EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nishant2200]

Q, I have been reading old IV posts, the original EB2-EB3 Predictions thread. I kind of wanted to see the legacy and how this blog took birth. A lot of things make sense to me now.

Thanks for making this a safe haven for fellow aspirants, to freely, speak their minds, and understand this intricate process. To not fear asking questions. To not burn anyone on the stake.

I am late to this party, just beginning to get a grasp of the glorious stage you, Teddy, and various other heroes I see on IV set. I hope their avatars are still lingering on here.

To boldly go where no one has gone before, with the enigmatic 'Q' of Star Trek, this time on your side.

[kaella]

I finally got greened. I have been regular visitor on this forum since it started

Checked mail box yesterday and found green cards for me and my wife and welcome letters for both.

Priority date : Apr 06 2007
Category : EB2
Approval date : Aug 02 2011

I wish good luck for all the folks waiting to be greened.

[gc_usa]

Two thing can happen this week. If bulletin get published early means DOS has less supply for sure than demand and no need to wait for whole week to see consumption rate till last minute. If it gets delay means they have higher or moderate supply and they want to see how USCIS can handle approval rate. Since August movement for backlogged country was not that great I see first one happening , bulletin may be released today or tomorrow itself.

[mesan123]

Congrats To you and your family...

I finally got greened. I have been regular visitor on this forum since it started

Checked mail box yesterday and found green cards for me and my wife and welcome letters for both.

Priority date : Apr 06 2007
Category : EB2
Approval date : Aug 02 2011

I wish good luck for all the folks waiting to be greened.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi,

My employer has not given my PERM and I-140 documents. Intially they said my PD is XX-XX-XXXX and now they are saying different date. How can i get my documents copy.
If I am not wrong we can use G-639 form to get information from USCIS. If yes please let me know to which address we need to send this form.


Thanks in advance.

[nishant2200]

Sep 2008, 2009 & 2010 bulletins dates:

Aug 8th 2008 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 june 06 to 8 august 06
Aug 10th 2009 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Oct 2003 to 8 Jan 2005, did not retro in Oct
Aug 9th 2010 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Mar 06 to 8 May 06

So past 3 years, sep bulletin only 5 business days ino week, always movement, and no retro in next October.

[GCDespo]

In the past fw years it moved atleast 2 months . So this year it may move 5-6 weeks since the demand is twice as thick , So I am gussing MAY20 or MAY 27. I hope there is a bigger movement though

[ssvp22]

Sep 2008, 2009 & 2010 bulletins dates:

Aug 8th 2008 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 june 06 to 8 august 06
Aug 10th 2009 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Oct 2003 to 8 Jan 2005, did not retro in Oct
Aug 9th 2010 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Mar 06 to 8 May 06

So past 3 years, sep bulletin only 5 business days ino week, always movement, and no retro in next October.

Restating the obvious, but we are on the 6th working day. Hope it comes today and we get done with it once for good and sit out and wait till May 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy if its a belief then that is where we can't have a rational argument. If its belief then that's the end of the road for either agreement or disagreement.

Depending on how much is already consumed will change the explanation for low consumption in August. In my judgement this is artificially subdued. Its possible they artificially subdued it to make a case for a BTM. We will see ... "Dilli Door Nahin!".



Teddy I think we are in strong agreement. ROW consumption this year for EB2 is slightly higher than last year. Plus the ROW EB2 allocation is less - resulting in less SOFAD contribution overall.

On another note .... where you been !

p.s. - Until Friday when i checked trackitt data, it was still showing favorable EB1 EB2ROW trend. Just today I checked it again and it shows 19 EB1 approvals and 14 EB2ROW approvals in first 7 days of August. That is indeed a worrisome rate. On other hands EB2IC have had close to 45 approvals in first 2 weeks.

Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. I agree we differ by a wide margin on the perception of how much SOFAD is used. There was a discussion between me and Veni several posts back even he tended to agree with the 30K consumption till Aug.

Thanks for your predictions even Iam praying for BTM. I agree with you ROW consumption will be higher I believe we look at Trackitt differently I go by the "485 Approval Denial date" while I believe as you mentioned you look at the last update date that’s causing the discrepancy. I use primary applicant only in addition to the date filter for the 485 approval / denial date.

Nishant, sometimes I just feel plain lucky that people liked objective analysis and then they felt it worthwhile to join hands and actively contribute. Many from the beginning continue to participate. Especially Teddy, who still runs a great thread on IV by the same name and of course is our Guru as well

Thanks for your kind words.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

I am not saying BTM is certainty. But I do think Jul 8th has a very decent chance.

As per 30 K consumption - I think you are assuming that all of May-Jul visas are allocated. That doesn't seem to be the case when you look so many cases pending that are current in trackitt. Cross the fingers

Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. I agree we differ by a wide margin on the perception of how much SOFAD is used. There was a discussion between me and Veni several posts back even he tended to agree with the 30K consumption till Aug.

Thanks for your predictions even Iam praying for BTM. I agree with you ROW consumption will be higher I believe we look at Trackitt differently I go by the "485 Approval Denial date" while I believe as you mentioned you look at the last update date that’s causing the discrepancy. I use primary applicant only in addition to the date filter for the 485 approval / denial date.



Thanks for your kind words.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

I am not saying BTM is certainty. But I do think Jul 8th has a very decent chance.

As per 30 K consumption - I think you are assuming that all of May-Jul visas are allocated. That doesn't seem to be the case when you look so many cases pending that are current in trackitt. Cross the fingers

Q I agree with you Trackitt approvals do not indicate that all cases have been approved but looks like at some point they will be approved prior to Sep end so both ways are different approaches to look at the same thing. However by your approach there is a possibility that if there are some genuine issues with the cases that are current they can move further this is the silver lining that I see. I agree BTM will always be in the speculative domain there can be no certainty around it, we can only pray for it. All the best to you on your personal front, we all hope to hear your good news this week. 8th Jul is also a great point to settle down it will be 14 months of movement from last year through one of the densest zones.

[superdesi2100]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[qblogfan]

Search USCIS FOIA in google.

I got all my PERM/140 documents through FOIA.

I waited for almost six months. FOIA has a huge backlog of 8000 or sth.

Not only GC has backlog, FOIA also has backlog, everything is slow in the immigration agencies.

Hi,

My employer has not given my PERM and I-140 documents. Intially they said my PD is XX-XX-XXXX and now they are saying different date. How can i get my documents copy.
If I am not wrong we can use G-639 form to get information from USCIS. If yes please let me know to which address we need to send this form.


Thanks in advance.

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Thanks for posting the I+C demand is just in the excess of 8K. If we assume that a cap number was attached to every case that does not figure here then let’s do a rough calculation of SOFAD consumed. When this year started we saw 34K as the total on the demand data, so 34-8 = 26K is the absolute reduction in the demand data. If we assume 4-6K of porting then definitely 30K or more SOFAD has been consumed or cap number allocated. Looks like the VB will come out in a day or two now, all the very best to everyone.

[qblogfan]

thanks for posting.

we need 8000 visa numbers to finish 2007 July fisaco.

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[Spectator]

Q I agree with you Trackitt approvals do not indicate that all cases have been approved but looks like at some point they will be approved prior to Sep end so both ways are different approaches to look at the same thing. However by your approach there is a possibility that if there are some genuine issues with the cases that are current they can move further this is the silver lining that I see. I agree BTM will always be in the speculative domain there can be no certainty around it, we can only pray for it. All the best to you on your personal front, we all hope to hear your good news this week. 8th Jul is also a great point to settle down it will be 14 months of movement from last year through one of the densest zones.

Teddy,

I agree with your summary.

One element we have never taken into account is any approvals direct from LO when the PD was Current at time of interview.

These are cases that DOS would have not had foreknowledge of and would be in addition to the apparent drop in Demand.

The numbers may appear to be small compared to EB3, but they are not zero. In an end game where the numbers are close, those may have a role to play.

September Demand figures are exactly as expected. I had already filled them in in my spreadsheet and was within 75 on all figures for EB2.

Time to wait for the VB itself!

[nishant2200]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

I always get beat to this by someone

Thank you. 8000 left, hopefully they reduce it by half to 4k in this FY. Then if EB1 is merciful, stage is set for a tipping/decision point in around May 2012.

[skpanda]

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

[velugc]

I always get beat to this by someone

Thank you. 8000 left, hopefully they reduce it by half to 4k in this FY. Then if EB1 is merciful, stage is set for a tipping/decision point in around May 2012.

Sep demand data out ... Start Music...

[gchopeful123]

Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

Also why are there ONLY 275 cases between Jan 2008 and Jan 2011 i.e 8275 - 8000.

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[whereismygclost]

appropiate song ...."who let the dogs out???"

Sep demand data out ... Start Music...

[natvyas]

Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

I was looking at the Aug demand data this morning (waiting for the Sept Demand Data) and EB2 India was around 6400.

[qesehmk]

Sep will reduce it but then new demand will flow in. So it can go eitherway. The reason being demand data is "documentarily qualified".

EB2ROW is zero which looks strange.

BTM will be common for EB2IC. But if there is no BTM then in 2012 FY EB2C will have much faster SFM compared to EB2I. Makes sense?

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

[nishant2200]

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

Very very astute observation. I can't think of any hole in this. I think they need to do BTM for EB2 C right now! At the very worst in October when they show that demand is, let's say only 2600 (taking into account 1000 approvals as well as 400 chinese PWMB, just a hypothetical scenario), which is less than 2800, which China is projected to consume easily. And their BTM's B would be bigger than us potentially.

[vchirakala]

Hi Everyone,

So can someone predict the cut off date for September bulletin based on this link ....

Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

Also why are there ONLY 275 cases between Jan 2008 and Jan 2011 i.e 8275 - 8000.