EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

PERM data is a snapshot in time on a particular day. Please understand this first. Next, DOL go by fiscal year and not Calendar year. So your case was in FY 2008 hence it shows up in 2008 file.

The day DOL collects the PERM data determines what it certified-expired and what is certified. Case approved more than six months ago from the date of snapshot is certified-expired while others are certified.

[nishant2200]

Agree. We both typing same time. See above this post of urs for link to rule info about PERM expiry.

nishant, this data are purely green card labor data and don't include H1B labor. If you click the link(http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) you will see following as first line..
Permanent Program Data

The data available for the Permanent Labor Certification Program is for applications that have been received and entered into the Department of Labor tracking system. On your left hand navigation there is link to see H1B labor..

[qesehmk]

Guys .... great discussion on economy ...

Moved to the General Immigration Thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ion-Discussion

[belmontboy]

Qesehmk,

Any news from the source about Sep VB?
If no, when can we expect to know something?

[whereismygclost]

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

[nishant2200]

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

[chirag.n]

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

[veni001]

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Just looking at PWMB PERM breakdown, EB2IC - new filers (not counting porting and dependents who missed July 2007) for August 2011 should be less than 500.

[qesehmk]

Agree w all of you. I think its fear mongering .... especially the talk about portings doesnt make sense given what we saw this year and given where economy is headed.

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Just looking at PWMB PERM breakdown, EB2IC - new filers (not counting porting and dependents who missed July 2007) for August 2011 should be less than 500.

[username]

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 8th 2007 min.
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008
gchopeful123-------- 1st Oct 2007
username------------ greater than Nov 2007

[leo07]

It's just an attorney trying to make quick money off his client's worst fears. 99% of immigrants would just be waiting to become current and file 485 ASAP. This guys might have had clients who have not filed yet.

This specific site, had always been a shady one for me. The two reasons he mentioned are absolute no-brainers, any novice EBIC immigrant would know that.

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

[veni001]

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

Here is some more clarification on Entrepreneur Visa....

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...ent?source=toc

It is clear that EB2IC-entrepreneur has to wait it line unless he/she can recapture PD from previous i140.

[cantwaitlonger]

It is clear that EB2IC-entrepreneur has to wait it line unless he/she can recapture PD from previous i140.

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

[nishant2200]

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

I/C entrepreneur can be charged to ROW only if he marries someone who is not born in I/C , also we are assuming the I/C ent is either single or willing to get divorced

you can't change your place of birth.

[iamdeb]

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 8th 2007 min.
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008
gchopeful123-------- 1st Oct 2007
username------------ greater than Nov 2007
iamdeb -------- Current

I guess this prediction is for EB2IC category only.

[qesehmk]

That is true. And the fact that enterprenuer needs to wait in line (long or short or current) makes one question then how is it different than EB2 unless one can self-sponsor by opening a business. And even if self-sponsorship is allowed then really how many people will qualify? So overall as somebody said earlier - this looks like just some show-and-tell move by USCIS without much substance.

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

[username]

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..

----------------FY2011--------FY2010--------FY2009--------FY2008------FY2007---------FY - 2006
Oct------------5/8/2006------1/22/2005-----4/1/2003-----4/1/2004-----6/15/2002-----11/1/1999
Sep-----------4/15/2007-----5/8/2006------1/8/2005-----8/1/2006-----4/1/2004-------1-Jan-03
Total Days----342-----------471-------------648-----------852-----------656-------------1157


Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

[qesehmk]

Bravo! That's what we call facts based discussion. Right .... wrong ... .who agrees or disagree doesn't matter.

Great insight!

P.S. - I think Oct is the start of USCIS FY and Sep is the end of FY. If so please update original post to clarify.
To stress again why I like this is because generally speaking law of regression kicks in and so over time we will see different statistics converge to the averages. Doesnt mean it will happen this year. But helps to understand big picture and most probably course of action.

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..
FY - 2011 FY - 2010 FY - 2009 FY - 2008 FY - 2007 FY - 2006
Oct 5/8/2006 1/22/2005 4/1/2003 4/1/2004 6/15/2002 11/1/1999
Sep 4/15/2007 5/8/2006 1/8/2005 8/1/2006 4/1/2004 1-Jan-03
Total Days 342 471 648 852 656 1157

Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

[srimurthy]

I would love to see the 2006 kind of movement of 1157 days - that would make it June'2009.

[nishant2200]

misunderstanding. I thought cantwaitlonger is saying I/C can be charged to ROW somehow. I think he is saying that ROW can benefit from this, which is true. Veni was also only saying for I/C btw.

I/C entrepreneur can be charged to ROW only if he marries someone who is not born in I/C , also we are assuming the I/C ent is either single or willing to get divorced

you can't change your place of birth.

[rahil1]

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..

----------------FY2011--------FY2010--------FY2009--------FY2008------FY2007---------FY - 2006
Oct------------5/8/2006------1/22/2005-----4/1/2003-----4/1/2004-----6/15/2002-----11/1/1999
Sep-----------4/15/2007-----5/8/2006------1/8/2005-----8/1/2006-----4/1/2004-------1-Jan-03
Total Days----342-----------471-------------648-----------852-----------656-------------1157


Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

But last year there were fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k

[leo07]

Good one.

The way you determined that dates would move to 8/22/2007, by looking at spec's table(??) is agreeable.
Number of days moved in previous years, is a relatively unstable parameter to depend upon. Because the movement is based, at least on two high-level variables, X & & Y. X being the SOFAD and Y being the number of applications in that particular date range.

It's definitely encouraging to see a different perspective. Good Luck!

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..

----------------FY2011--------FY2010--------FY2009--------FY2008------FY2007---------FY - 2006
Oct------------5/8/2006------1/22/2005-----4/1/2003-----4/1/2004-----6/15/2002-----11/1/1999
Sep-----------4/15/2007-----5/8/2006------1/8/2005-----8/1/2006-----4/1/2004-------1-Jan-03
Total Days----342-----------471-------------648-----------852-----------656-------------1157


Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

[Gclongwait]

But last year there were fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k

The spillover was also much lesser. I believe it was about 20K last year. This year we are sure of atleast 30K

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .

[nishant2200]

u said it. engineering days, copying notes, mugging up huge texts on electromagnetics - and I still can't explain how antennas work... sigh

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September . It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year .