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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #5401
    Surely Visa Bulletin will surprise again by moving one year forward.

  2. #5402
    Isn't that they put out the bulletin sometime like 11th or 12th of August ??

  3. #5403
    nishant,

    why is that the dates stop moving after (or rather move 1 or 2 weeks) after September bulletin?

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    natvyas, this is usual for them to update the page on the early first week of the month.

    It does not necessarily imply anything about the timeline of the bulletin release, IMHO.

    But good information regardless, keep the news coming! At least it means there will be a bulletin

  4. #5404
    I like you positive attitude Sunil

  5. #5405
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    you got to be kidding me... mine is same PD ssvp... and dont be so pessimistic ss bhai... according to Q, we should be cool by end of Q1 2012...
    Q, is there any way that you can scoop all the profile names and corresponding priority dates (from 'View profile') of this close knit community that we have here? or is it a Personally Identifiable Information violation? You can post in FACTS and DATA section

    As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August.
    Why did you let him go to India this FY? 'Cali Baba' could've waited until start of FY2012, as not many of us would be breathing on his neck come October VB

  6. #5406
    vchirakala,
    After September Bulletin, new FY 2012 will begin, with the October Bulletin.

    There is a limit of how many visas can be allocated per Quarter to retrogressed countries like India or China, out of their maximum quota of approx 2800 visas. If the Family Based categories of these retrogressed countries, don't consume their share completely, then in Employment based, they may obtain more than their 2800, like for example South Korea benefits from this.

    Now, as rough idea, if you divide 2800 by a quarter, that is just around 700 for three months.

    When the dates became Current for everyone in July 2007, there were many people whose labor was not yet approved, and hence they could not file the concurrent I-140 and I-485. Also many people were bachelors at that time, who are now married, and their spouse needs to file yet. Some may be unfortunate to not have all the documents ready or some other critical reason, due to which they could not submit their applications. We call these people PWMB (People who missed the boat).

    So as dates are moving back again into the mid 2007 territory, these people are getting eligible to file, this is new demand.

    Some folks in EB3 upgrade to EB2, hence again this is new demand in the above eligible timeline.

    This new demand, as and when gets discovered, leads to constant consumption of the 700 visas.

    Hence dates don't move much in the beginning.

    Now in last Quarter, there is no restriction on visas being allocated to retrogressed countries, if there is projection of un-used visas from other categories. As well as there is no restriction on visas in earlier quarter, if it's officially declared that a certain category is not going to use all its visas and how much they are releasing. Hence, accordingly dates can move fast.

    Quote Originally Posted by vchirakala View Post
    nishant,

    why is that the dates stop moving after (or rather move 1 or 2 weeks) after September bulletin?
    Last edited by nishant2200; 08-03-2011 at 03:24 PM.

  7. #5407
    Quote Originally Posted by vchirakala View Post
    Thx soggadu. May be another 1 year to get my EAD atleast ;-(
    For us EAD is not useful. We still need to stay with the present company for 180 days of pending I485. By the time, we are eligible for jumping out, we might be greened.

  8. #5408
    Quote Originally Posted by rahil1 View Post
    I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"
    If companies are hiring like 1999,

    the unemployment rate won't stay at 9% level, even more specific to our EB the h1b quota should have been already exhausted.

    yes, IT sector hiring may be better than other sectors (i haven't read the article you suggested yet) but my statement was just on overall economy and I re-presented it, not derived

  9. #5409
    Thanks nishant for a wonderful reply.

  10. #5410
    you are right...but atleast we know we will get it in near future after we get EAD.

  11. #5411
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    bieber,

    The Q2 file was released on 4/29/2011, so it should be any time now.

    My only worry is that if all resources are diverted to sorting out the PWD mess, the publication might be delayed.
    Thanks Spec

  12. #5412
    Quote Originally Posted by natvyas View Post
    Beiber

    stats suggest that unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree is around 4.6% and the same of people with High Schoool degree and lower is around 10.2%

    This explains why the PERM filings continue to remain high
    Very very very good response... makes so much sense in the present scenario... arre tabhi 2008 aur 2009 mein bhi perm filings 30K se voopar hein...

  13. #5413

    Post PERM Real Data with Case Status: CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED, DENIED, WITHDRAWN, etc

    This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

    I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

    It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

    The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

  14. #5414
    Quote Originally Posted by username View Post
    The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.
    may be because fy begins in october

  15. #5415
    Hi
    How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxx

    Quote Originally Posted by username View Post
    This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

    I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

    It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

    The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

  16. #5416
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    arre tabhi 2008 aur 2009 mein bhi perm filings 30K se voopar hein...
    fy2007 85k
    fy2008 49k
    fy2009 29k
    fy2010 70k
    fy2011(H1) 35k

  17. #5417
    http://www.kkeane.info/all-faqs/gene...ame-thing.html



    Quote Originally Posted by vchirakala View Post
    Hi
    How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxx

  18. #5418
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    Quote Originally Posted by vchirakala View Post
    Hi
    How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxx
    vchirakala,

    I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

    I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  19. #5419
    Quote Originally Posted by rahil1 View Post
    I think we should not be too concerned about unemployment rate. It doesn;t mean much. The unemployment for people in IT is 3.5 which means.. no unemployment
    if you plot the perm numbers from my previous post and compare it with DOW, you will be amazed with the corelation (just an observation)

  20. #5420
    I know we already have this details in our thread, but just pasting this link for newbie's like me for whom it is little easy to decode...


    http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

    It is EB1 approval denial nd RFE for 2010

  21. #5421
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    vchirakala,

    I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

    I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.
    Guys, I need some help here

    the flc data center, says my case is certfied-expired. What does this mean. I still work for the same employer, never changed anything with it. the uscis case status stays the same, approved i-140. What can be the reason why it says certified expired.

  22. #5422
    They all supposed to be marked as expired after 180 days. don't worry.

    Quote Originally Posted by murali83 View Post
    Guys, I need some help here

    the flc data center, says my case is certfied-expired. What does this mean. I still work for the same employer, never changed anything with it. the uscis case status stays the same, approved i-140. What can be the reason why it says certified expired.

  23. #5423
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    They all supposed to be marked as expired after 180 days. don't worry.
    Thanks Nishant for explaning.

  24. #5424
    Guys trackitt based predictions updated. Pls check out ... http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

    In summary I am holding to a movement at least to 8th July 2007 for EB2IC in september bulletin.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  25. #5425
    If these guys are also doing EB2, porting will get a boost . 6k estimated by Teddy doesn't seem far fetched then.

    Quote Originally Posted by kolugc View Post
    Some positive notes

    Hiring Like It's 1999
    The tech boom is fueling a surge in jobs and creative recruiting

    http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...-08012011.html

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