EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[natvyas]

True....infact I look forward to their analysis more than the VB itself......its like watching tendulkar bat, rather than see the number of runs he scored....

[veni001]

So it means we are still on course for the at least 4k SOFAD more, if I am interpreting correctly.?

Could very well be

Veni,
Just a quick clarification: in your SOFAD calculation, you have 18K FD from EB1. From the above EB1 data, the yearly demand is estimated to be 25K; in that case we should be expecting 15K FD from EB1, right? Or in other words, the FY11 SOFAD for EB2-I/C will reduce by 3K from your estimate of 39K (i.e. ~around 36K). Or, in other words, we will have around 4K remaining for the Sep bulletin. Am I interpreting the data correctly?

Good question,
Considering the current 485 processing times, EB1 demand could verywell be from the approvals until end of July (today), which is about 21K. In this case EB2IC could get upto 19K from EB1

These are 140 approvals.....does this mean these applicants are documentarily qualified as well? Will USCIS to able to attach a visa to all the applicants in time?
Regards
Nat

See my response above, USCIS my be able to attach a VISA number for the approvals until July 2011 from FY 2011 quota.

[whereismygclost]

bottom line guys ..whats the prediction final date for sep visa bulletin? as per spec's table 7k will lead to almost 1-Aug-2007? or is it only 4K?

[natvyas]

Could very well be



Good question,
Considering the current 485 processing times, EB1 demand could verywell be from the approvals until end of July (today), which is about 21K. In this case EB2IC could get upto 19K from EB1



See my response above, USCIS my be able to attach a VISA number for the approvals until July 2011 from FY 2011 quota.

This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

[veni001]

This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

natvyas,
19k is total Spillover possible from EB1 to EB2IC for FY2011.

[familyguy]

Guys, it looks like only 4401 (RFE) applications are pending.. which means we can get FY2011 kind of SOFAD in FY2012 as well... did i miss something?

[nishant2200]

This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

I think anywhere from 4k to 7k. 19k - 12k already got is 7k.

[whereismygclost]

so sept visa bulletin anywhere from 22-Jun-07 till 01-Aug-07?

this is spec's table :
22-Jun-07 -- 1,207 -- 2,665 -- 3,872 ---- 424
01-Jul-07 -- 1,371 -- 3,048 -- 4,419 ---- 547
08-Jul-07 -- 1,758 -- 3,409 -- 5,167 ---- 748
15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,534 -- 4,132 -- 6,666 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,089 -- 4,649 -- 7,738 -- 1,072

I think anywhere from 4k to 7k. 19k - 12k already got is 7k.

[nishant2200]

Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.

[TeddyKoochu]

For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on Trackitt for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.
I agree with Veni on the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K (From all sources) left for September. Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on Trackitt. I believe that the line for the September bulletin if its truely for approval puposes will be somewhere in Jun 2007.

[neospeed]

Not only Eb1 usage we also need to look at eb2 row-M-P usage for overall sofd

[veni001]

Veni

I am in the process of learning number crunching . Please bear with my questions .

you have completely omitted 5.6 K IC quota from the totals ( If not pls clarify)

If so ......then SOFAD = 140K- { (55345-4.8)*2 + (5.6) }

= approx 33k

Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.

[iatiam]

Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on Trackitt for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.
I agree with Veni on the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K (From all sources) left for September. Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on Trackitt. I believe that the line for the September bulletin if its truely for approval puposes will be somewhere in Jun 2007.

garibi mei atta gila

sometimes I wish I was born few months earlier, would have been then in early mid 2007 PD, if all other laws of physics hold true.

[veni001]

Guys, it looks like only 4401 (RFE) applications are pending.. which means we can get FY2011 kind of SOFAD in FY2012 as well... did i miss something?

DOL data shows surge in PERM filing ( discussed few pages back) so EB2 ROWMP will be key for net 2012 SOFAD calculations. We need to wait until Q3-Q4 PERM data release.

bottom line guys ..whats the prediction final date for sep visa bulletin? as per spec's table 7k will lead to almost 1-Aug-2007? or is it only 4K?

Looks like good possibility for upto 7k, at this point!

Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.

Agree, but it's hard to believe in USCIS based on their history.

[veni001]

Full year demand 101K does not include 5.6 K correct ? so where is that 5.6K ?

Kanmani,
5.6k is part of the net SOFAD(39k) or you can break it as

EB2IC regular quota - 5.6k and,
SOFAD from EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5 - 33.4k

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.

Nishant the possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.

[bieber]

garibi mei atta gila

sometimes I wish I was born few months earlier, would have been then in early mid 2007 PD, if all other laws of physics hold true.

on a lighter note, if all the laws hold true, everybody else would have been earlier too, so your net position remains unchanged

[bieber]

Full year demand 101K does not include 5.6 K correct ? so where is that 5.6K ?

It's in the 39k

Total EB2IC = 39k, quota = 5.6k, Spillover from Eb5,Eb1,Eb2-ROW is 39 - 5.6 = 33.4k

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.

Veni I believe you should use 2.25 as the dependent factor, 2 maybe very liberal, this will actually reduce the SOFAD by 12K.

[soggadu]

Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

Very good deed done by you... Welcome to the forum officially...

[qesehmk]

garibi mei atta gila

cute one! I will say ... "uskee chapati banao". Be a cat that falls on its four feet no matter from where it falls down.

[qesehmk]

IATIAM .... you have a large heart. God bless you.

Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

[soggadu]

Thank you Veni for the breakdown and clarification . It makes sense now .
I thought Spill over visas are extra numbers from other EB classifications . I just learnt the usual quota is also included in the SOFAD .


Thank you Bieber

JJ bhai i think SO is spilover which we get from EB1/ROW etc and SOFAD is term used to include across and down spillover which means everything included from inside and out...

[soggadu]

Veni I believe you should use 2.25 as the dependent factor, 2 maybe very liberal, this will actually reduce the SOFAD by 12K.

Teddy.... veni might have used 2 because this ratio is applied for all over EB category than just EB2 IC... just wondering...