EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

Jr.Q bhai(bro)...Awesome, we would be looking at least Aug 01 2007 in Sep then... don't know how to bless in Chinese...but b blessed for all the info you bring to us....

[indiaeb2]

cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.

[Spectator]

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[soggadu]

cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.

i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...

[soggadu]

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade.

You are so very amazing...thanks a ton for these numbers...

[leo07]

Since you already have numbers in Excel sheet, you can add one more column that indicates , when a given EB2I PD could get out of the system, keeping the 16k intake/year constant.
It's averaging about 4.5 years now, but that page would help lot of people.

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[BamBam]

I did my renewal with US Address for both current and permanent

In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.

[qblogfan]

It is very interesting analysis.

Great work!

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[BamBam]

Wow! Great work. I wonder what it would be for EB3.....

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[srimurthy]

great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)

[nishant2200]

http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pw.../591d_2010.pdf just in case we need a break from regular activities...

dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

[soggadu]

dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

yes...thanks to sum guy on trackitt... this shows how badly US needs to amend the current immigration laws...

[soggadu]

great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)

nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....

[nishant2200]

Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

feel like crying, banging my head. man if only the number was not slightly lower than the demand left, but a bit higher, if only FB had given something. or maybe just being within reach of certain percentage is enough for CO to go for a BTM. Or maybe he will be cautious and let this new intake (PWMBs, dependents, porting, few pre-adj which maybe/will be left out in FY 2011) play its course out for the first 6 months of FY 2012.

[srimurthy]

nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....

nap because I need to wake up and keep reading Q's blog.

[bieber]

Spec

do you mind sharing your exisintg calculations for expected 485 demand in fy2008,fy2009,fy2010,fy2011

[Pdmar08]

I have heard rumors that CO refers to this blog to validate his numbers...sort of peer review

dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

[Pdmar08]

Aur isi prakar Qblog ka dohra shatak poora hua..bahut badhiya ballebaji
Xlation-This is it...Qblog completes a fine double ton.

[soggadufan]

i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

[soggadu]

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

[Monica12]

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

OMG! Soggadu... buddy !!! I'm so glad .... YIPPPPPPEEEEEE!!!!!!!

[Monica12]

thank you dost...i am flattered... Dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

lol!!!!!!!!

[soggadufan]

thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

hahahaha. "he" not "she"

[BamBam]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;

[soggadu]

hahahaha. "he" not "she"

damn itt.... kya kami thi meere laddu mein (last time prashad chadaya tha na)... why god why...

Jokes apart...thanks for your appreciation....have fun...this is a nice forum... people tolerate me... have any questions, shoot them... fab 4 r always there for us...