EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[nishant2200]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

Extremely well said. Makes complete sense.

[nishant2200]

btw, for those of you who want to find out comparable salaries being given in comparable companies or titles, positions etc, I found a website salaryquest.com, what these guys have done is grabbed the publicly available labor and PERM data for H visas and GC (you can get txt as well as mdb and data structure also explained on http://www.flcdatacenter.com/ and they have put it in their Database, and made search available against it.

I found it really really interesting, it is very genuine, I found my own stuff in it.

Might help give an insight on how much to ask employer in next raise, or if the employer is fleecing you, or if changing job, what these guys are already giving to foreign immigrants!

[leo07]

Thanks TK.

I can see your point. You are one of the few guys who never let any bias get-into your calculations, although you are very close to the date. I like it that way, actually.

I have a wide range though,as it could be any where b/n 8th June 2007 to 1st August 2007. I obviously don't prefer the low end.

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

[gc_usa]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

My take is, if they won't do BTM in sep then , its not likely to happen until July 2012 unless CO does qtr spillover. then it may happen in dec 2012 or march 2012 depends on available sofad and pwmb , porting demand.

[imdeng]

Excellent find Nishant. I have downloaded everything from FLCDataCenter for my research - but SalaryQuest is much easier to query. I wish they would give row-by-row details rather than just summary statistics.

btw, for those of you who want to find out comparable salaries being given in comparable companies or titles, positions etc, I found a website salaryquest.com, what these guys have done is grabbed the publicly available labor and PERM data for H visas and GC (you can get txt as well as mdb and data structure also explained on http://www.flcdatacenter.com/ and they have put it in their Database, and made search available against it.

I found it really really interesting, it is very genuine, I found my own stuff in it.

Might help give an insight on how much to ask employer in next raise, or if the employer is fleecing you, or if changing job, what these guys are already giving to foreign immigrants!

[self.coach]

USCIS has just announced that they are launching a new website which is intended to provide new data reports covering agency performance in a number of areas.

The website can be accessed at http://www.uscis.gov/data/.

Data Reports Available
Currently, there are ten data sets available on the website. Four of the data sets will be updated monthly; they include processing times and performance data for Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime.
Additionally, information about the total number of receipts and approvals by quarter and year-to-date for all form types will be published quarterly.

[self.coach]

The USCIS Ombudsman office has released a report and a recommendation to USCIS regarding changing policies with respect to I-765 Application for Employment Authorization Document (EAD) cases.

The Problem

Many employers and individuals who rely on EAD cards for employment find it frustrating that there are no reliable processing times for the EAD cards. For most employment with EAD cards, employment is authorized only when the employee has a valid EAD card. In other words, if an EAD card expires and a renewal is not filed on time (with or without fault of the employee) or if the EAD application takes long time to be approved, then the employee, upon expiration of the EAD card and while waiting for the renewal to be approved, must stop working. This brings a lot of difficulty to employees and employers.
USCIS is required to issue EAD cards within 90 days. However, often USCIS is not able to do so. Several years ago, local service centers were permitted to issue interim cards for EAD applications pending for more than 90 days. This option is not currently available and the only redress an EAD applicant has is to seek expedited processing of his or her EAD application. Expedited processing, however, is discretionary and unpredictable.

The Ombudsman’s Recommendations
To address some of the problems with the current EAD application process, the Ombudsman makes several recommendations to USCIS, after making a very thorough, interesting (for some) and somewhat critical review of the current EAD application review framework.
The Ombudsdam report, after reviewing the currently-available options for EAD applicants, and after concluding that such options are inadequate, makes five recommendations.
1. Establish methods at local USCIS offices where EAD applications can be resolved;
2. Establish a uniform processing time goal of 45 days for adjudication and 60 days for issuance of an EAD;
3. Improve monitoring and ensure real-time visibility through an automated system for tracking processing times;
4. Follow established internal procedures for issuing interim EADs in cases where background checks are pending; and
5. Issue replacement EADs with validity dates beginning on the date the old EAD expires.

[Spectator]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

Teddy,

I agree that 3-4k is a reasonable number, if approvals carry on as they have over recent months.

I suspect EB1 and EB2-ROW might slow slightly, so more might be available.

I think it is a bit of a stretch to clear the backlog entirely. Possibly it can get as far as 22JUL07 Cut Off Date, if the Chinese figure of 7k mentioned earlier today is correct.

I find that hard to say, knowing that your PD is 24 Jul 2007.

[Spectator]

We'll have to take into account total demand before 2008, which is 10,450.

Which btw, will NOT include PWMB after march 8th 2007 and spouses and children if any to the original 485 applications.

Leo,

My table is for September only, so it takes into account the 2.6k allocated in the August VB to EB2-IC, leaving 7.8-7.9k demand going into September itself.

The USCIS Inventory figures slightly overstate that number at 8.2k.

[leo07]

Thanks Spec. I appreciate it.

is it possible to assume that the delta(10450 - 8256 =2194 ), could be some PWMB's + spouses + new EB2ROW + porting in one month? ( i.e June 1st to July 10th 2011)
trying to see if it's even worth to reconcile those numbers. ( actually that 2194 could make or break lot of our cases )

Leo,

My table is for September only, so it takes into account the 2.6k allocated in the August VB to EB2-IC, leaving 7.8-7.9k demand going into September itself.

The USCIS Inventory figures slightly overstate that number at 8.2k.

[Monica12]

Hi Meso

Your question is little confusing. If you want to know , Aug Demand Data table shows 6400 as remaining demand and Why Spec's table shows 8256 ? If this is ur doubt the answer would be ............

DoS Demand data table shows demand after 08 Mar 07 ( cutoff date in July bulletin)

Spec's Demand data table shows demand after 15 Apr 07 ( Cutoff date in Aug bulletin)

6400 Vs 8256

6400 is India total only ( from Mar 07 to Aug 07)
8256 is India + China ( from Apr 07 to Aug 07)

Thanks for the clarity JJ bhai, I was confused about this too !

[soggadu]

guys..

someone on trackitt is arranging for a phone conference on GC issues, not a lawyer but might be one of those experienced persons... Just thought it might help some1 if i post it here...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I appreciate it.

is it possible to assume that the delta(10450 - 8256 =2194 ), could be some PWMB's + spouses + new EB2ROW + porting in one month? ( i.e June 1st to July 10th 2011)
trying to see if it's even worth to reconcile those numbers. ( actually that 2194 could make or break lot of our cases )

The delta on the Demand Data figure of 10,450 versus the USCIS Inventory would be 304 or 2.9% (USCIS Inventory = 10,754 for 08 March 2007 to end of backlog).

The 8,256 represents the number left on the USCIS Inventory after incorporating the movement of the Cut Off Date to 15APR07 in the August VB.

In fact I noticed a small mistake, so the 8,256 has become 8,159. Therefore the movement in August VB used 10,754 - 8,159 = 2,595 visas from the USCIS Inventory.

I will update the tables.

[leo07]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )

[soggadu]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )

Small correction...in order to move to Aug 1st 07 we need just 7835.. In order to approve all cases until Aug 01 2007 we would need what you mentioned... moving dates at this point doesnt really count PWMBs and Porting... think about it...

[Spectator]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )

Leo,

I have updated the tables now, so the figure to move to 01AUG07 Cut Off Date has become 7,738.

Given that the USCIS Inventory figures are slightly higher than the DOS Demand Data figures, then the numbers in the table probably incorporate some extra demand already. Personally, I doubt PWMB etc that can get approved in time will add up to 1k in September anyway.

As I said, treat the table as a ready reckoner and add what you feel is correct. If you think it needs another 1,000, then the the figure would become 8,738 to reach a Cut Off date of 01AUG07.

[neospeed]

http://translate.googleusercontent.c...30txQy9a1XFstQ

Found this in mitbbs. Im still going thu it.

[leo07]

Thanks Spec. I agree that 60 days is too less for any pwmb to grab a visa number. ( 30 days much less). 22nd July looks likely, but I'm thinking DOS would like to err on the higher side and 01 August 2007 is not very unrealistic at this time.

[neospeed]

Here is the actual link

http://translate.google.com/translat....mitbbs.com%2F

http://translate.google.com/translat...3a45b4548a4891

[ravisekhar]

qblogfan can you translate the above information correctly for us. We appreciate your help.

[leo07]

Thanks neospeed!!! I appreciate it.

One thing that a translation couldn't mess up and that conveys the gist of the messages is EB2-less-than-7000 for September. ( we were thinking of 3-10k anyways )

qblogfan, you are the man of the hour. Can you please translate and enlighten us

Here is the actual link

http://translate.google.com/translat....mitbbs.com%2F

http://translate.google.com/translat...3a45b4548a4891

[srimurthy]

Any idea if the govt shutdown will have an impact on the VBs, with the budget deficit discussions going on?

[leo07]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there LOL

Thanks neospeed!!! I appreciate it.

One thing that a translation couldn't mess up and that conveys the gist of the messages is EB2-less-than-7000 for September. ( we were thinking of 3-10k anyways )

qblogfan, you are the man of the hour. Can you please translate and enlighten us

[nishant2200]

Any idea if the govt shutdown will have an impact on the VBs, with the budget deficit discussions going on?

govt shutdown shall not affect USCIS which is a self-funded agency. CP will be affected as overseas consulates might stop issuing visas. DOL will be affected (PERM will not be done) as DOL is funded by government.

I do not think shutdown will happen, the country's credit rating is at stake. it's a political game and they will avoid by short term measures, until they get to actual one.

[leo07]

That is one of the last things that you need to worry now. CIS is almost funded by future-immigrants, self-sufficient with funds. DOS, is not, but since your dates are current, that might not be your worry