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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #4576
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    LOL ! PlainSpeak, tumhe sirf CO hee bachayenge
    Who is this CO you guys keep referrring too ...

  2. #4577
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    So, if the estimate is that there are 5K - 8K spillovers is still available, the dates might move to anywhere between beginning of July to mid Aug. Porting, PWMB, etc might push back the movement by a few weeks from the above calculation.

  3. #4578
    Quote Originally Posted by valuablehurdle View Post
    Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

    Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.
    The keyword here is Might

  4. #4579
    Quote Originally Posted by valuablehurdle View Post
    Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

    Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.
    WHAT...? OMG ! are you kidding me? I hope the Officers there don't know anything about the next VB...

  5. #4580
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlainSpeak View Post
    Who is this CO you guys keep referrring too ...
    PlainSpeak,

    CO is an abbreviation for Charles Oppenheim, the Head of the Visa Office. He is the man who is responsible for setting the Cut Off Dates in each Visa Bulletin.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #4581
    Yoda
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    I know I am moving aways from the thread in asking this Q, but better now when the VB is not out.
    A complany agreed to file H1 for my spouse on who is on H4. Does a H1 approval automatically change her status to from H4->H1, or only when we apply for a change of status that the H1 is considered active and till that time the H4 and i-94 are considered in status?
    Last edited by srimurthy; 07-19-2011 at 02:37 PM.

  7. #4582
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    I know I am moving aways from the thread in asking this Q, but better now when the VB is not out.
    A complany agreed to file H1 for my spouse on who is on H4. Does a H1 approval automatically change her status to from H4->H1, or only when we apply for a change of status that the H1 is considered active and till that time the H4 and i-94 are considered in status?
    COS - Change of status
    If H1 is approved COS is automatic.
    H1 approval with I94 card at the bottom. She is good.
    H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom. She has to go to home country for stamping and come back with stamp.
    Since this is COS she will have to wait for H1B approval papers in hand with I94 before she can start working.
    Last edited by PlainSpeak; 07-19-2011 at 03:05 PM.

  8. #4583
    Yoda
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    Thanks for the quick response.
    "H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom". If she doesn't go back to home country for stamping does that mean H4 and I94 are valid and status is active or she is out of status?

  9. #4584
    USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

  10. #4585
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Thanks for the quick response.
    "H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom". If she doesn't go back to home country for stamping does that mean H4 and I94 are valid and status is active or she is out of status?
    Last action rule willcome into effect. Last action rule states that which ever event happened last (latest) wil be used to determine the status of the case. In this case if 194 missing in approved H1B then she is has changed to H1B and needs to go to india to get stamping done before working and her H4 and H4 I94 is invalid. If you does nto go to india and doe snto work then she wil be on bench and out of status. In such case she can try and revert back to H4 based on your H1B. If H4 approved then H1B gets invalidated (Last Action rule) and she is back on H4
    Last edited by PlainSpeak; 07-19-2011 at 03:02 PM.

  11. #4586
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
    Was this expected ?

  12. #4587
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    we both have many things in common... human beings..men..indian..waiting for gc...simillar pd...first entry at same time... dude r u sure u r not that bichada hua twin of mine... yes, i went to the khumbh mela!!!!!!...
    Oh My God....i too went to Khumbh Mela ...ha ha..

  13. #4588

    just a tidbit on word "Soggadu"

    soggadu used to be yesteryear and late telugu hero shobhan babu nickname..he is very famous for his handsome looks and was know to be as "nuttokka jillaliki andadgadu"(most handsome person among 101 districts)...he was so attached to that name he didnt comeout in public in his later years so that people would always remember him as the handsome person...

  14. #4589
    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    Oh My God....i too went to Khumbh Mela ...ha ha..
    BREAKING NEWS: Q ke blog pe, bhai se bhai milay...chamtkar ho gaya !!!!
    Congrats, grnwtg and Soggadu !!!!!! LOL !
    Last edited by Monica12; 07-19-2011 at 03:09 PM.

  15. #4590
    Quote Originally Posted by PlainSpeak View Post
    The keyword here is Might
    "Might" is always possible for reasons unknown before the fact, and in fact, used to be a standard comment in all Visa Bulletins in employment based section notes. Last few bulletins are exceptions, they don't have any notes.

  16. #4591
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

    I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

    My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

    PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.
    Hi Qblogfan,

    Do you have a copy of the LCA filed for your PERM. They would have sent it to you for your signature. In that Perm you should see under what category they have filied your petition.

    Btw I hope & pray they filed it under EB2. I always grib about our GC journey as we are waiting to do an interfile between spouse on our 4th labour petition provided if the date comes current after 12 yrs of US stay. So dont give up & All the Best.

  17. #4592
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    "Might" is always possible for reasons unknown before the fact, and in fact, used to be a standard comment in all Visa Bulletins in employment based section notes. Last few bulletins are exceptions, they don't have any notes.
    I would say standard comment in employment based section notes in last few Vb is missing because that way there will be no way for EB community to anticipate if CIS moves the dates in in an unexpected direction or fashion. Keeps us in the dark and we have less to go on. All predictions are great and mathematically correct but when there is no guidance in VB, CIS has more leeway to go any way they want with the VB dates.

  18. #4593
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
    you beat me, I was going to check this soon
    Receipts are inline and approvals went up, overall pending isdown by 2k, wish they update this for June also
    Last edited by bieber; 07-19-2011 at 03:21 PM.

  19. #4594
    Quote Originally Posted by Monica12 View Post
    BREAKING NEWS: Q ke blog pe, bhai se bhai milay...chamtkar ho gaya !!!!
    Congrats, grnwtg and Soggadu !!!!!! LOL !
    yee bandhan toh gc wait ka bandhan hein... kya tumhara bhi sirr pe baal, aakhien laal, tondh gol hein kya... oh my god... i am super excited...
    Last edited by soggadu; 07-19-2011 at 03:26 PM.

  20. #4595
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
    This explains the Aug bulletin implicitly. If the overall number of I140 approvals rise the EB1 and EB2 ROW will also rise, so looks like they may focus on these categories to ensure that all the corresponding 485's are approved this FY itself. That may explain why the Aug bulletin was a bit guarded. The next inventory can give us some idea if EB2 ROW + EB1 Reduce.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

    It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

    It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

    -- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
    22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
    01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
    08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
    15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
    22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
    01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
    08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
    15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
    22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
    01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
    08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
    15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
    22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
    01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
    08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
    15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224


    I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.
    Great post Spec, what a huge difference betweeen Jun and Jul. Looks like with conservative estimate the dates might just touch June.

  21. #4596
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
    jokes apart, gurus please tell us how this new data is going to effect the 19K spare we are relying on?

  22. #4597
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    jokes apart, gurus please tell us how this new data is going to effect the 19K spare we are relying on?
    Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here

    The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.

  23. #4598
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here

    The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.
    i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

    P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...

  24. #4599
    Quote Originally Posted by soggadu View Post
    i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

    P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...
    sogaddu, I am flattered! If only my H1B mazdoori job or my naughty 3 year old would let me spend more time on analysis and crunching numbers, I could maybe try reach the heights of Spec, Teddy, Veni, Q....

    damn the EB1 and EB2 ROW, what bad economy, all these dudes are applying merrily .. grrrrr... just kidding

  25. #4600

    Post My 2 cents...

    I agree that it's a cautious move from CIS to not let EB2IC trump deserving EB2ROW & EB1 applications visas.

    However, they don't have to be cautious in the last month of the FY, i.e Sept bulletin. 30 days is barely sufficient for any PWMB to get through system. At the same time, 60 days is also a tight for Eb1/EB2-ROW to get cleared.

    I believe that DOS planned this throttle of flow for August-VB much before. Since they allotted sofad more or less equally for July-August-Septmeber in 2010, they tried to front-load this year. I still think there's at least 4-7 k of visas for EB2IC for the month of September alone.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here

    The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.

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