EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[ragx08]

cant crunch the numbers... so this is my way of contributing .... hope it is working...

Working? It rocks man!!!! Keep it going :-)

[qblogfan]

There are only 5500 China EB3 before 2007.08 and very few of them are porting.

I didn't see many porting cases on MITBBS.

Most of the China-PERM are for EB2 and very few of them are EB3. Many people also returned home after 2005.

The long wait has scared many people away.

With the FOIA request most importantly you will get your A#. All that is required to port is the A# to recapture the earlier date, Iam sure if you can find another employer if your case is not EB2 then you should be good to get GC by porting. Not worth going back after having toiled so much. I have a question for you though we always estimate porting for India and now I see even ROW folks are porting, how many Chinese folks are porting any idea?

[PlainSpeak]

I asked, but they didn't tell me. I asked for the PERM progress and they told me it's none of my business and I should not ask/interfere with the PERM process. That's another reason I didn't ask for too many details. I have been kept in the dark for six years. I found the FOIA method and went ahead to send a request to FOIA. I will get it soon. In a word, I am the stupidest man.

Yes it is better to not cause too much of an agaitation expecially if you got a FOIA going on but i am surprised that a company can deny a copy of 140 if not the origional.

Any way no call to call yourself stupid. It could have happened to anyone out here.

[Feb2008]

My 1st employer( I had to keep changing jobs ) didn't even want to file H-1b for me at the very beginning. I found out they only filed one year H-1b for me (I thought it was automatocally three years). Luckly, I was prepared and had secured a new job.
We must always always be prepared.

Never believe you are the top candidate for an job especially when you are on H1B visa. I had got selected for a new job and they stated they will provide documentataion for AC21 and suddenly out of the blue the offer was cancelled. Now when i see the ad for the same postion they ad says GC and Citizens only and thsi line was missing in the ad when i applied.

[Monica12]

I asked, but they didn't tell me. I asked for the PERM progress and they told me it's none of my business and I should not ask/interfere with the PERM process. That's another reason I didn't ask for too many details. I have been kept in the dark for six years. I found the FOIA method and went ahead to send a request to FOIA. I will get it soon. In a word, I am the stupidest man.

Nahhh... we all make mistakes, one time or another..especially when we are young. But the silver lining is that we learn from them..That's why old men are supposed to be wiser

[qblogfan]

No problem. I feel totally fine.

The truth is that I should be more careful, but I failed big time. It's a heavy price lesson.

The younger EB applicants should learn from my lesson.

Aplogies qbolgfan if this sounds like salt on the wound but the fact is stating what i stated in this specific case will be read by other people on this fourm and they at least wil be able to use that knowledge to better their situation

[Monica12]

Working? It rocks man!!!! Keep it going :-)

Soggadu, buddy !!!! You have another fan ....yipeeee !!! I thought I was the only one

[ragx08]

Never believe you are the top candidate for an job especially when you are on H1B visa. I had got selected for a new job and they stated they will provide documentataion for AC21 and suddenly out of the blue the offer was cancelled. Now when i see the ad for the same postion they ad says GC and Citizens only and thsi line was missing in the ad when i applied.

I disagree with you..... always believe that you are the best (Hum kisi se kum nahi!!!) - no mater what others think or say!!!!

[PlainSpeak]

Soggadu, buddy !!!! You have another fan ....yipeeee !!! I thought I was the only one

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

[Monica12]

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

PlainSpeak, Soggadu is probably blushing right now ..ha..haaa.

[soggadu]

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

soggadu is a telugu word for some one flamboyant i guess, didnt think about the meaning while choosing the name, have been using this name for long time... thank you rag, mon and ps...

[soggadu]

PlainSpeak, Soggadu is probably blushing right now ..ha..haaa.

aap bhi naa....

[Monica12]

aap bhi naa....

lol!!!!!!!

[srimurthy]

qblogfan and others...
Everyone was new to the process and had their own set of trials and errors. And atleast now we have this forum and other places to follow and learn. Earlier the data available may not have been so exhaustive. Even now for every step I have to follow up with 10 mails and 20 calls to initiate a response from the employer. Life goes on and we keep fighting.

[nishant2200]

19-20 days to go. Need to make a VB release ticker.

[Monica12]

19-20 days to go. Need to make a VB release ticker.

yeah... Nishant! We need a timer... 20 days still? Damn...

[soggadu]

wow, Next month I will also complete my 10 years in US.

we both have many things in common... human beings..men..indian..waiting for gc...simillar pd...first entry at same time... dude r u sure u r not that bichada hua twin of mine... yes, i went to the khumbh mela!!!!!!...

[PlainSpeak]

yeah... Nishant! We need a timer... 20 days still? Damn...

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

[soggadu]

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

kuch lethein kyoun nahi...

p.s. pun intended

[Monica12]

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

PlainSpeak, Sogaddu, you guys are fuunnny !!! I'm cracking up!
Chalo...till the gurus decide to banish us for trying to create a ruckus OR till the next number crunching starts OR till Sep VB comes out ..... we can atleast have some FUN!!!!
PS: Gurus PLEASE dont banish us ..LOL!

[Spectator]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

[PlainSpeak]

kuch lethein kyoun nahi...

p.s. pun intended

Was referring to the next VB

Chingari koi badake to sawan use bhujaye
Sawan jo aag lagaye usee koun bhujaye
usee koun bhujaye ..

H1B pe life tight thi t0o company ne GC shurru ki
Company ne EB3 me kar di mujhe koun bacahye
mujhe koun bacahye ..

[valuablehurdle]

Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.

[Monica12]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

Spec, this is GREAT! I was wondering how much spillover is rquired to reach my PD . Thank you

[Monica12]

Was referring to the next VB

Chingari koi badake to sawan use bhujaye
Sawan jo aag lagaye usee koun bhujaye
usee koun bhujaye ..

H1B pe life tight thi t0o company ne GC shurru ki
Company ne EB3 me kar di mujhe koun bacahye
mujhe koun bacahye ..

LOL ! PlainSpeak, tumhe sirf CO hee bachayenge