EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Hi Q, T, V,..... experts.

Have some questions for you guys

First our situation: We are one of those folks that are part of July 2007 fiasco with our pd in Dec 2007. To explain our pd, we had two cases and one with EB3I 2006 and EB2I Dec 2007 and we had to pick one because of an RFE. With no hopes of EB3, we selected EB2 2007. We both have our EAD and AP and way past the 180 day period.

Situation: Primary applicant now has a job offer in a different company with better pay + more but new company was told that they DON'T need to sponsor anything.
New employer need to support AC21

Problem: We are not sure whether the old company will pull out the I140 or not.
As long as you file AC21, this shouldn't be an issue.

What should we do. Is it better to let the new company know. From what I understand, At the 485 stage, we just need a job that matches the description and dont really need a company's sponshorship and hence we said "no" to requires sponsorship.
New employer doesn't have to start from scratch, but should support AC21

What happens if old company pulls out 140?As long as you file AC21, nothing happens.Otherwise you may receive RFE for employment offer/verification
What happens if old company does not and USCIS asks for job verification letter later when they are ready to process the file? You have(with help from employer) to submit AC21 documentation

What would you guys do?File for AC21 as soon as accepting new offer.

Please see my responses above!

[nishant2200]

I looked further into the inventory data. I checked the previous inventory reports.

Oct 2010: EB1-China has 1053 pending cases

Jan 2011: EB1-China has 1079 pending cases

June 2011: EB1-China has 1359 pending cases

You can see the EB1-China inventory number has been stable in the previous three inventory reports. Therefore, I think the decrease of EB1-China approvals in July is not a result of decreased demand. In the past, I could see approved EB-1 China cases almost everyday, but it is not happening any more in July. On that forum many EB1-China cases were submitted in Feburary, but they are still pending.

qbf, thanks for the info. everything helps in extrapolating the vision.

It must be a good place to be in for EB1 I or C in any case, you know the light is always at the end of the tunnel, albeit a few twist or turns maybe, unlike the rest of us still groping around!

[veni001]

Veni, this is good information. A while back I had posted on this forum, that for clear cut cases, I am seeing 2 months approval times, and not just for India, also for EB2-ROW. This confirms that hypothesis.

This also might indicate why CO might have chosen to have short movement in July, to limit the number of PWMBs who could get in and be eligible for demand. This may be taken as fuel to the fire about the meticulous planning being attempted to have a BTM in upcoming bulletin(s).

nishant2200,
Based on PERM certification breakdown for CY2007 after July 2007, there are not very many EB2IC PWMBs until June 2007.
Up-to 15APR2007(August 2011 Visa Bulletin) EB2IC PWMb should be about 1K !

[nishant2200]

nishant2200,
Based on PERM certification breakdown for CY2007 after July 2007, there are not very many EB2IC PWMBs until June 2007.
Up-to 15APR2007(August 2011 Visa Bulletin) EB2IC PWMb should be about 1K !

Got it, it removes a mis-conception from my head then. So are they in June to August 15th in a considerably higher number?

[nishant2200]

Got it, it removes a mis-conception from my head then. So are they in June to August 15th in a considerably higher number?

Acutally the link you have posted has my answer, very good information analysis. thanks. let me read through it and think over.

[veni001]

Got it, it removes a mis-conception from my head then. So are they in June to August 15th in a considerably higher number?

Acutally the link you have posted has my answer, very good information analysis. thanks. let me read through it and think over.

nishant2200,
EB2IC PWMB should be about1.5k per month in June'07 and July'07.
Aug'07-Dec'07 we will consider it as normal demand (since dates are never "C" for these PDs), EB2IC should average about 2.5k - 3.0k per month based on above PERM data.

[qesehmk]

Added to header one more explanation of why September may have about 19K numbers of which 5-10K could easily come to EB2IC.

[mesan123]

Is there a way to findout how many i-140 are approved in eb2( for years 2008,2009,2010 &2011). wanted to know the number of people waiting in this years. tnx in advance

[qblogfan]

Thanks for posting this information.

It makes perfect sense that Mr.Co moved August PD in a smaller step in order to control the PWMB approvals. Therefore, the number of visas can be saved for the next big jump.

I think Mr.Co and USCIS really want to clean the 2007 wave. It will make his book look good and his boss happy. It will be a win-win situation.

Noticed following approval posted in Murthy Forums
================================================== ====
Priority Date: June, 2006
Category: EB2
Country: India
I-485 Receipt Date (For me and Spouse): May 11th, 2011
FP Done: June 17th, 2011
I-485 approved and cards received (For me and Spouse): July 11th, 2011
================================================== =====

[veni001]

Is there a way to findout how many i-140 are approved in eb2( for years 2008,2009,2010 &2011). wanted to know the number of people waiting in this years. tnx in advance

nnnnn123,
We have monthly PERM approval and i140 receipts data since October 2008 posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

[veni001]

Thanks for posting this information.

It makes perfect sense that Mr.Co moved August PD in a smaller step in order to control the PWMB approvals. Therefore, the number of visas can be saved for the next big jump.

I think Mr.Co and USCIS really want to clean the 2007 wave. It will make his book look good and his boss happy. It will be a win-win situation.

qblogfan,
Let's hope that is the plan in both DOS/USCIS minds.

[mesan123]

to Veni:

thank you for the reply.

Based on the link you provided are there 66426(EB2 & EB3 for india and china together)? can you tell me how to know how many are eb2 out of this?

thanx in advance

[imdeng]

I had written earlier that the last VB actually made it more likely that there would be BTM - it seems the newly available data supports that. I think it will all get tied together with the fee receipts in the end. Who knew that USCIS/DoS actually have a plan and seems like a pretty good plan as well. Makes me almost hopeful for future, Almost.

[veni001]

to Veni:

thank you for the reply.

Based on the link you provided are there 66426(EB2 & EB3 for india and china together)? can you tell me how to know how many are eb2 out of this?

thanx in advance

nnnnn123,
Assuming all certified PERMs will make it to i140 stage, Calender Year(CY) monthly PERM breakdown(by Spec) will give you better picture of projected EB2IC demand.

I would take the following split(average) for EB2:EB3 (both I&C)
FY 2007 & 2008 - 65:35
FY 2009 & 2010 - 70:30
FY2011 forward - 75:25
You may also want to check PERM FY-CY Matrix.

[nishant2200]

nnnnn123,
Assuming all certified PERMs will make it to i140 stage, Calender Year(CY) monthly PERM breakdown(by Spec) will give you better picture of projected EB2IC demand.

I would take the following split(average) for EB2:EB3 (both I&C)
FY 2007 & 2008 - 65:35
FY 2009 & 2010 - 70:30
FY2011 forward - 75:25
You may also want to check PERM FY-CY Matrix.

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

[veni001]

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

nishant2200,
Your numbers are somewhat on the high side, If you look at EBIC PERM Certifications, CY2007 & CY2008 have almost same number of (I&C) PERM Certifications! If we use the known IC demand for 2007 and do the projections (Spec discussed this approach few pages back) then we are looking at an additional 10K EB2I and 4K EB2C demand until 01JAN2008. Same approach will yield about 30K EB2IC demand for CY 2008 (or about 7.5K per quarter).

You may want to check i140 to 485 ratios posted under FACTS AND DATA section(EB2 averaging about 2.04).

[qblogfan]

nishant, thanks for your analysis and hard work.

Your number is very close to my estimation. My number is a little lower than yours, but really close. Several months ago on MITBBS I estimated the demand before 6/30/2008 will be around 35k plus porting number.

Your logic makes perfect sense. My personal feeling is that in the next VB they may move PD exactly one year ahead-4/15/2008. Keep fingers crossed!

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

[nishant2200]

nishant2200,
Your numbers are somewhat on the high side, If you look at EBIC PERM Certifications, CY2007 & CY2008 have almost same number of (I&C) PERM Certifications! If we use the known IC demand for 2007 and do the projections (Spec discussed this approach few pages back) then we are looking at an additional 10K EB2I and 4K EB2C demand until 01JAN2008. Same approach will yield about 30K EB2IC demand for CY 2008 (or about 7.5K per quarter).

You may want to check i140 to 485 ratios posted under FACTS AND DATA section(EB2 averaging about 2.04).

nishant, thanks for your analysis and hard work.

Your number is very close to my estimation. My number is a little lower than yours, but really close. Several months ago on MITBBS I estimated the demand before 6/30/2008 will be around 35k plus porting number.

Your logic makes perfect sense. My personal feeling is that in the next VB they may move PD exactly one year ahead-4/15/2008. Keep fingers crossed!

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.

[imdeng]

I am thinking of a scenario that might have an effect on SOFAD calculations in future. Right now South Korea gets a lot of EB2 numbers (4793 in FY2010, compared to 19961 for India and 6505 for China, as per the DOS annual report) and should really be retrogressed - but avoids that fate because its FB+EB numbers are below the 7% threshold. Now, if it happens to hit that limit, then it will be subject to the usual EB2 quota of 2.8K and anything over that will be part of the backlog - so essentially 2K extra numbers for the across portion of SOFAD to India/China.

Do we know if Korea is close to hitting the 7% limit like India and China already have?

Update: Turns out that Korea's FB usage is really low - just 2592 in FY2010 compared to 16022 for India and 14551 for China - data from DOS annual report. So I guess its not hitting the 7% limit anytime soon. The 7% rule sucks BTW - its horrible that even in EB3, some countries get a lot more than 2.8K that India and China get. Similarly in EB2, Korea crosses 2.8K without any retrogression. Why link FB with EB - makes no sense!

[nishant2200]

imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.

[imdeng]

Regarding BTM - I know we are all wishing for a large BTM (or BAM as was suggested a few posts before) - we should keep in mind though that we actually would not want the BTM to be too large - it should be just enough to finish by the end of next spillover season with small enough gap between demand and supply (demand > supply) that the gap can be filled by CP and a new BTM can be generated for the year after.

In case the BTM right now is too large and the SOFAD next year is not large enough to cover it then at this time next year we will not have the possibility of the next BTM. This will be a bad situation because then we will not have pre-adjudicated cases for the 2014 spillover season.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi Gurus.

What is the chances of September VB. What will next PD in September VB.

Thanks,

Shreya

[imdeng]

Nishant - I personally don't have a problem with Koreans (or anybody) working crazy hours to file EB2 - but I have a problem with stupid rules that allow one country to be retrogressed for close to a decade and allow other countries to get more visas than the retrogressed countries.

BTW - the whole idea of a fixed numerical limit that is same for China and for Chad (less population than Shanghai itself) is completely ridiculous. Anyways - its just a rant - the rules are what they are - we need to work with the system - so lets get back to calculations and predictions. Great work on calculating demand sizes for different BTMs Nishant.

imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.

[qblogfan]

I have the same feelings with you. I have no issue with other ethnic groups. Some South Koreans can get EB2 in several months, but China/India applicants need to wait for at least 4-5 years. Our waiting time is almost 10 times of South Koreans. Every year a large number of South Korean applicants can get EB2 done in several months. Even for EB3, China EB3 only has several thousand demand, but the PD for China EB3 only moved 1 week in this bulliten. Indian EB3 applicants have to wait for ten years or more to get a green card. Many people gave up opportunities to visit family back in India/China because of the long wait of GC. Many Indian/China applicants have to stay on the same position for ten years or more. This system is not humane at all. The purpose of this 7% limit is to keep a balance of immigration from different countries, but it does not help much because several millions Mexican folks already crossed border without paper work. This 7% rule was designed to prevent the appearance of a dorminant immigration group, but it already failed big time.

I wish all the Indian/Chinese EB2/EB3 applicants can end this long wait and get GC as soon as possible.

Nishant - I personally don't have a problem with Koreans (or anybody) working crazy hours to file EB2 - but I have a problem with stupid rules that allow one country to be retrogressed for close to a decade and allow other countries to get more visas than the retrogressed countries.

BTW - the whole idea of a fixed numerical limit that is same for China and for Chad (less population than Shanghai itself) is completely ridiculous. Anyways - its just a rant - the rules are what they are - we need to work with the system - so lets get back to calculations and predictions. Great work on calculating demand sizes for different BTMs Nishant.

[qblogfan]

Your updated version is perfect! Thanks for your analysis.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and see what will happen in the next VB.

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.