Not sure what this is. On USCIS website, NSC I-140 are now current. They were slightly backlogged some time back. TSC is still showing backlogged about 9 - 4 = 5 months. Although I have seen trackiitt approvals even though the priority dates were ahead of those shown on the website. I dont think these times are updated properly.Originally Posted by neospeed
Gclongwait,
The processing times in the document are for cases sent to the Administrative Appeals Office (AAO) after a denial is appealed. They are notoriously slow, but it is interesting to see the latest figures.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Most cases actually get approved before the processing dates, the dates are set quite liberally to have buffer time for the agencies and to dissuade people from calling.
Thanks. That explains it. I also was puzzled that those wait times didn't make any sense.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Looks like everybody is having chilled talk...Good to take a break
Need help. I was trying to see how the gurus are doing the calculations so naturally started with my own case PD MAR 2008.
Assuming current PD is Mar2007, i added all the Perms filed between April 2007 and March 2008.(including both months and all approvals not post august alone).
But these are I+C and EB2+EB3.
Do we have guestimate proportions for these to arrive at EB2I PERM cases? I was assuming 50-50 EB2-EB3 split and 20-80 C-I split. I am assuming 0 I140 rejections.
I know i will have to multiply the resulting number by 2.5-3for I485 application. Also will have to consider CP, Porting, others?
Am i on the right track?
Does Porting numbers making really any difference ?? Personally I doubt it.. After July 2007 either EB2 or EB3 cases are very less till end of Dec 2008 due to economy crisis. EB2 Cut of date is Apr 15 2007 now, porting numbers before April 15th will effect on dates movement ? I don't think so. After Apr 15 till July end assume that there 7K EB3 Applications, in that all will not go for porting.. We can expect atmost 10 to 20% max.(1500 ). As per my understanding the dates are keep on moving may be a month less or mote from last two VB's. We can expect the same movement in next SEP VB .. Surely it will reach March 2008 this year.
Please feel free to comment on my understanding.. Thanks.
Not sure if this has been addressed before.
Once EB2C backlog is cleared, there are 4125 pending,assuming if the remaining spillover in September 2011 just about clears it....assuming...or if there are less than 1000 remaining after spillover, the monthly quota of 250 should clear all the demand by Q1 2008 right?
What happens next is again unknown weather the dates are made current or if they move the dates to a given future date, either way there should be a flood of applications.....causing retrogression of EB2C, will they continue to treat EB2I and EB2C the same way as far as date movement ?
Last edited by Stemcell; 07-13-2011 at 03:02 PM.
I guess all these calculation are already done, refer to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...FACTS-AND-DATA
You will get more insight. And eb2 vs eb3 i do not believe that its 50-50, most of the people started filing eb2's in late 2007 and after.
A CIR bill that was introduced last month. I don't expect any movement on this until after the re-election but it's worth keeping in mind. It has all the things that we know and expected previously.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:S.1258:
Why do you thing porting of people whose priority date is before april 2007 do not count? there are lot of people who are porting with pd before april '07, as Q suggested there might not be increase from 2011 trend but it definetly affect eb2 atleast certain extent. overall if there are around 5k porting cases, i might play a big role next year.
My assumption : Last time when it dates were current in July/Aug. 2007, 90% of them applied for 485 & got EAD, AP. they will not go for any changes right. Only thing who did not apply for 485 in July/Aug 2007 - EB3 cases, in that hardly 10 to 20% eligible for porting.
I asked similar question
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=4617#post4617
Family guy, you and i seem to be having the same frequency as they say....
But i am more worried about how the two categories are treated once EB2C retrogresses.Because right now both categories are being given spillover according to the backlog to even them out....
Teddy and others,
when compared to last year eb2 row spill over was 12.5, why are we projecting only 8k this year from eb2 row, is there any specific reason?.
EB2C will not retrogress since they can't get spillover to get ahead of india. SO is given strictly in PD order.
One particular reason is that 10 FB spillover to EB category is absent this year.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
As Q answered is the missing FB spillover. In fact this missing FB spillover deprived us of ~ 7K SOFAD, things would have been very interesting this year if had this 7K SOFAD. The preadjudicated numbers would have gone to 0.
Spillover from EB2-ROW last year was not 12.5, however you define it.
Spillover in FY2010 was made up as follows:
EB1 ------ 2,062
EB2-M ---- 2,199
EB2-P ------ 854
EB2-ROW -- 6,597 --- EB2-ROW-M-P -- 9,650
EB5 ------ 8,812
Total --- 20,524
Of this 20,434 was used by EB2-IC.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Why would you assume that those who are on EAD/AP will not port? I would assume that these poeple have been in wait and watch mode and seeing that EB3 I is not getting any spillover now and will not get in the future, they will have decide to start porting. Yes porting is a painfull process but it is better than waiting with no end is sight.
If anything porting will increase rather than decrease. Only question is what will be the % of increase. Some one here stated that a 9k porting count for 2012. I would hazard to guess lower at 6-7k, but this 6-7k increasing for every year.
You seem to have time now (to waste)..in your very first post you said discussing about porting is waste of time
Stemcell,
I agree it will be interesting to see what happens when EB2-C reaches the end of the current backlog and how DOS handle that. That might not happen until at least mid/late FY2012 and isn't likely to be independent of EB2-I.
Remember that EB2-C has 1,718 cases showing as July 2007 alone (which is more than EB2-I) in the June 2011 USCIS Inventory. This would prevent movement beyond July 2007 in Q1 and Q2 FY2012, if the backlog is not entirely eliminated in FY2011.
I don't understand why you feel EB2-C would retrogress. It might stall at July 2007, as PWMB demand comes on stream to be adjudicated, but I don't think it would retrogress (other than a month if PWMB came through quickly).
When spillover visas become available in Q3 or Q4, EB2-C would progress at the same rate as EB2-I, once EB2-I has reached the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C might have moved to.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
Assuming that the dates will not have jerky movement in the next two visa bulletins, EB2C movement will be key in predicting EB2I movement for next year
By October 2011 EB2C pending inventory will be more or less equal to FY2012 allocation and also PWMB+poring numbers for China will be about 1k(until Aug2007) and new demand will be about 2k(Sept-Dec 2007). Whatever be the SOFAD in FY2012 EB2I will get the lion share of it!
Q,
You can add less EB2C demand to you tailwinds for FY2012!
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Veni,
If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of May 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 2.4k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.6k.
If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of June 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 1.9k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.1k.
In both cases, the number of remaining pre-adjudicated cases is enough to use the new allocation in FY2012 until the PWMB cases are ready to adjudicate and the overall total is also more than the initial yearly 7% allocation.
This means that EB2-C would not run out of demand until Spillover Season and wouldn't have moved beyond July 2007 by that point.
Since EB2-I would have an earlier Cut Off Date at that point, EB2-I and EB2-C Cut Off Dates could only move together beyond the backlog, which would happen during Spillover Season (assuming enough spare visas), so no advance warning of how DOS intended to handle it would come from EB2-C.
I calculate new demand for EB2-C for the period August-December 2007 would be around 3.6k max, compared to India's 7.8k.
Last edited by Spectator; 07-14-2011 at 08:46 AM. Reason: Corrected mistake pointed out by familyguy
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
I am in agreement with your EB2C numbers but little confused with 7.8k EB2I calculation for Aug-Dec2007.
Just looking at PERM data for that period EBC:EBI is 1:4, if we take same EB2:EB3 ratio for both I&C then EB2I demand for the same period should be 4 times EBC demand? am I missing sth ?
Last edited by veni001; 07-13-2011 at 10:18 PM.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
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