EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Teddy,
What ever be our porting estimate(2k,4k,6k,8k...etc) for next FY, all of it is not going to be there on First day/First month/Q1 of FY2012. So we need to prorate it at least until next spillover season starts(May/June 2012). Agree, we should wait until September'11 bulletin before crunching numbers for FY2012.

[angryclubs]

Testing avatar

[belmontboy]

Friends,

Just now Leo and Sogaddu brought it to my attn that custom avatars are not allowed. I have made the change (or so do i think) so that now you can use your own avatars.

Please let me know if you face issues.

Thanks
Q

I am Mr N now.
Thanks for fixing

[neospeed]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Thanks for the excellent insight Teddy.

Looking at the June inventory it appears they allocated only 2.6k for this VB.

DOS and CIS might have reserved some extra numbers for the worst case scenario with respect to eb1 and eb2 (row) allocation.

My take on this is depending on the eb1 and eb2 row usage dos might release more numbers in Sept VB.

[suninphx]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

6K porting? hmm...

[sha_kus]

Shouldn't the 6k porting stretch for all of the year...

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[sjkumar]

Congrats Q and others becoming current.
Thanks a lot T,V,S & others for your valuable analysis effort and time.
I really learned so much about this long ... frustrating GC process in this forum.
Keep up your good work.

[krishnav]

Testing avatar

Awesome avatar...that cracks me up!!

[pch053]

Irrespective of what the porting number is (anywhere between 3K - 6K), I think Teddy's analysis provides very good insight on the current scenario. I think the point he is trying to make is there will be more than enough pre-adjudicated cases (some of them might be PWMB cases from this year) for USCIS to approve in the 1st (and maybe 2nd) quarter of 2012 without moving the dates at all. So, the expected big push in PDs might happen after that. I think the different estimates of EB3->EB2 porting will alter the movement of PDs by hardly 1 to 1 and 1/2 months.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
What ever be our porting estimate(2k,4k,6k,8k...etc) for next FY, all of it is not going to be there on First day/First month/Q1 of FY2012. So we need to prorate it at least until next spillover season starts(May/June 2012). Agree, we should wait until September'11 bulletin before crunching numbers for FY2012.

Agree with you Veni on the porting, unfortunately even if 5K of the preadjudicated demand stays the dates wont move at all.

[Monica12]

Testing avatar

That is just too funny!

[ssvp22]

Going by the VB today, i doubt there will be BTM anytime soon. There were numbers and reasons to do a BTM this month, but DoS thought otherwise. Clearly, DoS wants to leave immigrants to dry out in the ugly economy. Whoever falls, they get direct ticket to India. Whoever survives, gets the GC. There is no way out except working 12-14 hours a day and maintaining your status till next summer.

And we should really stop comparing to 2007 since at that time economy was doing great. These are different times and DoS has to serve the citizens first. I dont think DoS by any means wants to help out immigrants, especially if you look at EB3 India folks.

[kd2008]

gc_usa,

As has been discussed many times, the elephant in the corner was always the ever increasing backlog of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications.

Maybe it has woken up.

Given the continuing surge in EB2-ROW PERM approvals and I-140 filings since July 09 (which resulted in ballooning the demand since Oct 10, the new fiscal year, and finally now getting around to consume visa after USCIS processing delays), this is not a surprise. I had previously expressed deep reservations on the rosy scenarios. Still I am happy considering how far things have come. I guess the June visa bulletin movement caught everybody off-guard and raised hopes a bit too much.

Following trackitt, I see unprecedented and gigantic surge in PERM filings in March and April 2011. But its mostly EB2-I. Some of it is sure porting demand. But as others have pointed out, that number is still miniscule.

PS: Oh boy! I am old now I guess. Senior member, eh? Better rein in that bitter tongue of mine lest I come across as curmudgeon.

[leo07]

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

Agree with you Veni on the porting, unfortunately even if 5K of the preadjudicated demand stays the dates wont move at all.

[suninphx]

Irrespective of what the porting number is (anywhere between 3K - 6K), I think Teddy's analysis provides very good insight on the current scenario. I think the point he is trying to make is there will be more than enough pre-adjudicated cases (some of them might be PWMB cases from this year) for USCIS to approve in the 1st (and maybe 2nd) quarter of 2012 without moving the dates at all. So, the expected big push in PDs might happen after that. I think the different estimates of EB3->EB2 porting will alter the movement of PDs by hardly 1 to 1 and 1/2 months.

I think every one gets that. Was wondering if 6K is backed by some hard numbers. We really need to wait till Sep bulletin to see where we land - as Venni said. Plus PWMB , porting are guesstimates and there are more unknowns than before now.

[gcseeker]

Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

[RMS_V13]

Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.

Are you sure? Your disp name is 03 May and assuming its your PD too, why would you be prepared for a May 1st move

[haripathhi]

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...

Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks

[nishant2200]

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true

[leo4ever]

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo

Friends .... check with a good lawyer. I have risen from a business analyst to manager to sr manager to director during GC process. So I would imagine its perfectly possible as long as its a promotion in the same line of work.

[nayekal]

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?

[veni001]

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown, approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

[vipulgupta470]

on a positive note - lets not expect anything from Sep 2011 bulletin like we didnt expect anything from June 2011 bulletin (read between the lines )

[veni001]

Given the continuing surge in EB2-ROW PERM approvals and I-140 filings since July 09 (which resulted in ballooning the demand since Oct 10, the new fiscal year, and finally now getting around to consume visa after USCIS processing delays), this is not a surprise. I had previously expressed deep reservations on the rosy scenarios. Still I am happy considering how far things have come. I guess the June visa bulletin movement caught everybody off-guard and raised hopes a bit too much.

Following trackitt, I see unprecedented and gigantic surge in PERM filings in March and April 2011. But its mostly EB2-I. Some of it is sure porting demand. But as others have pointed out, that number is still miniscule.

PS: Oh boy! I am old now I guess. Senior member, eh? Better rein in that bitter tongue of mine lest I come across as curmudgeon.

kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.

[natvyas]

Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat