EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also count the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

That used to be the case up until 2006.

Time in H4 or L2 no longer counts towards the 6 year limit.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0116-mehta.shtm (Article)
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/...-admission.pdf (USCIS Memo)
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_122006.html (Article)

[kpt112107]

That used to be the case up until 2006.

Time in H4 or L2 no longer counts towards the 6 year limit.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0116-mehta.shtm (Article)
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/...-admission.pdf (USCIS Memo)
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_122006.html (Article)

Does L1 period counts even after moved from L1 to H1?

[Spectator]

Q, Thanks for upadating the information on the first page.

A typo and some comments.

EB3-M at Jul-11 must be a typo. It can't be more than EB3-ROW, which is at Jan-06.

You are optimistic today - August 2007 in the August VB! Do you have insider knowledge you aren't telling us about?

EB3 Silver Lining. Perhaps you should show the date in the table without any spillover.

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW. Maybe the text should reflect the ambiguity of the interpretation and just mention where each would end up if they received the spillover (unlikely as it seems).

[qesehmk]

Oh Spec .... sorry for all the typos. You are my only serious reader it seems!!! Let me fix them ASAP.

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.

Q, Thanks for upadating the information on the first page.

A typo and some comments.

EB3-M at Jul-11 must be a typo. It can't be more than EB3-ROW, which is at Jan-06.

You are optimistic today - August 2007 in the August VB! Do you have insider knowledge you aren't telling us about?

EB3 Silver Lining. Perhaps you should show the date in the table without any spillover.

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW. Maybe the text should reflect the ambiguity of the interpretation.

[Spectator]

Oh Spec .... sorry for all the typos. You are my only serious reader it seems!!! Let me fix them ASAP.

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.

Q,

Believe me, I know how difficult it is updating existing text and tables!

Two pairs of eyes are better than one!

Looking at EB3-ROW progress, I think they will struggle to reach 2006. In the worst case, they probably won't get beyond November 2005 IMO and EB3-M will probably catch them up.

Similarly, EB3-I don't appear to have much prospect of moving beyond May-02.

EB3-C based on recent progress might reach August-04 but I don't have any data on them, so it is trend based. Depending how many visas they have already used, they might slow or stop.

PS No doubt I will now be proved to be an idiot!!

EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year. Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009. I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.

[imdeng]

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW.

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.

[Spectator]

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.

imdeng,

That would be my position as well, although not everybody does agree with that interpretation, so I have to acknowledge that.

I put my reasoning in the FAQ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs Post #16

I agree that the aggregating of 100+ Countries into a single group can make it difficult for people to understand the concept and the application of the law as they think of ROW as if were a Country.

[pg_at_q]

Let me try to answer your question in a couple of ways let me know if I understood correctly.
- Actually on Trackitt people would update their case for RFE and never come back to update that it is resolved. I had done some research on 2004 EB2 data ideally all cases with this PD should have been approved I figured out based on that 15-20% cases people do not update approvals. So in reality these cases are approved but not closed on Trackitt.
- Now coming to old cases in general if we look at the latest inventor cases prior to May 2006 are less than 1000, in reality half of them maybe PD porting, so now hen the dates are moving forward its almost water tight they are in fact approving every case that can possibly be approved.
- Name check and background check is an issue primarily for those who belong to countries of interest. Unfortunately genuinely good people have been held ransom for years; all these countries are part of ROW.
- The trackitt research I did today was pretty high level it assumed a 0 denial rate for 485 it was all cases for Eb2 India current this July V/S all cases current last July. The summary is that the Trackitt representation for those current in Jul 2011 is far less than Jul 2010 so fewer approvals probably 1/3rd might mean the same but because of the general online systems failure we do not see much at all this year.
- In the Trackitt prediction model that I have also in facts and data I have used a starting offset of 2000 which actually accounts for the old cases, these cases go away very slowly so for monthly VB projections we can ignore them.
- As Q has reiterated as well I also believe that realistically only 8K more SOFAD is left, this number is unfortunately not backed by a very sound calculation but it is what SOFAD was projected by calculation minus what has been allocated in approximation.

Teddy, thanks I actually didn't look at Trackitt yet. I've been looking at the pending I-485 inventory list released by USCIS on June 1, 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

As you can see in the list, there is a significant number in 2006 (15,000 +) that have not been granted a visa number, yet DoS went ahead and advanced the date to March 2007. All of us know that USCIS doesn't work strictly on FIFO basis, they've approved applications randomly although within the confines of visa bulletin.

I guess, CO must be thinking what a jerk USCIS is, I better move the dates ahead otherwise these guys because of their random picking/approvals, will waste visas.

That theory above should lead CO to advance the dates much farther then the numerical analysis suggests...just a thought.

Maybe that's why they've stopped releasing demand data because they'll look stupid. The demand data will dictate that there is demand from prior year, but yet DoS advanced the dates (because of inefficiency of USCIS).

[nishant2200]

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.

Perfect. That's my understanding too.

[July2007PD]

quick question from the first page predictions: under EB3 Silver Lining :Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K).

So this means that EB2IC will be completely cleared till Aug 17th 2007 (atleast prediction) ? the reason why i ask this is if i am not wrong all applications which are pre-adjuciated under eb2 until Aug 17 2007 needs to be cleared before any spillover to EB3.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, thanks I actually didn't look at Trackitt yet. I've been looking at the pending I-485 inventory list released by USCIS on June 1, 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

As you can see in the list, there is a significant number in 2006 (15,000 +) that have not been granted a visa number, yet DoS went ahead and advanced the date to March 2007. All of us know that USCIS doesn't work strictly on FIFO basis, they've approved applications randomly although within the confines of visa bulletin.

I guess, CO must be thinking what a jerk USCIS is, I better move the dates ahead otherwise these guys because of their random picking/approvals, will waste visas.

That theory above should lead CO to advance the dates much farther then the numerical analysis suggests...just a thought.

Maybe that's why they've stopped releasing demand data because they'll look stupid. The demand data will dictate that there is demand from prior year, but yet DoS advanced the dates (because of inefficiency of USCIS).

I believe that although the inventory was dated as June 1st it was created much before. Folks on this forum and others were able to find it much before. So looks like even the May bulletin current cases appear on this document. To have a clearer idea we will have to wait for the next inventory or demand data. The approvals for July are now pouring in so we can have high hopes for August; typically 90-95% of those who are current are getting approved in the same month.

[nishant2200]

July bulletin is already in the archive, don't know since when. Seems like they already decided what they are going to put on, just matter of wait and watch. Hopefully monday or tuesday.

[qesehmk]

That is teh correct - it is a decent possibility - the average case scenario is mid july 2007 (teddy spec probably are thinking Jun 2007).

Of course the recently filed 485s (or the PWMBs) won't be cleared by Sep 2011. But the backlog could be cleared.

Another thing to remember is that backlog clearance is one thing .... but the dates could still move ahead and then come back. So date movement especially in sep-oct-nov is not necessarily tied to visa availability.

quick question from the first page predictions: under EB3 Silver Lining :Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K).

So this means that EB2IC will be completely cleared till Aug 17th 2007 (atleast prediction) ? the reason why i ask this is if i am not wrong all applications which are pre-adjuciated under eb2 until Aug 17 2007 needs to be cleared before any spillover to EB3.

[TeddyKoochu]

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.

[TeddyKoochu]

That is teh correct - it is a decent possibility - the average case scenario is mid july 2007 (teddy spec probably are thinking Jun 2007).

My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.

[Spectator]

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.

Q,

I am going to repost this, since it was a later edit in a previous post and may not have been seen.

EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year.

Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009 and the DOS Demand figures are only 500 less in June 2011 than March 2010 [the first available]).

I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.

The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf mentions this (at the very end).

Note that visa availability cut-off dates for oversubscribed areas may not be later than worldwide cut-off dates, if any, for the respective preferences.

Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.

[gchopeful123]

But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.

My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.

[shaumack]

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.. At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

[imdeng]

Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.

But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.

[Spectator]

My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.

Another viewpoint at least.

[angryclubs]

Is trackitt down for everyone?

[TeddyKoochu]

But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.

Creating pipeline is imperative but it is totally upto the agencies when they wan't to create it. Even at the end of FY2011 i.e. Sep bulletin even if they don't do it most likely they will be able to follow all the rules. I believe they must defintely create it by Q2 2012.

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.. At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

Spec's brilliance, hard work, thoroughness and details can be matched only by a few people. I will leave it to him to answer if both he and Sangiano are the same . I also note a good deal of similarity between what they both say maybe the reason is that both of them are mostly correct and match up. I greatly appreciate Spec's work like all of us, Sangiano is considered to be very thorough and knowledgeable on Trackitt so it was a compliment to Spec that his postings are being quoted outside of our blog as well. Thanks to Spec on enriching all of us, he is a unique and rare combination of tireless work, brilliance and thoroughness.

[kd2008]

Looks like trackitt I-485 tracker http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigrat...ackers/i485-eb has crashed. Too many approvals/sms at once?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

Another viewpoint at least.

Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.

[nishant2200]

Is trackitt down for everyone?

yup. crashed.