EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[neospeed]

Below from trackitt:

Finally got the good news. My attorney recieved the welcome/approval notices for me and my wife today in the mail. Here are the details:

PD Dec 1 2006
EB2
TCS
Receipt Date Sept 17, 2007
FP Once in 2007
No RFE
Online Status: Initial Review

I have been reading and getting useful info from this forum. Thanks you all. I will be happy to answer any questions.

[dec2007]

Guys,

might be a very basic question on EB2 - I.

USCIS knows the demand till August 2007. But they have I 140 data after Aug 2007.
So can they use that data to know approximate demand and move dates accordingly.

Thanks,

[tanu_75]

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

One reason : PWMB & Porting

[Spectator]

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

[zenmaster]

does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

In your case.......
Your wife is on H1 and you are using AC21. So there is no question arising of she converting from H1 to H4 ever, because she cannot !
Unless you get current, she will have to stop working after usage of 6 years of H1. Even worse she might have to go out of US between the period of her H1 expiration and 485 application(because H4 is not an option for her - as you are no longer on H1).

Best thing is to change to employer who could file for her PERM seperately... that way she can keep working on H1 until you file 485 for her.
-------------------------

[vishnu]

Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?

[Stemcell]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Q,

Delayed is ok.
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review ), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.

[08OCT2008]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

[pch053]

Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review ), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.

I hope these approvals keep coming. If people are only receiving snail mails, then we will probably see more approvals from next week onwards as it will take at least 3 - 4 days to reach the lawyer. I wonder why there are no emails and updates in online status!

[soggadu]

soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

[srini1976]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

[nishant2200]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

mucho felicitations sir. The most happy part of this is that his PD was 15 FEB 2007. This shows to me they are comfortable with the visa numbers they have in ample quantity so as to give a number to such a late PD as compared to Nov, Dec or Jan. 15th FEB 2007 is quite close to 8th March 2007.

[qesehmk]

I wouldn't call it delay. My observation is that it is approx 8-10th working day of the month. So there is no cause of concern.

Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?

Q,
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.

None. I have good vibes though based on how things have gone so far!

Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.

Teddy I am not so concerned about lack of approvals online .... at least not yet. The numbers are there ... the dates have moved and we MUST see approvals. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing them.

[soggadu]

from trackitt... " Posted by msrini (5) 1 hour 22 minutes ago
Initiated a SR on July 1st and received the physical cards in mail today. No changes in online status so far!!! "

[bieber]

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

Together IC needs atleast 11k to clear backlog, if the available number is less or equal to 11k, they may just want to wait and see for 1/2 qtrs to estimate the supply.

I think there is consensus on this forum that almost entire backlog will be cleared this fy but what happens next is more of policy issue and that's where we just have to wait

[Spectator]

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

[qesehmk]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

[soggadu]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.

i agree...

[pch053]

Another person with ID 'spyindia' reports in trackitt that his I485 has been approved. So, approvals have probably started coming. The user doesn't have a profile, so take a look at Page 3 of the thread:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[08OCT2008]

Thanks !!

It was Texas Service Center

Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

[soggadu]

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

[nishant2200]

I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.

[shreyasai2004]

Gurus,

It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.