EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[victorian]

11K additional people became current by the Jul bulletin so there should have been a large number of approvals daily if demand and supply match if the supply (Numbers are less) we will see far fewer approvals that does not augur well.

I agree with that, but isn't the window of 10 days quite restrictive because there seem to a number of steps involved in approvals from a purely logistical point of view since the system is not completely electronic, which probably preclude immediate approvals of 11K applications, assuming that they all arrived at the USCIS office on July 1st, no?
Also, was this phenomenon of large number of approvals observed prior to the July bulletin?

Edit: Duh, checked the Facts and Data section, and there were relatively large number of approvals in May and June (well, it is not hard to beat 0) as compared to July, and this is definitely a big negative for August.
:Clucthing at Straws: - Long weekend means that both USCIS and Trackitt members not diligently updating their status

[sandeep11]

Sorry this was in reply to victorian's question above. But Teddy and Q have explained it much better.

More approvals means that they have not yet met the demand (including the spillovers for this year), in other words there are still numbers available to be allocated. In this case the numbers calculated by Venni, Spector, Q and their analysis is close to being true.

If the approvals stop abruptly, it means that they ran out of the numbers or are close to running out. In this case the next VB we wouldn't see much movement.

[Spectator]

I agree with that, but isn't the window of 10 days quite restrictive because there seem to a number of steps involved in approvals from a purely logistical point of view since the system is not completely electronic, which probably preclude immediate approvals of 11K applications, assuming that they all arrived at the USCIS office on July 1st, no?
Also, was this phenomenon of large number of approvals observed prior to the July bulletin?

Edit: Duh, checked the Facts and Data section, and there were relatively large number of approvals in May and June (well, it is not hard to beat 0) as compared to July, and this is definitely a big negative for August.
:Clucthing at Straws: - Long weekend means that both USCIS and Trackitt members not diligently updating their status

victorian,

No need to be so hard on yourself!

The other point is that the 11k additional people who became current because of the July bulletin refers to previous pre-adjudicated I-485s already in USCIS possession.

New applications as a result of becoming Current for the first time, as you rightly pointed out, do not have time to be approved this FY.

[neospeed]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

vb site just got updated now with this message:

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)


hoping to get the VB out by this friday

[saky007]

victorian,

No need to be so hard on yourself!

The other point is that the 11k additional people who became current because of the July bulletin refers to previous pre-adjudicated I-485s already in USCIS possession.

New applications as a result of becoming Current for the first time, as you rightly pointed out, do not have time to be approved this FY.

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

[qesehmk]

USCIS had 4 years to preadjudicate. Secondly by their own admission they have preadj'd majority of cases.

I think lets not panic .... just wait and watch. Not having trackitt showup anything is not any cause of worry as yet.

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

[nishant2200]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

vb site just got updated now with this message:

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)


hoping to get the VB out by this friday

dude this is great news. seems like they are officially calling it open season now. And I think by this time they already know what bulletin they are going to release.

Two optional things may occur before friday.
- DOS demand data may or may not be updated
- Mumbai consulate website may or may not be updated tomorrow night

I think this bulletin is very critical and it will surely have notes, unlike last time.

I will always remember these times I shared with all of you guys, you all are almost like my online family.

[neospeed]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

Mine is in June 2007, preadjudicated in Feb 2009. I know becos i attended interview at local uscis office. So i think pretty much all the cases applied during JUly 07 fiasco are preadjudicated

[nishant2200]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-got-fp-notice

this person got a second FP notice postmarked on July 1st, today in mail, no change in his online status This is after he got current. his PD is Jan 2007.

[Spectator]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

saky,

That is a very good question.

The simple answer would be that we can never know for sure.

As Q said, they have had a long time to adjudicate them.

More telling I think is that the USCIS numbers in the Inventory for EB2-IC have always matched the Demand Data figures very well.

Since EB2 has very low CP demand, if there were significant numbers not pre-adjudicated by USCIS, we might expect the DOS figures to be lower than the USCIS figures.

Since we don't see that, we can perhaps conclude that virtually all EB2-IC cases are indeed pre-adjudicated.

[pg_at_q]

USCIS had 4 years to preadjudicate. Secondly by their own admission they have preadj'd majority of cases.

I think lets not panic .... just wait and watch. Not having trackitt showup anything is not any cause of worry as yet.

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....

[veni001]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

saky,

That is a very good question.

The simple answer would be that we can never know for sure.

As Q said, they have had a long time to adjudicate them.

More telling I think is that the USCIS numbers in the Inventory for EB2-IC have always matched the Demand Data figures very well.

Since EB2 has very low CP demand, if there were significant numbers not pre-adjudicated by USCIS, we might expect the DOS figures to be lower than the USCIS figures.

Since we don't see that, we can perhaps conclude that virtually all EB2-IC cases are indeed pre-adjudicated.

In addition, we can see the no. of receipts, pre-adjudicated and pending AOS (include all I-485) applications from USCIS dashboard!

[veni001]

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....

Based on the Facts and Data on hand we are not expecting very many PWMB until 08MAR2007. So I think DOS should have that info already.
As we have been observing, it will take few days before folks update their cases on trackitt or other sources.

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on the Facts and Data on hand we are not expecting very many PWMB until 08MAR2007. So I think DOS should have that info already.
As we have been observing, it will take few days before folks update their cases on trackitt or other sources.

Veni, agree with you on the PWMB, however by now considering that 11K folks are current we should have seen anywhere from 25-50 approvals on Trackitt we don't see any yet. Lets wait till Friday looks like the VB itself will come by then and answer all questions.

[ssvp22]

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....

In my opinion and experience with government kinda babus(US or India), they never decide so late. Whatever happens next VB has been decided since mid of last month.

[nishant2200]

atlperm1 user on trackitt , this guy just updated, he got I-485 approved on July 1st. PD was 7th Nov 2006

[sandeep11]

Hopefully we all get to hear the good news and it jumps over to 2008. Such a relief and peace of mind for so many people. Too Optimistic I know but atleast the thought make me happy.

dude this is great news. seems like they are officially calling it open season now. And I think by this time they already know what bulletin they are going to release.

Two optional things may occur before friday.
- DOS demand data may or may not be updated
- Mumbai consulate website may or may not be updated tomorrow night

I think this bulletin is very critical and it will surely have notes, unlike last time.

I will always remember these times I shared with all of you guys, you all are almost like my online family.

[TeddyKoochu]

atlperm1 user on trackitt , this guy just updated, he got I-485 approved on July 1st. PD was 7th Nov 2006

Finally this is good news, I hope more people update their cases. Hopefully more people will get notifications today evening / tomorrow morning and post.

[veni001]

Veni, agree with you on the PWMB, however by now considering that 11K folks are current we should have seen anywhere from 25-50 approvals on Trackitt we don't see any yet. Lets wait till Friday looks like the VB itself will come by then and answer all questions.

Teddy,
No of approvals reported on trackitt also depend on the volume of cases registered for that period (current Visa Bulletin).
I assume(did not check) the volumes on trackitt for different periods may not be proportional!

[sandeep11]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

[veni001]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

I don't think any EB VISA number(s) wastage in FY 2010!

[nishant2200]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

see
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html

in that, click on link:
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2010

You will see no visas were wasted, in fact we got a few from FB.

[Spectator]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

sandeep,,

I'm not entirely sure what your question means.

The limit for EB was 150,657 visas in FY2010.
DOS used 150,262 visas in EB in FY2010.

So, DOS failed to use 395 or 0.26% of the available visas.

EB3 fell short of the 43,088 allocation by 657 visas or 1.52%

The only group who failed to receive their proper allocation was EB3-ROW, as all other groups in EB3 exceeded the 7% limit.

You can also find the figures for last year here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...CREDIT-to-VENI where they are split up into the various Countries / Groups.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
No of approvals reported on trackitt also depend on the volume of cases registered for that period (current Visa Bulletin).
I assume(did not check) the volumes on trackitt for different periods may not be proportional!

Country of Chargeability - India
Category - EB2
Status - Pending
PD Range Oct 2006 to Feb 2007 to correlate to 15th Oct 2006 to 08 - Mar 2007
The number of cases obtained is 373.
Now this is the 4th business day of the month we do know that mostly the approvals are loaded early in the month but lets give the benefit of doubt and consider it as only 2 business days and assuming 20% people don't update their profiles since its early days. This gives 2/20*80/100*373 = 29.84 ~ 30. I distinctly remember last year in July only 7K folks were current but by the end of the first day itself page 1 on Trackitt which is 50 cases was almost full. One interesting thing is besides EB2-I no other category is also posting approvals. Even in the last 2 months when far fewer people have been current we have seen more approvals in the earlier days. Now when I compare last years counts on Trackitt those current in Jul 2010 were from Feb 2005 to Sep 2005 this gives 734 cases this would mean that there has been a pretty steep fall in those who posted their cases. I also noted that some people just add their cases when they are approved. So I believe that we should reduce the expected approvals on Trackitt to 15 only (50%). Each posted approval will carry more value this year than last year because more people are current and lesser representation.

[Gclongwait]

Hey Guys,

I had a question. Have you heard of any denials for people who filed in July 2007 but who were not current after that? I am kind of new to this and haven't seen any. Assuming they are preadjudicated there must have been 10-15% denials right?

That was my previous question a few pages back. Does everybody who is preadjudicated mean they are approved? If USCIS cannot approve someone without the PD being current can they deny? I am just trying to figure out if

Demand data published = visas that will be used for people who filed in July 07.