EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[ssvp22]

Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?

[neospeed]

Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?

Might be next week before the VB release?

[qesehmk]

Yes. I am quite positive.

Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?

Might be next week before the VB release?

[soggadu]

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.

Dr.S ... your hard work is not going un noticed... i have that page book marked and is the first thing i go thru in the morning... many people i believe are doing the same... but not being vocal about it... keep it going...

[nishant2200]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

You are fine. The salary is to be paid when you get the actual green card in hand. So when you get green card, and your company changes I-9 to match actual status, they need to meet the prevailing wage needs.

The green card is for a future job offer, and that job becomes a bona-fide job when you get the green card.

[nishant2200]

I think aiming at H1b dependent companies (read it as desi consultancies) will target the maximum abuse in h1bs or 140s. I'm actually amazed with the clarity they are targeting.

if genuine cases are in the line, they are really approving at super speed.

H1B dependent applies to a lot of companies, not just consulting. For company with 50 employees or more, if 15% of their employees are H1, then they are called H1b dependent. I think one of the red flag might be the employer employee relationship. for an H1b dependent employer, he has to attest that he did not displace any US worker in similar job profession 90 days around the proposed employment date for the foreign worker, and additionally he has to do recruiting effort and maintain proof of that for providing if asked.

[veni001]

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.

Spec,
We all check it every day.

[bieber]

Spec

I check your update everyday

[Spectator]

Thanks guys for confirming that you do look at the post. That's very gratifying to hear.

When the June approvals appear to all be in (in a week to 10 days), I'll post the histograms for May and June at the bottom of the thread as a separate post. I think they show the picture much better than the figures alone.

[pch053]

Thanks, Spec for all this work. I think one of your observation that some of the cases (~25%) get reported in trackitt after a while will push the current ratio of June:May approvals from 1.53 to the vicinity of the expected ratio of 2.0.

[svbmanian]

My H1-B extension took a week in TSC . it was premium processing :-) around 1st week of may

Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

[iamdeb]

That proves that preadjudicated cases can be assigned visas very quickly and there is absolutely no danger of wasting any visas.



The date movement in forthcoming bulletins is not just a matter of backlog reduction, now it will also be a function of intake of new applications. So the date movement could be as wild as totally being current between now and Novemeber. Or as muted as Jun 2007. Best probability being the dates will move through Aug 2007.

I am planning to update the trackitt predictions thread by tomorrow morning as Jun is coming to an end. So far the indications are that trackitt trend is holding quite well.

I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

[veni001]

I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

iamdeb,
Any movement(forward/backward) in October 2011 depends on where EB2IC cutoff date going to be in September 2011 Visa Bulletin.

As usual, let's hope next Visa Bulletin going to shed some light.

[veni001]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

You are fine. The salary is to be paid when you get the actual green card in hand. So when you get green card, and your company changes I-9 to match actual status, they need to meet the prevailing wage needs.

The green card is for a future job offer, and that job becomes a bona-fide job when you get the green card.

nishant2200,
Irrespective of his/her GC, in 2008 & 2009 waitingEb2 salary(W-2 wages) must be at least the minimum wage promised on LCA filed along with H1B petition by his/her employer!
For USCIS to approve AOS one must prove that he/she maintained continuous legal status while in US.

[venkat]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

According to my friend's attorney regarding predictions on visa number movement, it seems he said it all depends to a great extent on things going on in Charley Oppenheim’s (CO) head rather than something that can be easily analyzed and predicted.

[qesehmk]

The movement in Oct-Nov this year - if any - will be purely to build USCIS pipeline and then retrogress.
Its possible they will make sufficient movement in August or September itself. Or its possible (although very little probability) that USCIS may not even cross Jun 2007 during this FY. If either of these two is true then USCIS will NOT need any movement in OCt-Nov.

We will know whether USCIS will need any movement in next 10 days. If August bulletin shows almost

I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

[suninphx]

The movement in Oct-Nov this year - if any - will be purely to build USCIS pipeline and then retrogress.
Its possible they will make sufficient movement in August or September itself. Or its possible (although very little probability) that USCIS may not even cross Jun 2007 during this FY. If either of these two is true then USCIS will NOT need any movement in OCt-Nov.

We will know whether USCIS will need any movement in next 10 days. If August bulletin shows almost

If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?

[Spectator]

If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?

suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

Yeah agree with you.

PS: By few days i meant for a month ( For a VB bulletin)

[kd2008]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

[veni001]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

kd2008,
Based on the PERM certification data, there are ~100k EBIC PERM since July 2007 and another 100K ROWMP PERM. If we use 70-30 for IC and 60-40 for ROWMP, then there isn't big difference between making EB2IC current Vs making every one current! (140k new filings Vs 300k)

Just for number sake, EB2IC demand ~= EB3IC+EB3ROWMP demand.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

On second thought--

While DOS may have lot of data points compared to 2007 there are still unknowns like how many people are still around who have PD of 2008(and early 2009). For me thats big factor and no one can predict it precisely.

If dates are moved in controlled manner then they have to put their resources to do some tedious calculations each time they make such move. I am sure they will weigh this repeated effort against curent (kinda) set process (of pre-adj cases)..which has proven to be smooth and more predictable.

[qesehmk]

One of the key reasons that 2007 event happened was because DoS didn't have sufficient visibility into USCIS pipeline. Which it seems led DoS to manhandle USCIS by moving dates aggresively. Its quite possible somebody wanted to make it happen (remember this was second last year of an outgoing president. so his admin would be immune from consequences).

This year DoS certainly has visibility to 485. The president is NOT outgoing. So if his admin (DoS chief is part of his admin) makes dates current while country hs 9.2% official unemployment, that won;t be good.

There are very good reasons - economic, moral why the dates should be current. But I do not think now that's going to happen.

If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

There are EB3s too. If its just a matter of intake, they can do it in controlled manner. If its a matter of immigration policy and job continuity and needing the workforce to stay in this country..... then they will and should make everything current. But as I said above the chances of being C are much less.

[bieber]

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[qesehmk]

I agree w you. And remember H1 or GC by definition is meant where they can't find workers!

As per bringing back lost jobs etc .... I think there are conflicting objectives that various constituencies want. And over time government is now controllled by very small special interests which is making it difficult to keep sanity to the policy. A sane policy would be to let dollar devalue and let manufacturing pickup. But that economic policy is not supported by foreign policy objectives ... which dictates the need for a strong dollar.

p.s. - I am not an expert by any mean. Just a few uneducated thoughts really.

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives