EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[03May07]

I have a hunch, contributor's screen name has 8 letters.

I guess, I can guess..thanks for the clue

[nishant2200]

this comes quite close to mine.

Aug - 15 Aug 2007
Sep - 22 June 2008
Oct - 22 June 2008
Nov - 15 June 2007

Now to wait for July 8th. In fact will be browsing mumbai consulate website on the day before evening i.e. july 7th evening. Although I have a feeling it's going to be released first here on July 8th, just like last time. CO is "bossing" his way this time, seems, he has a particular agenda, and wants to go for it. I am not complaining

Back to predictions:

Aug - Aug 1, 2007
Sep - Jul 15, 2008
Oct - Jul 15, 2008
Nov - Oct 8, 2007

[sandeep11]

Well the interpretation by USCIS of their own procedural code is at fault here. Sometimes it leads us to believe that They are delibrately trying to be ignorant.

But I have seen some of my friends with 3 Yrs Bachelor's and 3 yr Masters getting RFE's and infact few them have their 1-2 yr Graduation from US (masters). Looking at some of their cases I was of the opinion that the Job Description that was initially posted led to some confusion with their I-140s. Some of them were posted as BA or Foreign Equivalent Degree plus 'n' yrs of experience or MS or Foreign Equivalent Degree plus 'n-1' yrs of experience.

This I guess kind of misleads USCIS to expect or look for 4 yrs (foriegn equivalent)degree when it comes to Bachelors ( friend with 4 yr engineering BE degree didn't have such RFE's). On the better side, in all these cases a proper evaluation of the Indian degrees stating that they are equivalent to the degrees in US was sufficient.

-Sandy.

Q,

I absolutely agree.

There is no basis in law for such an RFE. The law only requires an advanced degree granted by, or equivalent to one from, an accredited US Institution of Higher Education. There is no mention of the underlying degree.

If the advanced degree was granted by a US University, that should be the end of it.

I think Ron Gotcher is correct. If this trend persists, USCIS will eventually be taken to court over the issue and they will lose. Unfortunately, when challenged, USCIS always relent, so the case never gets that far and the practice can continue.

It appears to be a mean spirited attempt by USCIS to either delay the case or make it as painful, time consuming and expensive as possible for the applicant.

I hope the Ombudsman will mention it in his next report.

My last on the subject of education.

Feel free to move it to the existing thread on the subject http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ons-Discussion

[Osaka001]

Normally for 485 they should not re-evaluate I140 I think otherwise if we apply all the guidelines that Veni (Ron newsletter) has posted more than 50% people are in trouble.
I believe you have an MCA what was the requirement in the labor was it Masters + X years of exp or bachelors + (X+5) years. I believe of it was the bachelors case your are absolutely safe. Typically B.Tech / BE and MCA are equivalent, I have read about some cases wherein the MCA was evaluated equal to MS from USA I don't think those cases can pass by now.

My company applied I-140 for me in Feb'11, the job Req was Masters + 1yr exp, I got my I-140 cleared in a week (Applied in Premium). I have Bsc, MCA (3+3), edu eval states that MCA is equivalent to MS in US. If USCIS is not going with education evaluation, then how it is going to determine 1000 universities, 1000s of diplomas from all over the world. or Are they just focussing Indian diplomas.

[TeddyKoochu]

My company applied I-140 for me in Feb'11, the job Req was Masters + 1yr exp, I got my I-140 cleared in a week (Applied in Premium). I have Bsc, MCA (3+3), edu eval states that MCA is equivalent to MS in US. If USCIS is not going with education evaluation, then how it is going to determine 1000 universities, 1000s of diplomas from all over the world. or Are they just focussing Indian diplomas.

I completely agree with you that educational evaluation should be the basis because this process was designed to equivalence qualifications from the world over to a corresponding US degree. But with the additional scrutiny in place they can go to any extent, it is something like a fault finding mission if and only if nothing is found then only you are good. However if you have 5 years of experience you could have been safer with the bachelors + 5 rule, in India most companies consider BE/BTech similar to MCA, ME or MTech comes after both these degrees as a Masters, however this is open to wide interpretation. Personally I believe that as soon as its Indian + IT + Consulting the red flag gets raised it will be fair to say more than 50% folks on H1 including me fall in this bracket so every time it will be trial by fire be it H1 extn, labor, I140 or I485.

[skpanda]

folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

[qesehmk]

That is true. It seems those processing times are only directional and unlike priority date they DO NOT indicate a cut off.

folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

[haripathhi]

Teddy,

Just out of curiosity, is the I-485 applications for Indian + IT + Consulting apps being scrutinized that closely? I do know that they are scrutinizing for H1, H1 extn, labor, I140 but I am not so sure about that level of scrutiny for I-485 apps too. If that's true then what is the rejection level? Any idea?

I completely agree with you that educational evaluation should be the basis because this process was designed to equivalence qualifications from the world over to a corresponding US degree. But with the additional scrutiny in place they can go to any extent, it is something like a fault finding mission if and only if nothing is found then only you are good. However if you have 5 years of experience you could have been safer with the bachelors + 5 rule, in India most companies consider BE/BTech similar to MCA, ME or MTech comes after both these degrees as a Masters, however this is open to wide interpretation. Personally I believe that as soon as its Indian + IT + Consulting the red flag gets raised it will be fair to say more than 50% folks on H1 including me fall in this bracket so every time it will be trial by fire be it H1 extn, labor, I140 or I485.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Just out of curiosity, is the I-485 applications for Indian + IT + Consulting apps being scrutinized that closely? I do know that they are scrutinizing for H1, H1 extn, labor, I140 but I am not so sure about that level of scrutiny for I-485 apps too. If that's true then what is the rejection level? Any idea?

Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

[gcseeker]

Teddy

I absolutely agree and you have given a very good advice.The process is tightening at various points and if anybody has an PD in late 2007 or early 2008 they probably would be better off waiting untill they get the I-485 +180 days to invoke portability to move rather than jump ship right now and go through the Labour and I-140 process.Rules have changed so much from Labours filed in 2006/2007 to 2011 and they are changing even more with all the memo's.

If scrutiny starts for post 485...people will have to be very careful to make sure the codes match along with job descriptions and titles .

Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

[ssvp22]

Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

485 is Adjustment of Status, which really means you have gone through all the checks and now converting over to a legal immigrant. If you have valid proof of work for your stay in US, tax returns, marriage certificate, birth certificate, and Medical exam, there is not much INS can do about it. If they can find a loophole in the law, the way they are doing with employer-employee relationship for contracting jobs, or proof of LCA posting on client side, it will be hard to block 485 approvals by law.

[qesehmk]

That's mostly right. But don't forget FBI background check and medical tests. That is part of 485 process.

485 is Adjustment of Status, which really means you have gone through all the checks and now converting over to a legal immigrant. If you have valid proof of work for your stay in US, tax returns, marriage certificate, birth certificate, and Medical exam, there is not much INS can do about it. If they can find a loophole in the law, the way they are doing with employer-employee relationship for contracting jobs, or proof of LCA posting on client side, it will be hard to block 485 approvals by law.

[pch053]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

[haripathhi]

Good point Pch! However, I guess that the approvals are snap-and-go for pre-adjudicated apps since most of their requirements are/were already met. If there is any concern then it'll be for the PWMB and post-Aug-2007 fiasco apps.

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

[03May07]

folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

[nishant2200]

Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

I had applied for my second extension for H1. I got my three year extension in 1.5 months from California Service Center.

[waitingEB2]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

[kpt112107]

I had applied for my second extension for H1. I got my three year extension in 1.5 months from California Service Center.

Going to apply this week in premium. I will update back soon in a week.

[kpt112107]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

[TeddyKoochu]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

You are correct, thanks for bringing on track. My prediction is Aug - 01-JUN-2007, Sep - 15-AUG-2007. Good luck to all.

[qesehmk]

That proves that preadjudicated cases can be assigned visas very quickly and there is absolutely no danger of wasting any visas.

approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month.

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

The date movement in forthcoming bulletins is not just a matter of backlog reduction, now it will also be a function of intake of new applications. So the date movement could be as wild as totally being current between now and Novemeber. Or as muted as Jun 2007. Best probability being the dates will move through Aug 2007.

I am planning to update the trackitt predictions thread by tomorrow morning as Jun is coming to an end. So far the indications are that trackitt trend is holding quite well.

[veni001]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

pch053,
Did you check the volume of the cases reported for the 7 and 1/2 weeks Vs 15 weeks?
Approval % based on the volumes reported may give better picture.

[bieber]

I think aiming at H1b dependent companies (read it as desi consultancies) will target the maximum abuse in h1bs or 140s. I'm actually amazed with the clarity they are targeting.

if genuine cases are in the line, they are really approving at super speed.

[veni001]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

waitingEB2,
What ever be the reason(s), your pay should be at least the wage promised on LCA filed along with your H1B until you receive you GC.
From the day of your GC approval your salary should be at least the prevailing wage promised on PERM labor.

[Spectator]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.