You are right. I have mentioned that in my posts in last few weeks. At the bottom side we will see dates around May-Jun 2007. At top side. the dates could move well beyond Aug 2007 and tehn of course the extra SOFAD will be given to EB3.
Originally Posted by gcq
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
This is just for FYI: I had send an email to NSC a while back to check whether my I485 application has been pre-adjudicated or not. Today, I got the following reply below. My PD is July'07 and I am not current yet. Plus, I know I have incomplete medical records for which I expect to get a RFE at some point of time. I am not sure what the reply exactly means but it seems that irrespective of whether a case has been pre-adjudicated or not, an officer will probably review it once before approval.
-----------------------------------------Reply from NSC-----------------------------------------
Good afternoon,
USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.
It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.
Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0050
This proves to me that they do have an official pre-adjudication process, since they officially and openly use this terminology. Which further gives hope that to facilitate this process, they would like to take applications in advance.
Any information is good to know and helps to make this all clearer. Thanks a lot friend for posting.
Gclongwait,
Agree, artificial slowdown is really speculation. We have seen some new policy memos/review guidelines from USCIS regarding on EB1/2 i140 criteria since last year, which I believe is the main reason for the delay with all new EB1&EB2(all countries) i140/485 processing.
"When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current."
Can someone confirm this? Does this mean that once USCIS exhausts its current Inventory, it will open the gates for everyone to apply for the I-485?
While nobody can confirm this is going to happen, there is a strong possibility this may happen. The following link is enlightening.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf
"By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates."
Last edited by gcq; 06-23-2011 at 05:28 PM.
my reservations...
a. This document is undated.
b. DOS has done that before, moving dates to current and had to face ire from all quarters. Sadly, from the ones who benefited from that dates-movement as well.
c. IMO, this document, applies to all but retrogressed countries. I'm sure there would be a corresponding internal memo addressed to concerned folks on the job, to apply the document as such.
Thanks for sharing the information.
gcq,
This is the example given in that document
"For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”."
First, if the demand is less the available VISA numbers then the category can be "C", so it is not a requirement.
Second, based on June inventory data USCIS need minimum SOFAD of 11.3k+porting(if any) VISAs available in the next two months to conclude that the supply is more then EB2IC (and EB2ROW) demand.
The key for SOFAD in the next two months will be based on how many of the ~20k pending EB1&EB2ROW are documentarily qualified!
As we know once FY hit OCTOBER, DOS/USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limitations.
Bottom line is, (we believe) PD movement in the next two VB will be based on the policy than the numbers(demand)!
Last edited by veni001; 06-23-2011 at 06:19 PM.
This statement is true. And that is the reason they will move dates far enough before they exhaust current backlog. The question is how far are they going to make it.
Now that is where policy & discretion comes into the picture. If their preference is to take in all then they will let the backlog vanish and then make it current in Oct-Nov. If they only want reasonably controlled movement they can move as little as 3 months ahead and still generate enough demand to take care through May 2012.
The reality could be somewhere in between. Most likely 1 yr movement so that tehy have enough to process throughout 2012 and be ready to use all SOFAD in 2012.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Based on lots of reading looks like VB might be for Aug'11 is moved by 3-4 months, so it will reach Jun/Jul 07.
Scenario 1: If they want to build the pipeline they might move dates for an year? they it might be moved to Apr'08 in Sep bulletin. But this will add several new cases, porting, high volume 07 and 08, will this does not cause any retro later.
And also if they move dates to say Apr'08 then this demand will be enough since most are predicting that spillover might be less next year..as..EB2 has high pending cases, labor gets approved quick these days, etc...so i think in this case it might take 2013 just to reach mid/3Q of 2008?
Scenario 2: If they move dates to say Jun 07 in Aug VB and say since they have 10K+ cases already and want to move little to gather another 20K-30K they might just move it to end of 2007. But in this case i think next year same time they will move dates to end of 2008 or beginning of 2009.
Does it make sense?
I think cis definitely needs to move the dates to create some demand. Here are the reasons:
1) I believe most of the backlog is due to the i-140 approval delay where eb2 ROW-M-P/eb1 got stuck
2) Since most of the backlog countries (EB2I/C) have already cleared the I-40 stage and they just need to process only I-485 stage which usually takes at least 6 to 8 months.
3) the next spillover season starts around May/June/July/aug/sep 2012 , which is 8 months from August.
4) they need to start intake either in Aug/sep vb only and they cannot start once the next fiscal year starts (oct 2011),becos of the limitation with the number of monthly available visas in the first two quarters that doesn't give proper justification for cis to move the dates.
From the above factors it is evident that, they will certainly move the dates at least to the end of the 2007.
If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at least April 2008. Based on the predictions of relatively low SOFAD for the next year, probably advancing the dates to Dec'07 will generate enough applications in the queue. However, moving it to April'08 will ensure that there is absolutely no possibility of wasting spillover visas. But, as Teddy and Q pointed out, we haven't faced this situation before and this is somewhat of an unknown territory as far as prediction of PDs is concerned.
All the analysis is really exciting resulting in 100 pageviews/day from me alone. Can we also have a counter on top of the forum showing the days, hours, minutes and seconds to the next bulletin
My PD 12/05/2007.Is there a chance that I will be current by this FY?
Hey pch053, did you open a SR before sending an e-mail? I had sent a similar e-mail to TSC, but got a reply within a couple of days telling me that I needed to open a SR before asking about the status of my application.
sunny4gc, I had asked similar question on this forum (PD Aug 2009) and based on the answers I received and what I read on the forum, I think you have a good chance considering there is possibility the PD may move to 2008. Now only reason why your PD could not be current is if the movement is not made beyond July 2007 which although a possibility, seems less likely (based on what I have read).
I noticed and understood that it is extremely difficult for the gurus to keep responding to individual chances (although they were generous enough to respond back to mine, some other members were later requested to read the forum and evaluate).
Frankly I dont understand all the calculations (trying though) and this 'analysis' is strictly based on what the gurus have posted here.
Thanks Self.coach for the response.Iam hoping that I would be current by september bulletin
I have a Question. Reading from other threads i find that people are frustrated that because of 2007 fiasco things have slowed down.. if it is true... would the cutoff date have been different or i would say some thing in 2008 at this time instead of Mar 2007?
No, I didn't open any SR; I just send an email requesting my status update.
That's completely untrue. Because of 2007 fiasco a lot of good things happened.
1. EB2/EB3 got to file 485 which allowed them to avail of EAD and APs and AC21. For EB3IC w a PD of 2006 and above this is a practical green card since their cases will not be touched for next 5-10 years and they can have an EAD and so keep working and keep changing jobs.
2. USCIS seemed to get their act together and started preadjudicating and sharing tons of data (w DoS and w applicants)
3. Improved perception of government agencies in the minds of applicants who had a negative image of USCIS and DoS.
There may be others too ... but the problem is neither DoS nor USCIS. The problem is with the extremely limited quota of EB. That needs to be addressed.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Could you please tell us the id to which you mailed?
I am summarizing the discussion so far. Based on the spillover estimates, the range of PDs that will be cleared this year ranges from May'07 (pessimistic) to Aug '07 w/some spillover to EB3-ROW (optimistic). The reality might be somewhere in between and may be something around June - July'07. Now, USCIS will need to fill in their queue for having enough applications for the next spillover season in 2012. At this point, it is very difficult to estimate what the ballpark of spillovers will be in 2012. More importantly, there hasn't been any previous instance of USCIS advancing the dates to create a buffer of applications that can be approved when the PDs become current. So, this is an unique situation in some sense with no earlier precedence and thus all the PD movement after July'07 is a mere speculation. If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at April 2008 but nobody really knows what to expect. So, everybody is holding their breath for Aug and Sep bulletin. For PDs to go past July'07 in the Sep bulletin, we need at least 3 - 4 month movement (i.e. up to June'07 - July'07) in the Aug bulletin itself.
ncscfollowup.nsc@dhs.gov
Very well summarized.
Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.
My take:
1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.
2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.
3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.
4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).
-Sandy
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