EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[lagan2006]

Thank you Veni and ifaith. Sounds like I need to wait for another 6 monts to get my GC in hand. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[nijor.deha]

hI Gurus,

tHANKS FOR REPLY.If someone can simplify the explanation with regard to na_dev question it will be helpful.
Few simple question

1.How many approved i-140 applicant from Aug-2007 to July 2008 ?Just rough estimate

2.If same spillover takes place how long will it take to clear the case till July 2008?

3.If date become current in sept 2011,what is the chance of getting retrogade back to 2007?Can it even retrogade beyond 2007?

na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.

[mpurna77]

This is what my lawyer says

"Generally, if a case (I485) is approved before the priority date becomes current, the approval is invalid. Can cause issues in citizenship "

How much is this statement has validity in general sense? any issues anyone faced?

I do see some approvals from 2007 EB2I. which is not current now.

[na_dev]

na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.

Thanks Vishnu.

I included Certfied and Certified- Expired for FY 2008 and came up with number 16569 Perm Cases for Fy-2008 for India. But I have a question, why we are including Certfied -Expired Perm cases ?

For example , I changed my job and my last perm filed by my then employer was approved but, never used , it must have expired by now (of course it took 20 months to come.. i moved on...)

[bieber]

nijor.deha

if same spill over will come next year, Aug2008 will be cleared

[bieber]

Veni

thanks for response, still need to discuss but may be this is not the right time

what is the difference between certified and certified-expired?

[vishnu]

by default, the system moves it to certified-expired in 6 months time whether or not the i-140 was filed. but yes, you are right, there will be a percentage that never used the perm. which is why it makes sense to apply a haircut on the 16,569 cases (perhaps 10%-20%), before then breaking it down between eb2:eb3 and finally multiplying by 2 to arrive at estimate for 485.

[lagan2006]

Q you will definitely be current next month. Frankly movement till 8th March is beyond all expectations.



Congratulations finally your green hour is approaching.



Thanks for your kind words. Just sit back and relax, I sincerely hope you are greened by Sep 2011.



Many thanks and congratulations I believe you should surely get your GC by Sep 2011, 3 months is sufficient time to process.

Thanks Teddy and Veni.

Teddy, I was happy when I saw your comments but at same time I saw Veni's comment about "Documentarily Qualified" requirement. It sounds like I may or may not get GC by Sept 11.

[kd2008]

Hi All,

I have been going through this forum for sometime and after seeing July bulletin could not resist myself.

I have a question on Perm Data that is posted in Facts and Data section. I may be wrong. Here is what I did:

1. I downloaded FY2008 perm data from FLCDataCenter.
2. Exported to excel and did a filter on column Country of Citizenship-India. I got 18837 cases. Out of that I again filtered on column Case Status for Certified only( there are other values like Certified-expired, denied and Withdrawn).
3. I Got a Number 7197 as Certified PERM cases for FY 2008 for INDIA.

4. The Fact and Data section in this forum says for FY-2008 total Perm Cases for India are 16,567.

Not sure if FLCdatcenter has correct number of Perms... WIll anyone clarify ?

Thanks!

FLCdata for 2008 shows PERM applications approved in 2008. They may have been filed in 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008. Most PERM applications filed in 2008 were approved in 2009 and 2010. The file number on that data gives the date application was filed - the middle five digits in Julian format. Also one needs to include certified-expired. It simply means the case was approved six months before the data was published. Thats all that it means. Do not exclude them

Gurus on this forum have done extensive research in deciphering that data. That's why their predictions are so rational and close. But more scrutiny is always welcome.


One request to newbies in general --- please please read facts and data first. If you want to compute things yourself first ask how the gurus did it and why and then do your calculations and ask questions.

Please focus on overall predictions and not on when MY MY MY PD is going to be current. Thats why this forum is different. Because it focuses on the collective and is very cordial.

[bieber]

by default, the system moves it to certified-expired in 6 months time whether or not the i-140 was filed. but yes, you are right, there will be a percentage that never used the perm. which is why it makes sense to apply a haircut on the 16,569 cases (perhaps 10%-20%), before then breaking it down between eb2:eb3 and finally multiplying by 2 to arrive at estimate for 485.

if that is the case ,if we are looking at fy2008 data then all cases must appear under certified+expired

[Vishwanathkvs]

Hello Gurus,
My PD is April 23 2008 and would like to know if i stand any chance this year....i want to avoid getting my H1 visa stamped when i got to India in december... at-least get EAD/AP, do you all think it is realistic...

[priyesh]

Hello All,

Could someone please let me know when can I expect to file 485 as per the calculation discussed on this forum ? My PD is April 10, 2008. Min and Max wait time ? Really appreciate your input.

[ragx08]

Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!

[vishnu]

that is a fair question - but i think the data is as of end fy 2008 (although the file may have been uploaded much later).

[qesehmk]

Even Gods love praise. We are mere mortals!! That is the best praise I have heard. So thank you

Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!

[ragx08]

EB-2I 07/2008, I140 approved. Employer moved operations (> 35mi). Current work location may or may not be operational after a year..... Decided to move to the new location next month. Filing new PERM & I140 from new location - retaining the old PD. Now, before the new PERM is approved if my PD becomes current (remote chances though - but would like to know what I might run into), the company lawyer says I can still apply for I485 with a letter of intent from the employer and me saying the I intend to move back to the current location on greened!
1. Is that possible?
2. If it is and it happens, would it have any impact on AC21 in future - if need arises?
3. What happens if at the time of approval the current location is not operational?

[qesehmk]

1. Possible.
2. If AC21 eligible, no impact.
3. Don't know. You need a lawyer.

Additionally why not stay in place and wait for 485 to be filed. Meanwhile the second PERM at the new location can be applied.

EB-2I 07/2008, I140 approved. Employer moved operations (> 35mi). Current work location may or may not be operational after a year..... Decided to move to the new location next month. Filing new PERM & I140 from new location - retaining the old PD. Now, before the new PERM is approved if my PD becomes current (remote chances though - but would like to know what I might run into), the company lawyer says I can still apply for I485 with a letter of intent from the employer and me saying the I intend to move back to the current location on greened!
1. Is that possible?
2. If it is and it happens, would it have any impact on AC21 in future - if need arises?
3. What happens if at the time of approval the current location is not operational?

[ragx08]

Q,
Thanks for the response. I'm not hoping my PD to become current soon - but if for some reason the PERM gets delayed, I could end up in that situation.

[bieber]

no offense to any one, but the beauty of this forum is helping people understand the procedure and decide themselves.
I feel if someone asks 'this is my PD, when do i get gc',they are ignoring a chance to learn

[bieber]

Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!

on a lighter note, why would you not consider working for them?

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

It says there is no data available.

Whats going on?

[grnwtg]

if that is the case ,if we are looking at fy2008 data then all cases must appear under certified+expired

Probably not all of them as some of them priority date would be in 2007, correct me if I am wrong. So as kd2008 explained, we also need to go by file number which includes date of aplication filed. As mentioned by many this data is already explored but not wrong to do it again by a fresh mind for better calculations or to become a guru and replace some of the wonderful people here

[soggadu]

this guy predicts it to be current for whole EB2 or 1 qtr of 2008 by sep 2011... what do you guys think....


http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-category.html

[Spectator]

that is a fair question - but i think the data is as of end fy 2008 (although the file may have been uploaded much later).

As vishnu said, at the time the FY2008 data was published, the last 6 months certifications had not expired.

We have discussed this topic several times in the 100 odd pages and many people have confirmed that, although their case shows as Certified-Expired, they did in fact submit an I-140 within 180 days.

There is not going to be any communication channels between USCIS and DOL to say if an I-140 was ever submitted, so the cases automatically become Certified-Expired after 180 days. In fact, it is a meaningless distinction, which did not exist until FY2008.

Regarding PERMs that are Certified without an I-140 being submitted within 180 days, that will be a vanishingly small number, representing the exception rather than the rule. PERM is expensive and time consuming - it is not entered into lightly, especially after Labor Substitution was stopped.

[bieber]

Probably not all of them as some of them priority date would be in 2007, correct me if I am wrong. So as kd2008 explained, we also need to go by file number which includes date of aplication filed. As mentioned by many this data is already explored but not wrong to do it again by a fresh mind for better calculations or to become a guru and replace some of the wonderful people here

I separately created file for only 2008 (based on the file name julian logic) and it has both certified and certified+expired, I excluded everything before 1st jan 2008. I don't have it right now but will post later

as far as I remember, we collectively agreed to include both to be on safer side for calculations