EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[gccool]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!

ifaith,
Three things need to happen
First, your i485 must be documentarily qualified (processing should be complete, FP, Background check...etc, usually 4 months)
Second, your PD should be current
Third, VISA number is available to assign

So, even if there are more VISA# available, if your applications is not documentarily qualified then USCIS can not assign a VISA number.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.

Q you will definitely be current next month. Frankly movement till 8th March is beyond all expectations.

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today (my PD 02/20/2007)

Congratulations finally your green hour is approaching.

Thanks Q, Teddy and others for the exhaustive work you guys have done over the last several months. I have been following this thread since its inception on IV. At IV, I had seen the threads created by individual needing help or providing some information. Nothing bad in that. Q's thread was the first successful attempt in creating a thread, "owning" the content and collaborating with others for shedding the light on the process that lot of us were clueless about. This is indeed a commendable effort. VDLrao was the first person who started the process and Q and others took it to the next level. Kudos !

Now the business: What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.

- Carrey

Thanks for your kind words. Just sit back and relax, I sincerely hope you are greened by Sep 2011.

Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.

Many thanks and congratulations I believe you should surely get your GC by Sep 2011, 3 months is sufficient time to process.

[veni001]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!

gccool,
Which is true only if that application is documentarily qualified when PD is current.

[mpurna77]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today (my PD 02/20/2007)

I just see a case with PD 02/20/2007 approved in TSC in trackitt isn't it you:-)

[Spectator]

Simple answer is yes.

A more complex answer would be a question - Does "Documentarily Qualified = Preadj" ?? If not, intuitively "Preadj > Documentarily Qualified", is that right?

Spec what's your take on these questions?

Q,

I think that is an interesting question. Here is my take on it.

The Demand Data can only show a number if a visa has been requested.

For AOS, that can only happen when the FBI fingerprint check, the IBIS check and the Name check have been completed (there are provisions if the namecheck has been pending >150 days, but I don't think they would apply if a visa is not immediately available).

The reality is that the visa is not requested until the case has been pre-adjudicated.

A more interesting question to me, is at what point CP cases appear in the Demand Data.

I think it is very late in the process. According to this list of steps, it only occurs at step 5, which is just before the interview is scheduled.

1. The USCIS (formerly known as the INS) forwards the approved immigrant petition (the I-797 Notice of Action) to the National Visa Center (NVC) if the alien has indicated his desire to apply for consular processing in an immigration petition. Otherwise, he has to file Form I-824 to request consular processing;
   
2. The NVC sends Packet 3 to the alien when an immigrant visa number becomes available;
   
3. The alien and his family complete Packet 3 and return it to the NVC;
   
4. The NVC processes Packet 3;
   
5. The NVC notifies the State Department Visa Office of the completed Packet 3 processing and requests allocation of visa numbers for the alien and his family; and
   
6. The NVC schedules an immigrant visa processing appointment to be attended by the alien and his family at the nearest U.S. consulate that issues immigrant visas.

http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html

That means most of the CP cases do not appear as part of the Demand Data.

[Spectator]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!

A visa will be issued at the time the application is finally adjudicated IF the PD is still Current at that time.

Many people in July 2007 were Current, but the Cut Off Dates retrogressed to a date equal to or earlier than their PD by the time their case was adjudicated.

[grnwtg]

Looks Like many Guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, Veni, Teddy, Spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess There are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
And Q, I think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

[qesehmk]

Spec I was looking at DHS data rather than DoS. That is where the numbers I quoted came from. If DoS data is the final word, (which makes more sense) then you are right.

Q,

Not sure why you think that. Comments inline.

On this one ... I have always thought about "Documentarily Qualified" weaker than preadj. i.e. many people can be qualified but a subset will be preadjudicated. But it seems its the other way round.

Q,

The Demand Data can only show a number if a visa has been requested.

On a different topic ... I think I found why quarterly spillover doesn't happen although we think AC21 specifically asked for it. Here is what AC21 asked for.

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

Note it says "OVERALL" demand. Not demand for non-retrogressed countries. That's the problem. So yes .... the non-retrogressed countries might show less demand than supply, but the AC21 doesn't allow spillover unless OVERALL demand is less than supply. In other words AC21 would be useful only when countries may be slightly retrogressed rather than severely retrogressed.

[PD1006]

With the dates moving forward rapidly, how do we know a case has been pre-adjudicated?

[qesehmk]

Rest 100% assured this website will go on. And i will continue to contribute.

looks like many guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, veni, teddy, spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess there are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
and q, i think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

[bieber]

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

[qesehmk]

Bieber pls note I said MAX 3 years. I completely agree he may get a chance to file as soon as Sep 2011. And could actually get it by Sep 2012. The reason I am hesitant to go into details is because my suspicion is that this year EB2IC is being favored for backlog reduction which means next year we will see all those EB1 and EB2 ROW come back roaring. But we will know better when Oct 2011 inventory is published.

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

[neospeed]

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

The movement will only occur during last quater. And you need consider PWMB and also porting cases when the next dates move

[bieber]

Q,

I will wait until you get a chance to analyze, if you, veni, teddy, spec would like to participate we should probably open a separate thread for that discussion

The movement will only occur during last quater. And you need consider PWMB and also porting cases when the next dates move

I did consider everything you just mentioned

[GCDespo]

Gurus and Pandits,

lets say if the dates move to JUL /AUG 2011 by september. Will USCIS will keep in mind of PWMDS while moving the dates there afterI,e they may have around 300 visas per month to allocate will they keep allocationg them to PWMDs and upgrades through out next year?

Also if the date retrogresses how far it will retrogress . Mine is in May 2007 . So I am wondering if I can get greened within next year before next spillover season starts.


Human mind is so greedy.Earlier I was hopeful that my date will get current and if I would get a chance to file 485 and now that the chances of gettign current are improved, I am hoping to get greencard

[manipur]

In new scenario where we are already in march 07. How the projection looks like. Is there more than 50% chance of dates going beyond July 07

[mpurna77]

With the dates moving forward rapidly, how do we know a case has been pre-adjudicated?

Take Infopass or ask your lawyer or send mail to NCSCFollowup.Nsc@dhs.gov regarding asking about status of your case.

Some people got reply in 3-5 days. As it mentioned under thread 'How to find case got Pre-adjudicated!!!'.

[veni001]

That is key, in the event if you are not able to file if USCIS open a short window to buffer b'se you may not have your new labor approved for that opportunity. But there are 30k EBI&C PERM certifications (~70%EB2)between 2007(incl PWMB) and June 2008 in addition to any porting numbers( may not be very high).

All in all this could generate about 40-45k new EB2I&C demand. Assuming current SOFAD levels will continue for few more years,could take two years to clear that inventory before you get a chance to file your i485 with new i140 and June 2008 PD, if you add processing time and possible FYend/new FY it could be 2-3 years from now.

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

biber,
I clarified in the above post that it could be 2-3 years! 2years if he can apply by Sept 2011, 3-yrs If he miss the boat assuming that USCIS will open gate before end of FY2011 for his/her PD.

[veni001]

Gurus and Pandits,

lets say if the dates move to JUL /AUG 2011 by september. Will USCIS will keep in mind of PWMDS while moving the dates there afterI,e they may have around 300 visas per month to allocate will they keep allocationg them to PWMDs and upgrades through out next year?

Also if the date retrogresses how far it will retrogress . Mine is in May 2007 . So I am wondering if I can get greened within next year before next spillover season starts.


Human mind is so greedy.Earlier I was hopeful that my date will get current and if I would get a chance to file 485 and now that the chances of gettign current are improved, I am hoping to get greencard

GCDespo,
Actually USCIS issued all FY2011 quota for EB2 IND in the first two quarters itself(460 per month), so yes they will continue to issues VISAs for the documentarily qualified/adjudicated applications whose PD is current event if dates retrogress in Oct 2011.

[gccool]

Veni,
Thanks for the clarification.

gccool,
Which is true only if that application is documentarily qualified when PD is current.

[veni001]

Looks Like many Guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, Veni, Teddy, Spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess There are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
And Q, I think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

grnwtg,
Don't worry, we are not going anywhere. But we definitely encourage young-gurus to take the lead.

[grnwtg]

Thank God they release visa bulletin Thursday evening, if it would have been monday, whole week would have gone for discussions. For people beyond July it all depends on fine number of Spill over and uscis thought on whether to accept new applications and if so how many.
My priority is Mar'08 i am very much optimistic in getting EAD in a year, if things go right i might get chance for EAD in sep'11.

Let us hope USCIS to accept new application for 485 atleast till 2008 or make it current.

Thanks to all Guru's for wonderful data you have provided

[gccool]

Spectator,
Thank you for a very clear explanation.

A visa will be issued at the time the application is finally adjudicated IF the PD is still Current at that time.

Many people in July 2007 were Current, but the Cut Off Dates retrogressed to a date equal to or earlier than their PD by the time their case was adjudicated.

[na_dev]

Hi All,

I have been going through this forum for sometime and after seeing July bulletin could not resist myself.

I have a question on Perm Data that is posted in Facts and Data section. I may be wrong. Here is what I did:

1. I downloaded FY2008 perm data from FLCDataCenter.
2. Exported to excel and did a filter on column Country of Citizenship-India. I got 18837 cases. Out of that I again filtered on column Case Status for Certified only( there are other values like Certified-expired, denied and Withdrawn).
3. I Got a Number 7197 as Certified PERM cases for FY 2008 for INDIA.

4. The Fact and Data section in this forum says for FY-2008 total Perm Cases for India are 16,567.

Not sure if FLCdatcenter has correct number of Perms... WIll anyone clarify ?

Thanks!

[vishnu]

na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.