EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

You got it PCH!

Thanks all for the suggestions! I know that his medical details are incomplete, so I will assume that it will generate a RFE while I485 adjudication. Is 30 days the standard time to reply to a RFE on pending I485 apps?

Sure. Will do.

Q...this is very good information which lot of people have questions on....please open a separate thread for this info rather than letting it bury in this thread...

Rule of thumb is 5 years.

Guys,

Can someone tell me when can EB2 with PD 02/2011 expect GC? My PERM was filed in Oct 2008 which was denied after more than 2 years. Then my employer filed new PERM in Feb. 2011 which is approved now. So next stage is I-140. In your opinion, when will my PD become current?

Jun 2008 should get GC in 3 years max from now. I would suggest weigh carefully current slavery for 3 years vs next job slavery for 6 yrs and then make a decision. I wish you could use AC21. But unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case

Hi gurus, I am new to this forum. My PD is June, 2008. I have a job offer at hand and company can hire me in 1 month from now and are willing to file my PERM in 4 to 5 months time frame. With priority dates moving so fast, I am confused. Company is big and position is full-time.

Please share your thoughts or advice. I am thinking I may miss my chance of EAD even if PD moves very fast and goes back in October bulletin. But GC will not come anytime before Sep/Oct of 2012. Please comment.

[sunsrk]

"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?

You got it PCH!]



Jun 2008 should get GC in 3 years max from now. I would suggest weigh carefully current slavery for 3 years vs next job slavery for 6 yrs and then make a decision. I wish you could use AC21. But unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case

[veni001]

Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.

lagan2006,
Considering the processing time Sept 2011 is kind of tough but definitely before Christmas.

Even if we see jerky movement in the visa bulletins between August 2011 and October 2011 with EB2I&C PD, the chances of retrogressing into 2006 is minimal or none.

[veni001]

"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?

Not because of changing jobs but based on EB2I&C pipeline and also based on the assumption of SOFAD will continue at the current level for future years. Lot of variables that could change between now and your PD become current. So it could be shorter or longer.

[sunsrk]

Veni, Sorry I still didn't understand. If new company does PERM certification and I-140 captures my old PD, time to get GC should not change whether I am with current job or with new job, right? I may miss chance for EAD if my PD becomes current temporarily for 1 month (to build pipeline for future spill over), but GC time shouldn't change right?

Not because of changing jobs but based on EB2I&C pipeline and also based on the assumption of SOFAD will continue at the current level for future years. Lot of variables that could change between now and your PD become current. So it could be shorter or longer.

[veni001]

Veni, Sorry I still didn't understand. If new company does PERM certification and I-140 captures my old PD, time to get GC should not change whether I am with current job or with new job, right? I may miss chance for EAD if my PD becomes current temporarily for 1 month (to build pipeline for future spill over), but GC time shouldn't change right?

That is key, in the event if you are not able to file if USCIS open a short window to buffer b'se you may not have your new labor approved for that opportunity. But there are 30k EBI&C PERM certifications (~70%EB2)between 2007(incl PWMB) and June 2008 in addition to any porting numbers( may not be very high).

All in all this could generate about 40-45k new EB2I&C demand. Assuming current SOFAD levels will continue for few more years,could take two years to clear that inventory before you get a chance to file your i485 with new i140 and June 2008 PD, if you add processing time and possible FYend/new FY it could be 2-3 years from now.

[qesehmk]

3 Yrs if your PD is retained. 6 if PD is not retained. Does that make sense? Frankly speaking i have a lot of faith in 3 year scenario just because with long horizons the number of unknowns increases.

"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?

[sunsrk]

Thanks Q. Why PD will not be retained? I have an EB2 approved I-140 with my current employer. So once my PERM is approved, during I-140 with new employer I should retain my PD (it is not even porting, from EB2 to EB2 only).

3 Yrs if your PD is retained. 6 if PD is not retained. Does that make sense? Frankly speaking i have a lot of faith in 3 year scenario just because with long horizons the number of unknowns increases.

[qesehmk]

Sorry I assumed you do not have approved 140. I think there is no way you will get GC even if are able to file 485 now. So you might as well improve career and then get in the line with old PD. Thus career is improved (hopefully) and teh cycle time to GC is the same! Makes sense?

Thanks Q. Why PD will not be retained? I have an EB2 approved I-140 with my current employer. So once my PERM is approved, during I-140 with new employer I should retain my PD (it is not even porting, from EB2 to EB2 only).

[sunsrk]

Thanks Q. That is what I am also thinking. Offer is from a stable company. I was only worried about PERM/I-140 denials? Do you know those % denials? I don't want to think negative cases. New offer (pay and benefits are good), I will anyways get 3 year extension and by then PERM or I-140 should get cleared even if there is any audit (by bad luck). Appreciate your time in helping me here.

Sorry I assumed you do not have approved 140. I think there is no way you will get GC even if are able to file 485 now. So you might as well improve career and then get in the line with old PD. Thus career is improved (hopefully) and teh cycle time to GC is the same! Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

The ONLY thing I would STRONGLY recommend is ask them to start the process ASAP. Tell them you already are more than half way. So don't want to lose time.

Don't want you to regret once you lose this GC process ....

Good luck.

Thanks Q. That is what I am also thinking. Offer is from a stable company. I was only worried about PERM/I-140 denials? Do you know those % denials? I don't want to think negative cases. New offer (pay and benefits are good), I will anyways get 3 year extension and by then PERM or I-140 should get cleared even if there is any audit (by bad luck). Appreciate your time in helping me here.

[sunsrk]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

[sunsrk]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

The ONLY thing I would STRONGLY recommend is ask them to start the process ASAP. Tell them you already are more than half way. So don't want to lose time.

Don't want you to regret once you lose this GC process ....

Good luck.

[ifaith]

Hi Veni
For the below comments, I have a question for you.
Till Sept USCIS have to use all the Green Card numbers that would mean till March 2007 or may be higher all the pre adjudicated cases have to be approved else the visa numbers will go waste.
In that case would when would they come back to solve cases like lagan's whose Priority date is Dec 2006. Would that start in Next fiscal year. Is there a chance of hims getting EAD till Sept 11, reason being my bro was also in PWMB as his date was Aug 2006 and he just became current and his filed his papers what are his chances to get EAD or Green card till Sept.

lagan2006,
Considering the processing time Sept 2011 is kind of tough but definitely before Christmas.

Even if we see jerky movement in the visa bulletins between August 2011 and October 2011 with EB2I&C PD, the chances of retrogressing into 2006 is minimal or none.

[pch053]

After this bulletin, will there be any change in the "EB2 PD Predictions" in the first post? As of now, the date is set to be around April'07, though now it is more likely that it will go past that. I think we might have a slightly clearer picture when we have the I485 pending data for the month of July. The key is probably the FD from EB1 and that will dictate the still available SOFAD numbers and hence PD movement for Aug and Sep months.

[ssvp22]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

If i were you, i will stick back for the GC. Unless you are going to get $1 million+ of stock options, no job is worth the risk.

[veni001]

Hi Veni
For the below comments, I have a question for you.
Till Sept USCIS have to use all the Green Card numbers that would mean till March 2007 or may be higher all the pre adjudicated cases have to be approved else the visa numbers will go waste.
In that case would when would they come back to solve cases like lagan's whose Priority date is Dec 2006. Would that start in Next fiscal year. Is there a chance of hims getting EAD till Sept 11, reason being my bro was also in PWMB as his date was Aug 2006 and he just became current and his filed his papers what are his chances to get EAD or Green card till Sept.

ifaith,
Three things need to happen
First, your i485 must be documentarily qualified (processing should be complete, FP, Background check...etc, usually 4 months)
Second, your PD should be current
Third, VISA number is available to assign

So, even if there are more VISA# available, if your applications is not documentarily qualified then USCIS can not assign a VISA number.

[vedu]

The July visa bulletin is Out. EB-2 India moves to March 8th, 2007.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

[veni001]

The July visa bulletin is Out. EB-2 India moves to March 8th, 2007.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

vedu,
Looks like you have been sleeping all day yesterday Wake Up!

[qesehmk]

Will do it over the weekend.

After this bulletin, will there be any change in the "EB2 PD Predictions" in the first post? As of now, the date is set to be around April'07, though now it is more likely that it will go past that. I think we might have a slightly clearer picture when we have the I485 pending data for the month of July. The key is probably the FD from EB1 and that will dictate the still available SOFAD numbers and hence PD movement for Aug and Sep months.

[vishnu]

q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?

[qesehmk]

My understanding is that that's how it always was. In fact Demand data is something that DoS started publishing in last few years. Regardless I do not really believe there is a lot to it.

However there is one thing that really piqued my interest. I never noticed this before (although the language is there for all prior bulletins). It says the EB limit is at least 140,000.

If you look at last year the FB spillover was first mentioned only in August bulletin. So I guess the agency likes to play it close and keep some discretion in providing FB spillover (FBSP) to EB. For year 2010 the FBSP was 10K. However the FB underutilization was 14K. So not all underutilization translated into FBSP.

In year 2010 the underutilization is 11K. So realistically the August bulletin should show FBSP 7-8K.... thereby bumping EB quota to 147-8K. That will a sweet sweet addition to any potential remaining SOFAD from EB1/5/2-ROW.

But as I said, the question is not whether it is there and whether it could be used. The question is whats the objective on DoS' part? The more I think about it, the more I have started to think, they really want to get through Jul 2007 and take in new applications. Don't take it to bank but .. I think they have certainly created the background whereby if the Agencies decide to do so, they will have the ability and means to do so.

q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?

[vishnu]

Q - so going back to something you mentioned on a previous post, for a visa number to be used (and waste avoided), not sufficient that the i-485 has been submitted - it must be found documentararily complete?

[qesehmk]

Simple answer is yes.

A more complex answer would be a question - Does "Documentarily Qualified = Preadj" ?? If not, intuitively "Preadj > Documentarily Qualified", is that right?

Spec what's your take on these questions?

Q - so going back to something you mentioned on a previous post, for a visa number to be used (and waste avoided), not sufficient that the i-485 has been submitted - it must be found documentararily complete?

[Spectator]

Q,

Not sure why you think that. Comments inline.

For year 2010 the FBSP was 10K. However the FB underutilization was 14K. So not all underutilization translated into FBSP.

In FY2009 FB used 215,333 visas versus an allocation of 226,000. That was an under-use of 10,667. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09...t_TableV_1.pdf

In FY2010, EB received an allocation of 150,657 or 10,657 above the initial allocation of 140,000. The difference of 10 can probably be accounted for under special provisions.

In year 2010 the underutilization is 11K. So realistically the August bulletin should show FBSP 7-8K.... thereby bumping EB quota to 147-8K. That will a sweet sweet addition to any potential remaining SOFAD from EB1/5/2-ROW.

In FY2010 FB used 226,651 visas versus a limit of 226,000. There are no spare visas from FY2010 FB to allocate to EB in FY2011. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...bleV-PartI.pdf

In fact, unusually, DOS published the Annual Numerical Limits this year http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf which show that EB has 140k.

DOS will still be waiting for USCIS to supply the figures they need, so they can't categorically state the numbers calculated under INA 201, but that doesn't mean they will change.

But as I said, the question is not whether it is there and whether it could be used. The question is whats the objective on DoS' part? The more I think about it, the more I have started to think, they really want to get through Jul 2007 and take in new applications. Don't take it to bank but .. I think they have certainly created the background whereby if the Agencies decide to do so, they will have the ability and means to do so.