EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

pch053,
Primary to dependent ratio(avg) for EB5 is 1:1.9( or multiplication factor of 2.9).

In the past five year we haven't seen EB5 consuming more the 5k. If the demand is as high as we are predicting for this year, i don't think USCIS has to propose recent changes to EB5 visa process

[veni001]

Hello Veni,

You mean to say the all the above demand is pre adjudicated demand,And there is some other demand which is not counted in the demand data?. Anyways if dos is relying on this data to move the dates, that's all we need to consider right?.

neospeed,
That's right, since most of the EB2I&C pending are filed during July 2007 Fiasco, most of them should have been pre-adjudicated by now.

[qesehmk]

Shaumack thanks for pointing it out. There is somebody who is using information from this forum and publishing on MITTBBS. We are perfectly fine with that as long as they credit us. We wish the chinese folks and all kinds of people good luck in their immigration process.

Its possible they might have talked to some lawyer but somehow I find it hard to believe. Anyway ... its not worth further discussion. Just like our source is providing us information we don't mind others using it and posting it on their site.

Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be.

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

[veni001]

Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.

If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

Also,
Looking at USCIS Dash Board shows only 1,242 I-526 Receipts(EB5-Primary) from June 2010 - March 2011, 1,134 completions(Q1+Q2 FY2011 = 681) and 915 are pending as of march 2011!

[hsinghjkaur]

From the past observations, Demand Data generally comes out later in the day around 2 PM PST, so there is still a possibility of it...

[sha_kus]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

[hsinghjkaur]

Not sure how it is released before demand data but anyways as it is at official site, we can believe it

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

[neogator]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

Is it really March 07 ??? Holy Cow!!

[03May07]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

WOW!!! Q aren't you in Q

'Happier' is infact greater than 'Happy'

Q your source is awesome!!

[TeddyKoochu]

"08-Mar-2207" - This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007. Q congratulations I think you are current now and on track to get GC this month.

[vishnu]

Very interesting that no commentary was provided on EB2 category... that plus no demand data published pre-visa bulletin = VERY interesting

[soggadu]

OMGGGGGGGGG....Q i told ya you & your source will be current...now i wish both of u get ur gc's soon... guys...very positive... i am hoping i too will be able to apply for EAD this year with Oct 22 2007 PD....

LET THE ANALYSIS BEGIN.....

[neospeed]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5489.html

march 07 wow

[mpurna77]

Is it really March 07 ??? Holy Cow!!

WOWW!!!!!!!!!

This time it broke all rules, before demand data earlier but sweet EB2I March 07.

Then by Sep VB it will current for all to apply EAD or Aug 07.

There is no comments on EB2 or EB3 to EB2 porting that is very good new going forward.

Its assures there will be more happiest movement in coming bulletins.

:-)

[soggadu]

WOWW!!!!!!!!!

This time it broke all rules, before demand data earlier but sweet EB2I March 07.

Then by Sep VB it will current for all to apply EAD or Aug 07.

There is no comments on EB2 or EB3 to EB2 porting that is very good new going forward.

Its assures there will be more happiest movement in coming bulletins.

:-)

I am hoping for year end 2007 by Sep...

[angryclubs]

My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!

[donvar]

Q ,
Your source is reliable. Congrats . This is a good movement.

[mpurna77]

My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!

Congratulations...you are the lucky man..

[soggadu]

"08-Mar-2207" - This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007. Q congratulations I think you are current now and on track to get GC this month.

What are your predictions for coming months...

[pch053]

Wow, almost a 5 month forward movement! Now, my feeling is that it will go past July-Aug'07 in the Sep bulletin.

[sidd21]

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

[qesehmk]

Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.

[soggadu]

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

hang on tight...you will be in by Aug 2011

[leo07]

so close & yet so far..I'm sure you'll get through this cycle. In fact, TeddyK, you & I could all get out.

[skpanda]

Unfortunately you are not eligible. Good news is you will be current in August Bulletin. Good luck!

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?