EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[soggadu]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

Veni... If we r expecting 24k for final quarter with around 21k pending applications... Why are the predictions still around April/may 07??

[veni001]

Veni... If we r expecting 24k for final quarter with around 21k pending applications... Why are the predictions still around April/may 07??

soggadu,
As you can see from the discussion, we are counting 24k as upper bound and 18k on the conservative side.

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
Which is not true please see PERM Matrix in FACTS AND DATA Section.

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
As you can see from the discussion, we are counting 24k as upper bound and 18k on the conservative side.

I understand that is the upper bound , I think you put in the upper bound assuming they might be hitting that date if possible right...so my question is about that possibility... What will happen if it is > 22k of spiller for the last Quarter?

[suninphx]

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

If you look for the posts for a 1-2 months back or so...this point has been discussed extensively and every one kind of agrees that concerned authorities may like to go for 'controlled' movement of dates.

[tanu_75]

If you look for the posts for a 1-2 months back or so...this point has been discussed extensively and every one kind of agrees that concerned authorities may like to go for 'controlled' movement of dates.

Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

[veni001]

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

[suninphx]

Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.

[Spectator]

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

[veni001]

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports to the list.

[ssvp22]

COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.

Controlled might be more like 1-2 months or at max 3 months.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports to the list.

Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

[bieber]

tanu_75

is your pd in 1st quarter of calendar 2008?

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thank you. Pretty good list. I can't think of anything for now to add.

I would list the sources in a way it is useful for readers of our site to comprehend better.

So one way could be to list all sources to figure out what's happening with various stages of GC.

Labor
140
485/CP

I would put various sources under these headings.

Secondly I would also add one more stage "Analysis". So those who are interested in analyzing further... that's where I would put things like TRACKITT or Historical Data etc.

And then I would add one more section (may be called "Other Immigration Resources" where I would list other sites such as Murthy , IV and all other sources where there is good discussion and people can go for advice. )

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.

[veni001]

Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

Spec,
Don't worry, missing sth happens with almost all of us.

[srini1976]

Hi Q,
Any updates from your source on the EB2(I) movement for July VB?

[Spectator]

Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.

Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

[03May07]

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will try Very good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?

[ssvp22]

Q any update from your secret source, like last month. Its pretty hard to wait till Friday when every moment on the job sucks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

Spec Thanks for changing the description I see it now.

[qesehmk]

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

[ChampU]

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..

[bieber]

I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..

dems are more interested in Palin's ticket than Reps, Since Obama needs some push to get elected for 2nd time Palin may be their best opposition