EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[skpanda]

Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed. With regards EB1 by inventory difference only 9 out of the 12K has been allocated and then in the coming months also since there are no fundamental changes we can expect more.

As you say they are actively working to expedite EB5s by softening and bending rules. So assuming they are able to give GCs and clear whatever pipeline they have ... (which I believe is not more than 2K) then subtracting that 2K from the 8K SOFAD last year gives you 6K. But I guess that's as far worse as it can get.

I do not think the premium processing will happen in FY2011 (since they are just proposing now.. it will take several months to implement it).
Looking at historic data.. i think we should be able to get 8K... but i agree with Q - lets have a worst case 6K... and best case would be 8k.

More the better for all of us!

[Monica12]

Hello all!
All I can say is WOW! I have just gone through this whole thread and it's amazing. Thank you so much for taking the time to do all this analysis and calculations. It helps people like me who's life decisions are sadly dependent on GC, priority date, VB etc. etc...
Keep up the good work! It is highly appreciated

[Spectator]

By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?

If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..

skpanda,

If you think about the relative splits of CP/AOS and the different processes employed by DOS and USCIS, CP cases with later PDs are almost certainly going to get approved, whilst AOS cases wouldn't necessarily be.

I'll use theoretical numbers to keep it simple.

If there were a possible combined 10,000 CP/AOS EB2 cases made Current by Cut Off Date movement, then 9,800 would be AOS and only 200 would be CP. That isn't many cases for DOS to process in a month and the PDs of the CP cases would advance rapidly, even when dealt with strictly in PD order.

Additionally, all the CP cases would be processable immediately, since no I-485 is required and the NVC would have previously sent out fee requests etc (in fact everything leading up to the final interview notice.)

In the DOS process, I believe a visa is allocated to the case when the interview notice is generated. Upon successful interview the visa is issued, otherwise it is returned to DOS for reuse.

So, even if the dates retrogressed before the actual interview, the visa would remain available to issue. Even if that were not true, organizing an interview date is far quicker than the USCIS adjudication process for nearly 50 times more cases.

Contrast this to the USCIS process.

Firstly the applicant has to submit an I-485 application, no earlier than the start of the month. They then have to wait for this to be adjudicated, which can take several months.

Finally, at the point of approval, USCIS request the visa for the case. By this point, it is quite possible that the dates have retrogressed and a visa is no longer available to issue.

Even for cases already with USCIS, it takes a lot more approvals to move through the PDs because the numbers are so much larger.

Especially if DOS are trying to build a pipeline and then retrogress the dates, CP cases with later PDs stand a significantly greater chance of being approved within the window when the PD is Current, because they are already in the system, most of the processing has already been done and there are lower numbers to be dealt with.

AOS cases might have to wait up to a year longer for approval, when the dates next advance again.

My thoughts anyway and why CP might have significant advantages in some situations.

[Monica12]

This might be a stupid question..but I was wondering...
If the PD becomes current, for eg. in September and there is retrogression in October. What happens then? Will they definitely process the GC or is the processing delayed because of retrogression in the following months?
The reason I ask is because I'm EB2 I , PD April 30, 2007, I-140 approved, have filed I-485 and hoping I am current in September....

[qesehmk]

monica welcome.

Teddy had few months back talked about this scenario. We have good reasons to believe that they will assign view in September but the actual approval might arrive in Oct.

As per retrogression, the best guess today is that if the dates move at 3 months per month for next 3 months then there won't be any retrogression. If they move faster there will be retro..

This might be a stupid question..but I was wondering...
If the PD becomes current, for eg. in September and there is retrogression in October. What happens then? Will they definitely process the GC or is the processing delayed because of retrogression in the following months?
The reason I ask is because I'm EB2 I , PD April 30, 2007, I-140 approved, have filed I-485 and hoping I am current in September....

[pch053]

If the dates move for 3 months in the next 3 months, then EB2-I PD will reach July'07. Do you think there is a possibility for that? I personally will be very happy if that happens (since my PD is July'07) but that might be stretching things a bit. But, who knows what the scenario will be if there are still more spillover left from EB1!

[qesehmk]

If the dates move for 3 months in the next 3 months, then EB2-I PD will reach July'07. Do you think there is a possibility for that? I personally will be very happy if that happens (since my PD is July'07) but that might be stretching things a bit. But, who knows what the scenario will be if there are still more spillover left from EB1!

Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007. So even if it moves to Jul 07... it will not retrogress in Oct since in Oct there will be another 3K available towards 2012.

[Monica12]

Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months

[Monica12]

Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007. So even if it moves to Jul 07... it will not retrogress in Oct since in Oct there will be another 3K available towards 2012.

So, with PD April 30, 2007, even if I can't make it this fiscal year, I might have a chance in Q1 of 2012.....
I have been reading so much on this and was under the impression that things might stall and the next movement for EB2 I is likely only in Q4 of 2012.
Thanks again!

[qesehmk]

No GC is not a done deal ever until you have it in your hand.
Having said that in your particular case, more than likely you are preadj. Only the PWMBs will have to wait until the case moves through all checks.

Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months

So, with PD April 30, 2007, even if I can't make it this fiscal year, I might have a chance in Q1 of 2012.....
I have been reading so much on this and was under the impression that things might stall and the next movement for EB2 I is likely only in Q4 of 2012.
Thanks again!

If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not!

[Monica12]

Crystal clear now! Thanks Q.
Hoping and praying it's this year




If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not![/QUOTE]

[Spectator]

Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months

Monica,

Sorry if I confused you.

It is not that the I-485 adjudication takes a year (although it may take several months).

The Cut Off Date in the VB has to be later than your PD for 2 crucial parts of the process:

a) To be able to submit the I-485 and have it accepted by USCIS.
b) For the I-485 to be approved when it is adjudicated.

As we have seen before, dates can be Current to allow (a), but then retrogress. The final approval cannot happen until the dates are Current again. For July 2007 filers, this has been several years already.

The (rare) exception to this is if the visa number was allocated when the PD was Current, but the approval date is shortly after the dates have retrogressed.

So, yes, subsequent retrogression can delay the GC, if the Cut Off Dates retrogress to a date equal to or earlier than your PD.

Especially for new filers, if the dates are retrogressed shortly after the filing date, they may well find that they can submit their I-485, but it can't be approved until much later in the year, because EB2-I only has 2.8k visas initially in any FY. Only when sufficient spillover numbers become available, can the I-485 be approved.

Especially if DOS want to build a pipeline of future cases, this is a distinct possibility for many filers with later PDs.

I hope that hasn't confused you even more.

[Monica12]

Monica,

Sorry if I confused you.

It is not that the I-485 adjudication takes a year (although it may take several months).

The Cut Off Date in the VB has to be later than your PD for 2 crucial parts of the process:

a) To be able to submit the I-485 and have it accepted by USCIS.
b) For the I-485 to be approved when it is adjudicated.

As we have seen before, dates can be Current to allow (a), but then retrogress. The final approval cannot happen until the dates are Current again. For July 2007 filers, this has been several years already.

The (rare) exception to this is if the visa number was allocated when the PD was Current, but the approval date is shortly after the dates have retrogressed.

So, yes, subsequent retrogression can delay the GC, if the Cut Off Dates retrogress to a date equal to or earlier than your PD.

Especially for new filers, if the dates are retrogressed shortly after the filing date, they may well find that they can submit their I-485, but it can't be approved until much later in the year, because EB2-I only has 2.8k visas initially in any FY. Only when sufficient spillover numbers become available, can the I-485 be approved.

Especially if DOS want to build a pipeline of future cases, this is a distinct possibility for many filers with later PDs.

I hope that hasn't confused you even more.

Thanks for the clarification Spec,
No, you didn't confuse me. I get it now
I filed my I-485 last minute in the 2007 fiasco, so according to Q , I'm most likely already pre-adjudicated (my online case status shows a SLUD in 2010 too, hoping that's what it is). This means when my PD becomes current, the GC will be approved(fingers crossed).
The retrogression is more of a problem for new I-485 filers ( that's what happened to me in 2007)
Thanks again!!!

[bieber]

Kanmani

The perm number includes EB2 and EB3

[vishnu]

So in 2006, the EB2 : 3 ratio for India was closer to 50% huh. 25703 Perm approvals x 90% (10% rejection at I-140) *50% x 2 to include dependents gets us to the 20k for EB2 I485. Now, it appears the ratio is closer to 80%.

[qesehmk]

Can't say that because the mix of EB2/3 is changing in favor of EB2. It is not known exactly how mcuh it shifted between 06-07.

Yes , the perm number includes Eb2 and Eb3 . What I mean to say is Even for 25K+ perm(2006) , the final eb2 I-485 number is 19K+(2006), Can we expect the total 2007 eb2 I485 numbers less than 20K , since 2007 perm total is less than 2006 perm total?

pls advice

[vishnu]

Q - typically what annual salary would you use in a spreadsheet to determine eb2 / eb3 (obviously guestimate).
I looked at 2009 PERM data just for India.
The EB2 % is as follows:
Min 75,000: 52%
Min 70,000: 63%
Min 65,000: 70%
Min 60,000: 80%

[Spectator]

Yes , the perm number includes Eb2 and Eb3 . What I mean to say is Even for 25K+ perm(2006) , the final eb2 I-485 number is 19K+(2006), Can we expect the total 2007 eb2 I485 numbers less than 20K , since 2007 perm total is less than 2006 perm total?

pls advice

Kanmani,

We don't know that the final number for 2006 was 19k.

The first Inventory was only published in August 2009.

We only know that 19k EB2-I I-485 were remaining at that time, but not the initial total.

By that time, 2006 PD cases could have been approved in July 2007 and some more in July-September 2008 when the Cut Off Date was 01JUN06. Trackitt data suggests none were approved in July 2007 (which is probably to be expected).

The best estimate for 2007 is that there are a further 16k possible EB2-I applications still to be filed by people who have never had a chance to do so, because the underlying PERM for the Primary applicant had not been Certified by the end of July 2007.

[mpurna77]

I just seen this post in trackit
'Not to disappoint all of you guys, but speaking to couple of friends who are being processed under EB2 currently. They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates. This was based on the USCIS feed back to the attorney's. I don't have any kind of proof this, but just from a friend who just got off with the attorney's on his GC process.
Did any one hear anything about this or prob. if you can talk to your attorney's they might have some info ?'.

I have a question is DOS or USCIS give their planning to Attorney in advance??

[qesehmk]

spec nice as always. does your 16k 2006 eb2 exclude row eb2? because they r already processed long back.

Kanmani,

We don't know that the final number for 2006 was 19k.

The first Inventory was only published in August 2009.

We only know that 19k EB2-I I-485 were remaining at that time, but not the initial total.

By that time, 2006 PD cases could have been approved in July 2007 and some more in July-September 2008 when the Cut Off Date was 01JUN06. Trackitt data suggests none were approved in July 2007 (which is probably to be expected).

The best estimate for 2007 is that there are a further 16k possible EB2-I applications still to be filed by people who have never had a chance to do so, because the underlying PERM for the Primary applicant had not been Certified by the end of July 2007.

[qesehmk]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.

I just seen this post in trackit
'Not to disappoint all of you guys, but speaking to couple of friends who are being processed under EB2 currently. They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates. This was based on the USCIS feed back to the attorney's. I don't have any kind of proof this, but just from a friend who just got off with the attorney's on his GC process.
Did any one hear anything about this or prob. if you can talk to your attorney's they might have some info ?'.

I have a question is DOS or USCIS give their planning to Attorney in advance??

[mpurna77]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.

May be its off topic when Bernanke give public statements nowadays after 100 yrs of Fed history, why we need these Attorneys in between. Can't they post on site or give statements directly to Immigration communities.

[ChampU]

mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.

As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.

I'm not sure what "They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates." means and don't know how "slow up things" is a good news??

[Spectator]

spec nice as always. does your 16k 2006 eb2 exclude row eb2? because they r already processed long back.

Q,

Sorry, I should have been clearer.

The 16k refers to the number of EB2-I applicants with PD of Jan-Dec 2007 still waiting to file I-485, based on the PERM calculations.

Virtually all the 2006 people should have filed already, either in July 2007 or in July-September 2008. Most, even audited PERM, had been Certified by then. The numbers don't suggest many others left with 2006 PDs who have never had a chance to file.

The real number of I-485 for 2006 PDs is impossible to say.

Simplistically, taking into account that EB2-I was Current up to September 2005, then the number of 2005 PD approvals in FY2008 would have been relatively lower. EB2-I received nearly 15k visas that year, so a fair number were probably for 2006 PDs.

The true number of EB2-I 2006 PD I-485s would be 19k plus those approved in the 3 months that PDs up to May 31 2006 were Current in FY2008.

I have no idea what the end figure would be, but probably well into the 20ks. Pick a number.

I do think it was a very interesting and astute question Kanmani raised. I wish I could answer it.

[mpurna77]

I'm not sure what "They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates." means and don't know how "slow up things" is a good news??

its not 'slow up things' is good news. when they (DOS) mentioning making things slow when 2007 dates means PD will go to Jan 2007. so its just another 2 months from Q estimates of Mar/Apr 2007.