EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.

Teddy, just look at the number of EB2-ROW cases pending since Oct 2010 in the I-485 tracker on trackitt.

[veni001]

Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.

whereismygclost,
Agree there are exceptions.

These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.

Teddy,
Slow rate of i140 approvals is only going to help us in the short run. EB2I&C should continue to advance at the same rate( as FY2010) to clear the backlogs.
Agree we did not see ROW PERM surge but as Q pointed, will be a washout between no FB spillover and possible higher % of EB2 filings this year.
I am hoping to see at-least a hint of EB2ROW demand in July VB from DOS/USCIS!

[shaumack]

shaumack,
DOS is quotingINA Section 202(a)(5) which allows them to allocate "otherwise unused" numbers, when ever they quote this section the language remain same.
But when they mentioned VISA availability they only mentioned that EB1 demand is extremely low and no mention of EB2ROW demand.

Hi Veni :
I would disagree with you on this. Please see similar excerpt from April 2008 VB. In general when DOS mention statement INA Section 202(a)(5), they will also mention why they think current demand level is low. In excerpt below it clearly states unused visa numbers in Employment Second Preference only. This year it says EB1 and EB2. I believe when May visa bulletin was released, EB2 ROW demand was low. This could have changed as we will progress in the year. But I take above statement some what encoraging.

"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially."

[veni001]

Hi Veni :
I would disagree with you on this. Please see similar excerpt from April 2008 VB. In general when DOS mention statement INA Section 202(a)(5), they will also mention why they think current demand level is low. In excerpt below it clearly states unused visa numbers in Employment Second Preference only. This year it says EB1 and EB2. I believe when May visa bulletin was released, EB2 ROW demand was low. This could have changed as we will progress in the year. But I take above statement some what encouraging.

"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially."

shaumack,
I agree, What they quoted with INA Section 202(a)(5) is contracting (or I should say not supporting) what they mentioned under VISA Availability Section in May 2011VB.

Since our approach is conservative, we are just waiting for more concrete info to bet on EB2ROW spillover.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, just look at the number of EB2-ROW cases pending since Oct 2010 in the I-485 tracker on trackitt.

whereismygclost,
Teddy,
Slow rate of i140 approvals is only going to help us in the short run. EB2I&C should continue to advance at the same rate( as FY2010) to clear the backlogs.
Agree we did not see ROW PERM surge but as Q pointed, will be a washout between no FB spillover and possible higher % of EB2 filings this year.
I am hoping to see at-least a hint of EB2ROW demand in July VB from DOS/USCIS!

1. Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011. As spec also pointed out earlier there was a peak in approval in Q1 CY 2011 corresponding to high filing in Q4 CY 2010 but looks likes its subsiding now. I think its still fair to say that we will get around 7K from EB2 ROW compared to 11.5K last year with the utilizations being same unfortunately we have lower cap this year.

[bieber]

Last year EB2IC received 26K with almost 0 from EB1 and 8k from EB2ROW.
Now even if EB2ROW gives 0, we know EB1 for sure giving 12k, so that makes a minimum of 30K sofad this year.

If EB1 gives anymore in Q3and Q4 and Eb2 yields even smaller number inventory should be cleared (understood that PWMB applications will fill to some level)

[kd2008]

Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011.

Thanks, Teddy. Yup, This was the data I was looking at.

[veni001]

Last year EB2IC received 26K with almost 0 from EB1 and 8k from EB2ROW.
Now even if EB2ROW gives 0, we know EB1 for sure giving 12k, so that makes a minimum of 30K sofad this year.

If EB1 gives anymore in Q3and Q4 and Eb2 yields even smaller number inventory should be cleared (understood that PWMB applications will fill to some level)

biber,
You are missing 10.0k FB spillover last year out of which about 7.0k filtered down to EB2I&C at the end.

[Spectator]

1. Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199

This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.

However if we look at things overall.

Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257

This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011. As spec also pointed out earlier there was a peak in approval in Q1 CY 2011 corresponding to high filing in Q4 CY 2010 but looks likes its subsiding now. I think its still fair to say that we will get around 7K from EB2 ROW compared to 11.5K last year with the utilizations being same unfortunately we have lower cap this year.

Teddy,

If you look in the FACTS & DATA section you will find that data compiled month by month and corrected for C of C etc for Primary applicants. Contrary to your post, it shows an increasing trend, although I think it possible that this will stabilize or fall back during the remainder of the year.

It also includes two types of Corrections for October figures, which may include approvals where the visa was allocated from the previous year's quota. That is particularly pertinent, as there were major differences between FY2010 and FY2011 October approvals.

Look at the EB2-India figures first to see the effect. I don't think anyone can believe that EB2-I had only reached 69% of last year's figure at the end of April 2011.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections

[mpurna77]

Hi Guys how to find that our case is pre-adjudicated. is there any way. I did take info pass two times to ask what is the status they said they waiting for number. But not said exactly its got pre-adjudicated.

Any way to find this?

mine PD 12/22/2006, is it going to be current in July VB?

[TeluguBidda]

Hi Guys how to find that our case is pre-adjudicated. is there any way. I did take info pass two times to ask what is the status they said they waiting for number. But not said exactly its got pre-adjudicated.

Any way to find this?

Infopass is the only way to know. The phrase, "waiting for visa number", appears to suggest that you have been pre-adjudicated. Do I have a guarantee, NO.

Another way to find, with very less guarantee is monitoring SLUDs on your I-485. If you see a recent SLUD which you did not cause (like you did not change address), you may assume that some activity was happening and that the activity could have been pre-adjucation.

The thing with SLUDs though, if someone is swinging your file to get more air because the room was not cold enough, it can generate SLUDs

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

If you look in the FACTS & DATA section you will find that data compiled month by month and corrected for C of C etc for Primary applicants. Contrary to your post, it shows an increasing trend, although I think it possible that this will stabilize or fall back during the remainder of the year.

It also includes two types of Corrections for October figures, which may include approvals where the visa was allocated from the previous year's quota. That is particularly pertinent, as there were major differences between FY2010 and FY2011 October approvals.

Look at the EB2-India figures first to see the effect. I don't think anyone can believe that EB2-I had only reached 69% of last year's figure at the end of April 2011.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections

I did the following query on Trackitt, I get diffferent figures than what you have tabulated.

I did the following query.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2.
Type = Primary
Status = Approved
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 285
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 264

This shows a decline of ~ 10%. Please advise if your figures for ROW also include NIW, Mex & Phl normally on Trackitt they follow the same trend. I think for ROW we should include Oct because there is nothing to stop ROW approvals unlike I/C so their approvals in Oct should be from the new years cap unlike I/C where there would be some residual approvals in Oct but the cap number came from the last years cap.

[Spectator]

I did the following query on Trackitt, I get diffferent figures than what you have tabulated.

I did the following query.

Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2.
Type = Primary
Status = Approved
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 285
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 264

This shows a decline of ~ 10%. Please advise if your figures for ROW also include NIW, Mex & Phl normally on Trackitt they follow the same trend. I think for ROW we should include Oct because there is nothing to stop ROW approvals unlike I/C so their approvals in Oct should be from the new years cap unlike I/C where there would be some residual approvals in Oct but the cap number came from the last years cap.

Teddy,

Include NIW
Do not include M & P, but EB2-ALL obviously does.

I have kept these figures on a daily basis since the beginning of the year and they are reported on a consistent basis. For instance, currently the EB2-I figures contains over 30 cases that are still reported as EB3 approvals on Trackitt.

There is every likelihood of all Categories and Countries leaking into October. USCIS is so busy dealing with EB2-IC spillover, it is almost inevitable. For instance, there were only 21 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW in September 2010, followed by 70 in October 2010.

If only ROW showed the trend, I would likely agree with you, but that is not the case.

PS For reference EB2-ROW currently stands at 268 EB2 & 34 EB2-NIW by Country of Nationality, plus 22 from India with a ROW Chargeability, plus 4 from China with a ROW Chargeability minus 2 with Indian Chargeability plus 1 Porting cases still shown as EB3-ROW minus one duplicate plus 3 that have been removed from Trackitt since approval. Hopefully I've described that correctly. The net figure is 329.

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.

[veni001]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section, EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

[qesehmk]

Good going Veni. Thanks.

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section, EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

[qesehmk]

Friends ... header updated. I am reasonably confident that the most likely date will be in Apr 2007 for EB2IC with a 1.5 months margin on either side (So the range would be mar-jun 2007. Pls check the top of the thread.

[Spectator]

USCIS dashboard has been updated:

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.

kd,

Thanks for the heads up.

There have only been more completions than receipts in a month once in the last 13 months.

The backlog (All Other Pending) has consequently risen from 11k to nearly 34k.

That is not a particularly enviable record.

[Spectator]

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section, EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

Veni,

I have the actual I-140 Dashboard data for October and November 2008 which you are estimating.

The full figures are:

--------- All Other ----- Awaiting
---------- Pending -- Cust Action -- Completions -- Receipts
Oct08 ----- 95,749 -------- 3,638 --------- 12,363 ----- 5,633
Nov08 ----- 92,106 -------- 2,927 --------- 10,811 ----- 4,664

although I think you only need the Receipt numbers.

Hope that helps.

[soggadu]

kd2008,
Thanks for the update.

That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)

Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k

I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section, EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.

So guys.... Is it bad news for expected Sofad ?? Any comments on where we stand with this new data??

[veni001]

So guys.... Is it bad news for expected Sofad ?? Any comments on where we stand with this new data??

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

[gcwait2007]

Friends ... header updated. I am reasonably confident that the most likely date will be in Apr 2007 for EB2IC with a 1.5 months margin on either side (So the range would be mar-jun 2007. Pls check the top of the thread.

Thanks for updating the thread. With closeby PD, I am anxious every minute
Earlier I used to feel that the work and stay in US is temp and lived in a way that I was ready to move back to India in short notice. These days I am buying many things and have the sense of settling down in work and place.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

with PD Oct 22 07, my hopes of applying for EAD during this FY are going down with every bit of new data that is emerging out..... hey god... thoda lift karadee...mujhe nahi, spillover ko....

[gcwait2007]

soggadu,
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k

V,

While I concur with your estimate of EB1+EB2ROW would provide around 10K, I would believe that EB5 would provide about 5800 visas. Total spillover would be 16K on the 'realistic side' for the last quarter. Pessimistic 14K, Realistic 16K, Optismistic 18K.

[ssvp22]

with PD Oct 22 07, my hopes of applying for EAD during this FY are going down with every bit of new data that is emerging out..... hey god... thoda lift karadee...mujhe nahi, spillover ko....

@soggadu i have the same priority date. Hope we can atleast get the EAD. Cannot stand my current job anymore.