Guys,
A quick question...
What happens when there is a slight EB2-ROW backlog for certain countries, which exceeds their per country quota?
Does this countries remain current or will retrogress. Is it possible for them to get spill over before EB2 I & C?
nayekal
Since 7% is calculated across FB and EB the only countries where this happens ever are India and China (as far as EB2 goes). For all other countries they will continue to get visas until they hit 7% across FB and EB.
Originally Posted by nayekal
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I thought spillover happens only in last Q. spillover before last quarter might be indication of something big in store.
This is an interesting thing.... The spillover was never issued before July but this time they did it before.... So what is the reason for this and what can we expect going forward??
Spec,Q,V,T,gcwait and others please let me know your take on this and why it happened....
Soggadu - I know the V you referred to was Veni but let me give my 2 cents too
EB1 usage is extremely low (CO words) and hence they have tons of spare visas left already. It is so low that even if demand picks up in Q4, they would have plenty of spare visas left. These guys are super conservative, so if they had 12k to spill over as of April, I'm guessing they likely would have at least 18k for the FY. They obviously want to maintain a cushion in case demand picks up and hence the 12k. Hence the movement. The next few months should see the remaining EB1 spill down + EB5 + EB2 ROW.
Hey Vishnu.... I understand that EB1 usage is low then why is it projected to have only 18K if the usage is extremely low? Also in previous Years even though we had low usage from others like family based, the sofas was applied only during last quarter... So we expect a huge rally going forward ??
soggadu,
The projection is based on trackitt , i140 receipts and EB1 inventory as of 10-01-2010.
Last edited by veni001; 05-17-2011 at 08:10 AM.
soggadu,
The reason for spillover early is due to very low EB1 demand. Please note that this is the first time since FY 2007 that EB1 demand is less than its regular quota!
vishnu,Soggadu - I know the V you referred to was Veni but let me give my 2 cents too
EB1 usage is extremely low (CO words) and hence they have tons of spare visas left already. It is so low that even if demand picks up in Q4, they would have plenty of spare visas left. These guys are super conservative, so if they had 12k to spill over as of April, I'm guessing they likely would have at least 18k for the FY. They obviously want to maintain a cushion in case demand picks up and hence the 12k. Hence the movement. The next few months should see the remaining EB1 spill down + EB5 + EB2 ROW.
Based on our estimates EB1 is at about 60% of its regular annual quota, and i agree there is a strong possibility for EB1 to yield another 6k by end of FY.
Vishnu is pointed out the 12k availability. Based on EB1 usage, CO seemed to be certain that 12k will be definitely available. Of course they will not be careless and not keep a buffer. But with respect to - 'since 12k is going to be available and let us start using it in May itself scenario', I am not sure what CO's thinking is. It could be let us do something extraordinary this year. Or, in addition to a spillover like last year (~19k), now that we have 12k more (total of 32k), we may not be able to use it all in the last quarter. Hence to avoid wastage let us use the 12k starting in May. All the same, there seems to be more than what was available this year excluding the EB1. That is the estimation here by all of the number crunchers (32-39k). They go by perm data and trackitt data as well. I have very little to doubt the estimates by Q and others. That is because trackitt data is probably more precise this year compared to the last due to increased usage. But I am sure of one thing - there is 1.5 to 2 times more visas this year than the last.
Hi,
Do you still think this year also we gonna get same spillover from EB2Row like last year, even though there are so many porting EB3-Eb2.
I am thinking this year spillover (other than 12k) will be less than last year, coz the way EB3-Eb2 porting happening in each country.
What is your take on this, anyone?
Assuming ROW demand stays same YoY .... its really ROW porting that would reduce ROW spillover (I should really say Fall Across) YoY.
Nobody seems to believe ROW porting is such a big issue since ROW EB3 is not in as dire situation as EB3IC.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q, do you honestly think YoY demand is going to remain same? Given the number of pending cases in trackitt, it hardly seems sensible in my opinion.
KD
trackitt trend suggests 5-10% reduction in YoY demand. So if we take it to bank, then that would be offset by the 10K FB spillover that has vanished from last year. So its a wash.
However you are right that ... if USCIS wants to adjudicate they have sufficient demand in pipeline that can exhaust entire ROW quota. But my gut feel is .. ROW will probably provide decent SOFAD 4-8K.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Also, the May visa bulletin referred to unused first AND SECOND preference visas. So there will be some fall across from EB2 ROW. Again would highlight the significance of how conservative they are - if they do say there will be some spillover, there will be spillover
Q
Is there any change in projections that will make it to the front page? Still says will be updated by the end of the week. Last week?
Sorry .... have been extremely busy with personal and business stuff. Will certainly do it by tomorrow morning.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
vishnu,Also, the May visa bulletin referred to unused first AND SECOND preference visas. So there will be some fall across from EB2 ROW. Again would highlight the significance of how conservative they are - if they do say there will be some spillover, there will be spillover
I don't think DOS mentioned SECOND preference...
"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries."
unless we want to take it as both EB1 and EB2ROW the "otherwise unused" numbers should be from EB1!
Last edited by veni001; 05-17-2011 at 11:32 AM.
Veni - from May bulletin:
Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.
"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. "
Last edited by shaumack; 05-17-2011 at 11:45 AM. Reason: Ignore as a re-post
shaumack,
DOS is quotingINA Section 202(a)(5) which allows them to allocate "otherwise unused" numbers, when ever they quote this section the language remain same.
But when they mentioned VISA availability they only mentioned that EB1 demand is extremely low and no mention of EB2ROW demand.
Q,
I agree, not sure how many of the ~33.0k i140 pending at USCIS as of Feb 2011 are EB2ROW!
These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.
Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.
Thanks for the correction I was quoting from the current processing times if real examples as you have quoted do not conform to that in general then really we should go by the real examples.
Friends I just found the following on Ron Gotchers blog there will be no FB spillover.
- http://www.immigration-information.c...us-year-13533/
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