EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says

[soggadu]

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says

I am hoping for the same B.... Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC.... Hoping to see good movement....

[qesehmk]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC....

[soggadu]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

100% agree with you...

[ChampU]

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

Well said, Q!

[ChampU]

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....

I guess the "Pending I-485 inventory report" holds answers to a lot of questions. We still are awaiting the report that is supposed to come out in April. If this report becomes available before the Q4 spillover season begins, it would help determine the projected demand and would have an impact on the final PD for the fiscal year.

[ChampU]

Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?

[bieber]

soggadu

many of us are in the same situation, completely understand.

[qesehmk]

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.

Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?

[mpurna77]

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

[soggadu]

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

purna... you will be current in July...IMO...at 485 stage each primary and dependent has their own applications...so it is inclusive...

[qesehmk]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report doesn't contain counselar processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

p.s. - DoS demand data contains both 485 inventory as well as CP but only the cases where they are preadj OR are current.

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

[TeddyKoochu]

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.

[Spectator]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: This report contains principal and dependent I-485s pending at the Nebraska Service Center and the Texas Service Center. It also includes the pre-adjudicated cases for which a visa number is not available and cases for which visa numbers are current but are still in process. In other words, it contains all I-485 currently pending at the two service centers as of October 1, 2010. However, there is a small population of cases within the jurisdiction of the Field Offices that are not included in this report, nor does it includes cases that are pending consular process at the overseas posts.

It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".

[mpurna77]

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?

[qesehmk]

There has been extensive discussion on porting on this forum. Please check out by searching.

Regarding 485 inventory, I am afraid I made a mistake. Its teh DoS demand data that includes CP. 485 inventory doesn't.

Thanks Spec for pointing it out.

I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?

[gcwait2007]

I hope that the following would be monthly demand data for July 2011 for EB2 category:

Prior to China India ROW GT
1/1/2007 2000 5000 0 7000
1/1/2008 7725 14800 0 22525
1/1/2011 7800 15000 200 23000

[veni001]

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.

Teddy,
I would add EB2ROW-M-P too!
And also 33k SOFAD includes EB2I&C annual quota (~6k)?

[veni001]

Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.


It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependants listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.

[veni001]

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependents listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.

Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.

[soggadu]

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too?
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated?
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011....

[veni001]

Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.

Spec,
That's right. With the current wait time for EB3, not sure how many out of the 120k actually going to make it to end of the tunnel.

[veni001]

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too? Probably not, there is data discrepancy between DOS & USCIS, unless otherwise mentioned in VB this number is zero for FY 2011
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here I don't think so, check PERM and Trackitt trends +pending inventory as of 10-01-2010
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated? Most likely, based on todate EB1 trending (both i140 & trackitt)
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011.... Our assumption is that USCIS only applied EB1 spillover until June VB, and remaining SOFAD will kick in July VB

soggadu,
Please see my responses above.