EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[parsvnath]

Can someone answer why USCIS moved the dates in May bulletin and not in July, if the intent is NOT to move the dates past July 2007. I think they want to keep all options open on the table including moving it past July 2007. If prediction is Apr 2007 or June 07 or even Dec 06, they could have waited till July and do the same thing they did last year.

[veni001]

Can someone answer why USCIS moved the dates in May bulletin and not in July, if the intent is NOT to move the dates past July 2007. I think they want to keep all options open on the table including moving it past July 2007. If prediction is Apr 2007 or June 07 or even Dec 06, they could have waited till July and do the same thing they did last year.

parsvnath,
The only reason i can count on is "CO" statement of 12k unused VISAs from EB1 for first two quarters of FY2011. This is the first time since FY 2007 that EB1 demand is less than its annual quota!

[Spectator]

Noticed that FY2010 EB2 should be 2.06, so the corrected table becomes:

-EB1 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 15,070 - 10,440 --- 11,450 --- 36,960 -- 2.45
2007 --- 10,967 -- 7,836 ---- 7,894 --- 26,697 -- 2.43
2008 --- 15,184 - 11,514 ---- 9,980 --- 36,698 -- 2.42
2009 --- 16,806 - 12,685 --- 11,433 --- 40,924 -- 2.44
2010 --- 17,117 - 12,941 --- 10,997 --- 41,055 -- 2.40
Avg. --- 75,114 - 55,416 --- 51,754 -- 182,314 -- 2.43

-EB2 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 10,604 --- 7,204 --- 4,103 --- 21,911 -- 2.07
2007 --- 22,303 -- 13,955 --- 7,802 --- 44,060 -- 1.98
2008 --- 34,535 -- 23,686 -- 11,824 --- 70,046 -- 2.03
2009 --- 22,098 -- 15,884 --- 7,570 --- 45,552 -- 2.06
2010 --- 26,131 -- 19,723 --- 8,092 --- 53,946 -- 2.06
Avg. -- 115,671 -- 80,452 -- 39,392 -- 235,515 -- 2.04

-EB3 -- Primary - Spouse - Children ---- Total - Ratio
2006 --- 40,929 -- 23,606 --- 25,573 --- 89,908 -- 2.21
2007 --- 36,539 -- 24,336 --- 23,336 --- 84,814 -- 2.32
2008 --- 20,584 -- 14,208 --- 14,208 --- 48,887 -- 2.38
2009 --- 18,359 -- 11,327 --- 10,968 --- 40,654 -- 2.21
2010 --- 16,714 -- 12,621 --- 10,340 --- 39,675 -- 2.37
Avg. -- 132,925 -- 86,098 --- 84,915 -- 303,938 -- 2.29

[suninphx]

Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

[veni001]

Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

suninphx,
Please check the PERM data under FACTS AND DATA section.

[veni001]

Noticed that FY2010 EB2 should be 2.06, so the corrected table becomes:

Spec,
Thank you. You are correct, I have also corrected table in my post above.
Here is the breakdown of EB1 primary into EB1A,EB1B and EB1C. As we can see EB1C is averaging about 55% of EB1

-Year --EB1A Primary -- EB1B Primary -- EB1C Primary - EB1(All)Spouse -EB1(all)Children - Total --- Ratio
2006 ---3,339(22.2%) ---2,951(19.6%) ---8,780(58.3%) ------10,440 -------11,450 ---------36,960 ---- 2.45
2007 ---2,243(20.5%) ---2,262(20.6%) ---6,463(58.9%) -------7,836 --------7,894 ---------26,697 ---- 2.43
2008 ---3,261(21.5%) ---4,274(28.1%) ---7,649(50.4%) ------11,514 --------9,980 ---------36,698 ---- 2.42
2009 ---3,442(20.5%) ---3,432(20.4%) ---9,932(59.1%) ------12,685 -------11,433 ---------40,924 ---- 2.44
2010 ---4,309(25.2%) ---3,990(23.3%) ---8,818(51.5%) ------12,941 -------10,997 ---------41,055 ---- 2.40
Avg.---16,594(22.1%) --16,908(22.5%) --41,642(55.4%) ------55,416 -------51,754 --------182,314 ---- 2.43

[leo07]

You can get the last 485-inventory data released( in jan??) and count the number of applications infront of you. This will not give you exact number, but a reasonably close number. Because there could be people who have not applied for 485 for dates not being current.

OR

This website below, does that for you:
http://immigrationroad.com/

Gurus,

Just want to know whats the best way to calculate the number of people ahead me based on PD. I am sure it has been discussed before, if so, please point me to that post.

Thanks.

[suninphx]

suninphx,
Please check the PERM data under FACTS AND DATA section.

So lets see...

For PD of Nov 7 2009 (EB2I) here is my calculation:

total PERMS: 426+11635+ 23064+23352+((16002/12)*10.25) ~72144
Less 10% Denials : 64930
Assuming Eb2/EB3 as 70/30 : 45451
Number of projected I485 = 45451*2.1 =95447
Add ~5000 porting cased = 100000

Is that right way to calculate?

Also the applications which will be approved till Sep 2011 are to be deducted from above number is that correct?

Thanks.

[Spectator]

The diff is only 100s . I think i might gone somewhere wrong . I deleted the non-Indian data . If i need to check again i have to start the whole process .

Thanks

Kanmani,

Can I suggest that you take the time to look at Pivot Tables within Excel. They can present the data in many ways without having to touch the data at all, which removes human error.

I had exactly the same problems.

There are some excellent tutorials on the web.

There are other alternatives, but none nearly as good as Pivot Tables, where Grouping can do all the work creating CY, Quarter, Month fields etc.

[suninphx]

You can get the last 485-inventory data released( in jan??) and count the number of applications infront of you. This will not give you exact number, but a reasonably close number. Because there could be people who have not applied for 485 for dates not being current.

OR

This website below, does that for you:
http://immigrationroad.com/

Thanks Leo..I did a rough calculation...check that out.

[Spectator]

Check it out. The difference is not insignificant.
If true, what it means is DoS issues visas at limit for FB. But DHS only used 214.5K towards FB.

As a consequence DoS should incresae the EB 2011 limit by 10.5K. (of course that ain't gonna happen unless a pressure group brings this to notice).

Q,

Remember, we are talking about the Department of Homeland Security here - possible the most inept department of all.

They couldn't organize the proverbial piss up in a brewery!

It is far more likely that their figures are just incorrect or they have not included some for reasons of their own. They certainly do not report all visas in all sub-categories.

The figures also include Consular Processed cases, so they could have just misreported those.

In any case, the Department of State is the final authority on the number of visas issued, so no amount of pressure is going to change the lack of spillover.

Time to take the tin-foil hat off.

Let's not forget, it usually takes USCIS until July or August to provide DOS with the final figures to set the annual limits, so maybe it will change, but I doubt it.

The DHS Report is usually published much later than this - now I understand why!

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind.

[qesehmk]

Spec there is nothing really to disagree about. I don't know the truth. So I only have doubts. 10.5K is a serious discrepancy. My gut feel is that DOS issued 226K but USCIS wasted 10.5K.

But I could be wrong.

Q,

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind.

[ifaith]

EAD - GreenCard
Hi Guys
Not related but trying to understand one more thing, since the PD moved till OCT 15th Does that mean people whose PD is before that and who became current they will get the GC within 30-90 days or they still have to go through EAD and all. The meaning of PD becoming current is that USCIS has actual numbers to give and hence the people whose PD became current will get card soon?
Is that correct?
Thanks

[anuran]

Spec

Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html

We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.

[qesehmk]

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?

We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.

[Spectator]

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?

Q,

If you look at last year's VBs you will see the figure was given as at least 140,000 until the August VB, when it was announced as 150,657.

The August VB contained the following paragraph:

F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 7th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2010 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2010 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,657

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2010 the per-country limit is 26,366. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,533.

I'm sure DOS knew what the figure was roughly, but not exactly.

In FY2009 USCIS the numbers were also finally fixed in August and in FY2008 it was in the September VB.

What is different this year is that DOS published the figures as 140,000 very early in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

Whilst we can't entirely rule out any change, the previous number of available visas from FB has always been very close to the number that can be calculated from looking at the previous year's DOS report, the difference presumably being the Parolees mentions above.

Since FB is reported as being several hundred over the 226,000 limit last year, DOS are probably confident that no numbers that USCIS provide will alter the calculations.

[TeddyKoochu]

@spec - Thanks for the find on the VB I believe they had declared this is little earlier on the demand data.
@q - If I remember correctly it was mid year in the demand data.

If we get family spillover this year I believe that the chances of crossing the Jul - Aug 2007 line are greatly increased.

[qesehmk]

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.

For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.

So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.

p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.

[anuran]

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.
For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.
So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.
p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.

I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.

[qesehmk]

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?

I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.

[kd2008]

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?

Yup, Q that is correct. Remember many/most Family-based cases are consular processed. So a visa may be approved but the person may not enter the U.S. for whatever reason.

[anuran]

"qesehmk: DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?"
Yes. Guess it is such that DoS as a dept. of foreign policy administration has to have a role in immigration. And DHS being responsible for national security also has to have a role in immigration. CIS is stuck in the middle with them although their boss is DHS. I remember reading Ron (imminfo) noting that DoS punished CIS for wasting visas in 2007 by making the dates current. Imagine Railway minister in India punishing Foreign ministry because the train between India and Pak is traveling empty.

[soggadu]

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ent-based.html

[zenmaster]

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ent-based.html

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai !

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007

[soggadu]

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai !

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....