EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Friends,
Please be patient until tomorrow, if not Friday!

[usernameone7]

The PD is contained within the case number.

Take a typical case number - A-09147-47047

The PD is the 5 digits following A- in Julian Date format.

The first 2 digits are the year, followed by the day of the year (Jan 1 = 001).

So this means the 147th day of 2009, or May 27, 2009.

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

[veni001]

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

Yes, if it is not a leaf year

If you want PERM data look at FACTS AND DATA thread.

[skpanda]

Thank you Veni and Spectator. So the 365th day is Dec 31st? Somehow I cannot convert my case # to my priority date. I want to calculate number of people before my priority date. Hence the questions.

Try this... u can put your priority date into the box and it will tell you how many people are before you.

http://immigrationroad.com/green-car...-i485-data.php

Note that Inventory/Demand is reflected only till July 2007. There are many other factors such as People before and after July 2007 who have not yet filed I485. So if your PD is after july 2007 you cannot estimate the number of people before you for sure. In addition, you will have to take into consideration that each application may take atleast 2+ visa numbers (for family)

You can also use the PERM data after July 2007 to estimate but it will be too many variables to put in and the estimate will have large margin of error in my opinion!

[anuran]

There is also one at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com. I believe that takes into account the inventory data + perm data + guesstimate of dependents.

[veni001]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

Q,
Spec clarified me on this, when we are crunching the numbers. DOL uses Calender Year (CY) date while assigning case number for PERM/LCA.

[usernameone7]

Try this... u can put your priority date into the box and it will tell you how many people are before you.

http://immigrationroad.com/green-car...-i485-data.php

Note that Inventory/Demand is reflected only till July 2007. They are many other factors such as People before and after July 2007 that have not yet filed I485. So if your PD is after july 2007 you cannot say it for sure. In addition, you will have to take into consideration that each application may take upto 2+ visa numbers (for family)

You can also use the PERM data after July 2007 to estimate but it will be too many variables to put in and the estimate will have large margin of error in my opinion!

I think that website is based on the inventory data. I spoke to couple of my friends and their priority date is early 2008 but the case # is A-07XXX-XXXXX. Lets forget about the case number to priority date thing.

My priority date is early 2008. So If I combine all the PERM disclosure date (i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009,2010) and do a query where decision date is greater than say August 18, 2007 and count all the records that start with A-07XXX and multiple by 2.1 and add it to the total pending numbers from the inventory data, should give me my answer, correct? I know I need to assume some % of EB3 vs EB2 and porting % and denial %.

[skpanda]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

I think the PD dates are calender year and not Fiscal.

So in the example A-09147-47047

09147 - should be 27th may 2009.

[veni001]

Duplicate post! deleted.

[veni001]

Q,
If you would like you can post the table from Post#1387 for i-140 data under FACTS AND DATA.

[veni001]

I think that website is based on the inventory data. I spoke to couple of my friends and their priority date is early 2008 but the case # is A-07XXX-XXXXX. Lets forget about the case number to priority date thing.

My priority date is early 2008. So If I combine all the PERM disclosure date (i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009,2010) and do a query where decision date is greater than say August 18, 2007 and count all the records that start with A-07XXX and multiple by 2.1 and add it to the total pending numbers from the inventory data, should give me my answer, correct? I know I need to assume some % of EB3 vs EB2 and porting % and denial %.

usernameone7,
You have the data on this forum (Please check post #1642), no need to crunch it again!

[qesehmk]

Q,
Spec clarified me on this, when we are crunching the numbers. DOL uses Calender Year (CY) date while assigning case number for PERM/LCA.

Thanks. Deleted wrong post.

Q,
If you would like you can post the table from Post#1387 for i-140 data under FACTS AND DATA.

DONE. Thanks Veni.

[veni001]

Thanks. Deleted wrong post.


Veni, I have already posted your last data under FACTS and DATA. Has something changed?

Q,
You may want to delete the language and just have the table, your call!

[usernameone7]

usernameone7,
You have the data on this forum (Please check post #1642), no need to crunch it again!

Yes and that post is making me nervous. So I decided to recalculate myself for my satisfaction, hope you understand.

Even if the 365th date is Sep 30, I am still not able to convert my case # to priority date. But as I said, I am ignoring that and picking up all the cases prior to A-08XXX.

[qesehmk]

Veni please check your private messages.

Q,
You may want to delete the language and just have the table, your call!

[gaurav811]

My PD is Nov 1st 2007 EB2. I am planning to change job now and restart GC and since its a 1.5 year contract I will have to take a calculated gamble. I will need to get the GC before my contract expires. I am also trying to predict when my PD will become current.

Based on calculations from senior members(Special thanks to gcwait2007, veni001 and qesehmk)

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

and


- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

So as per above,
the current demand with PD before Jan 1,2008 = 29,425
People with approved PERM before Dec 1, 2007 = 14206-1928 = 12,278
Assuming 6k + 6k = 12k for EB3->EB2 porting with PD before Dec,2007

Total = 30+12+12 = 54

Assuming 30k spillover this year and next......my Nov 1,2007 date should be current by Sept, 2008.

Is this a fair calculation ? I know, I might have made some poor assumptions in above calculations. Please critique me so I can learn and make a sound decision.
Thanks !

[veni001]

My PD is Nov 1st 2007 EB2. I am planning to change job now and restart GC and since its a 1.5 year contract I will have to take a calculated gamble. I will need to get the GC before my contract expires. I am also trying to predict when my PD will become current.

Based on calculations from senior members(Special thanks to gcwait2007, veni001 and qesehmk)

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

and


- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206

So as per above,
the current demand with PD before Jan 1,2008 = 29,425
People with approved PERM before Dec 1, 2007 = 14206-1928 = 12,278
Assuming 6k + 6k = 12k for EB3->EB2 porting with PD before Dec,2007

Total = 30+12+12 = 54

Assuming 30k spillover this year and next......my Nov 1,2007 date should be current by Sept, 2008.

Is this a fair calculation ? I know, I might have made some poor assumptions in above calculations. Please critique me so I can learn and make a sound decision.
Thanks !

gaurav811,
I believe you mean Sept 2012. As you stated above it is a gamble, if we assume the same amount of spillover next year, you will definitely get a chance to file for i-485 (again assuming you will get new PERM/i-140 filed with EB2 requirements by your new employer, recapture old PD). But the catch is once dates pass July 2007 then USCIS will see surge in applications and DOS may pull EB2(I&C) dates back, and if 180 days is not passed(after filing your i-485) before your contract expires you may not be able to use AC21 to move to a different employer.

Also we do not know how EB1,EB2ROW and porting(?) demand look like next year(economy will be a factor), so it will be be tough at this time to to predict!

[Spectator]

1st day is Oct 1st. That's when USCIS fiscal year starts.

Q,

That's an excellent thought. It didn't escape me either.

There seems to be a convention that the Julian Date format uses the Calendar Year.

I did originally test a start date of October 1st as well. When I did so, the minimum Certification time became 93 days instead of 1, so I became convinced that DOL also use the CY.

I seem to remember some discussions about NVC where receipt numbers used Julian Date + 500 for some reason. I don't know if that is still the case.

[gaurav811]

veni001......you are good. Yes I did meant Sept 2012. I couldn't have summarized my situation better. Risk is I will have to use PERM filed for more than 365 days and PD not current to change to a different employer after contract ends. Will again have to restart GC process with the third employer. The salary raise on switching now is pretty good but the risks of doing GC twice and finding a new employer after 1.5 year is also high. Damn this GC man.....have to sit at same employer for 7 years. Not learning much. Career is getting F****d.

Anyways, sorry for the rant. Thanks a lot for the advice.

[Spectator]

Yes and that post is making me nervous. So I decided to recalculate myself for my satisfaction, hope you understand.

Even if the 365th date is Sep 30, I am still not able to convert my case # to priority date. But as I said, I am ignoring that and picking up all the cases prior to A-08XXX.

usernameone7,

If you post your A-08XXX number, I'd be happy to look at it. It won't compromise your privacy, if you don't post the last 5 digits of the case number.

You can find a Julian Calendar for both ordinary and Leap Years here: http://landdb1.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/calendar.html Maybe that will help.

[veni001]

Q,

That's an excellent thought. It didn't escape me either.

There seems to be a convention that the Julian Date format uses the Calendar Year.

I did originally test a start date of October 1st as well. When I did so, the minimum Certification time became 93 days instead of 1, so I became convinced that DOL also use the CY.

I seem to remember some discussions about NVC where receipt numbers used Julian Date + 500 for some reason. I don't know if that is still the case.

Spec,
Don't you think the PERM data for PD2007 (FY-CY Table) confirms that the date used is indeed CY!

[Spectator]

veni,

I checked only when I started doing the conversion. Everything else since that time has only confirmed it.

I have absolutely no doubts, but Q raised a fair point and I wanted everybody to understand that FY vs. CY was indeed investigated.

[gcseeker]

Gaurav

I am in a similar situation with PD EB2I Nov 2007 and faced with a similar situation except do not have an expiring contract.If I may suggest something go ahead and accept the offer you have currently.I too strongly beleive just like Veni suggested USCIS will pull back the numbers after July 2007 is breached. You can take the pay hike , work at a different place , learn something new and shift to a new employer in 2013 and start your gc process .By that time your date should be definetly definetly current and it will happen much quicker because you can get things done concurrently. Also your work exp would have improved along the way.

That way you will have not compromised your career growth due to the gc decision.

If you do decide not to change the downside will be you will be stuck with the same job without an hike and also no guarantee of an gc.You will not be able to accept promotions at the same job and (god forbid ) if there is an layoff at your place ...anyhow you will be forced to restart the process all over again.Even if you barely manage to file the 485 in Sep 2012 you will have to hang around for six more months effectively stagnating your career well into 2013.

Again it is a very personal decision.Just looking at the numbers you calculated the best case estimate for Nov 2007 seems to be sep 2012 assuming the 30K spillover...if things change it will be even worse....you have to hold the current job then till god knows 2014 ?.....

veni001......you are good. Yes I did meant Sept 2012. I couldn't have summarized my situation better. Risk is I will have to use PERM filed for more than 365 days and PD not current to change to a different employer after contract ends. Will again have to restart GC process with the third employer. The salary raise on switching now is pretty good but the risks of doing GC twice and finding a new employer after 1.5 year is also high. Damn this GC man.....have to sit at same employer for 7 years. Not learning much. Career is getting F****d.

Anyways, sorry for the rant. Thanks a lot for the advice.

[veni001]

veni,

I checked only when I started doing the conversion. Everything else since that time has only confirmed it.

I have absolutely no doubts, but Q raised a fair point and I wanted everybody to understand that FY vs. CY was indeed investigated.

Thanks Spec

[ravisekhar]

As a data point for the issue raised by usernameone7. Here are my GC details hope it will be usefull . My priority date is Jan 10th 2008 and ETA Case Number is A-07354-xxxxx.