Q, thank you for sharing the news. I dont doubt your updates one bit (similarly updates from Spec, Teddy and others), but I cannot stop myself asking you if the source is reliable. I am sure, many of us, like I, are very tired of getting hopes up and then the visa bulletin pours super cold water on our optimism / hope.Originally Posted by qesehmk
EDITED: Please disregard my post, obviously I should have read all of your posts. Sorry.
Good news! I hope God is listening to my prayers. Anxiously waiting...
Last edited by gcwait2007; 05-10-2011 at 12:40 PM.
One other thing to note, may be, CO's perspective of "substantial movement" meant about 2 months movement. Whenever we heard of CO's "substantial movement" in the past, it used to be around 2 months or so, wasn't it? So, may be, the CO is saying now that instead of "1 or more weeks" in the June bulletin, it would be "several weeks" (upto 8 weeks).
Q,
Does CO means Mr. Charles Oppenheim..?
Q thanks for posting, just praying and hoping for the best. Any movement is welcome.
Q,
I very much hope you are proved correct.
It would make a great deal of sense to move it now, rather than waiting to July.
If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated might be approved within the FY - just.
To be really effective, this strategy would need to move the dates a year.
Still, we've learnt that the term "significant" means different things to different people. The VB said "India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable.", so to CO, even 2 months may well qualify as "significant".
I want to believe (sounds like a quote from the X Files).
Last edited by Spectator; 05-10-2011 at 04:53 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q,
Hopefully this comes true!!! Awesome News!!!
Till Sep 2011 - Looks like its Waka Waka this time for EB2(I). Looking forward to the official confirmation (June 2011 VB release)!!! Game starts now !!!
Have been a long time reader of this forum though never registered ( My bookmark says page 32!!). Very informative and logical discussions. Keep up the good work.
As for my question, hope they make the EB2I current for few months as my PD is Nov 09!!( I know that's very....)
Oooo, I would like that. Mine is Nov 10.
On the less lighter side, It does make sense to move the dates by a year now rather than very late. Assuming that they are moving the dates by 6-12 months, it shows that they are now confident of the numbers that they will get and can process. Confidence on the USCIS'/DoS' part is good for us. They may even be believing that hence forth they can move at a steady pace for a long time. I have a distinct feeling that they might have way more spillover numbers than they themselves anticipated.
Yes.
I agree. Lets see what happens.
Some of us are expecting it to be current... that may seem far fetched. Don't let your imagination run that wild. It just hurts when things don't turn out that good. However I do think that USCIS needs to make it current in the near future and take all applications to replenish their pipeline of 485s.
Last edited by qesehmk; 05-10-2011 at 01:23 PM.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
What is the incentive to move the dates by a year given that
1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?
2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.
In that case I don't think they will risk moving the PD by a lot in June. My guess is they will do it gradually from June till August and then have a big jump in September. And gradually might mean 2-4 months but not years.
Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
I entered text in blue.
Last edited by anuran; 05-10-2011 at 01:21 PM.
Demand data out;..
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725
Last edited by skpanda; 05-10-2011 at 01:30 PM.
gaurav:My take on your questions...
(1) Under EB2 there are not tons yet.( actually, at the moment, they have less number of 485s in kitty than available visas for the rest of the year.)
(2) Same explanation as above applies here'
(3) Common adjectives used for porting are High, Extremely high, unbelievable high etc...
These are "relative" in perception. For CO, 6k or 7k of porting could be extremely high, since it covers 2-4 years of EB2I. For us(poor us), 6k to 7k( even 9k) is not much( at least we prepped ourselves that way)
The point I want to drive is, depending upon where you sit in the auditorium the view of hot heroine differs here
As per our calculations, hence our predictions might be closer to the actual... let's see.
My take on why it could happen and maybe needs to. I could equally argue why not to do it.
Comments inline.
Last edited by Spectator; 05-10-2011 at 08:12 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My earlier thread
I believe that the grand total came down by ~ 4K from the demand data last month so this would imply that 4K cases became current in May and would get approved.
EB2 I reduced from 13300 to 10425..
3K is the correct figure
Great ! Your calculations have been remarkably accurate and may be you can comment on the EB2I cut-off date?My earlier thread
I am guessing that DOS cannot just move to 01SEP06 as that would cause only 1 month movement for EB-2C. They would probably move both move EB-2IC to 01OCT2006, to ensure enough completions in June?
Almost 3000 down for India alone. That is very reasonable. They will probably process >30k by the end of this FY. And with the anticipated large scale movement, they will carry a load of 20-30k into the next FY. Perhaps that is their goal. Now I want to see the new inventory.
Add on porting at, say, 0.5k to give a total of 3.5k EB2-I visas assumed to be consumed in May.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
gcwait2007,
You demand data prediction was very very close.
Based on the deduction of 3K figures..can any one estimate the porting factor..?
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