EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

KD Thanks for clarifying.

For EB-5 and 4 there is no I-140 filing. EB-5 does I-536 and EB-4 does I-360.

[veni001]

Veni

Once again good job. Your other format was great. Is it possible to keep it same and incorporate Q2 labor data?

Regarding your question below ... I have the same question. the answer it seems is ... that receipt of I-140 and approval of 485 are time lagged. So although 2010 saw less receipts ... it could still be hit with 2009 unadjudicated 485s.

p.s. - a Minor correction / question. Wouldn't EB4-5 also file I-140? So the difference is really EB1-4-5. Right?

Q,
Kd2008 is correct, Only EB1-3 need i140. 2011Q2PERM link is not working, will update the table once i am able download the data.

As far as your answer, we are taking the rolling window. For example 10-01-2010 inventory show about 8k EB1485 pending (=3.5k EB1-i140) these are FY 2010 application but will be adjudicated in FY 2011. We can expect the same number from FY 2009 to FY 2010 and FY 2008 to FY 2009 and the net effect is neutral! Since EB1 is always current this number shouldn't be high.

Even if we off sett 4k EB1-i140 for this, still there is a huge gap between EB1 approvals and EB1485 approvals in FY 2010??

[veni001]

Not sure this is pure coincidence or what? but always similar posts pop up at this blog right after we post here. They broke-it down to VB cut-off dates for each month!

Note: We posted PWMB for PD2007 here on April 25,2011, and their post is dated April 28, 2011.

[qesehmk]

Immitation is the best form of flattery.

There is another chinese blog mittabs or something. They used to copy and publish the entire header from our thread each time I updated the header. So that's good. One can complain that one receive the credit or mention somewhere. But I can live with it.

Not sure this is pure coincidence or what? but always similar posts pop up at this blog right after we post here. They broke-it down to VB cut-off dates for each month!

Note: We posted PWMB for PD2007 here on April 25,2011, and their post is dated April 28, 2011.

[anuran]

I've seen that forum, mitbbs. It actually makes interesting reading when you combine it with google translate.

Just today morning, when I looked at the us-non-immigrants, I started wondering if I am dealing with the one and same person on both sites, but then the numbers as well as approach to presenting the results are quite different. It could be mere coincidence too that a few have decided at the same time to look into the perm data for more insight. Good Day.

[Spectator]

Veni,

The above table is simply amazing. I have a favor to ask of you. Could you please build similar table each for India and China? If its already been done could you please let me know the link?

Thanks!

kd2008,

Here you go.


INDIA ---- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1 -- CY Total
2005 -------- 393 ------ 27 ------- 5 ------- 1 ---------- 0 ------- 426
2006 ----- 11,461 ----- 108 ------ 54 ------ 11 ---------- 1 ---- 11,635
2007 ----- 12,719 --- 8,335 ----- 962 --- 1,005 --------- 25 ---- 23,046
2008 ---------- 0 --- 8,099 -- 10,358 --- 3,702 -------- 679 ---- 22,838
2009 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 15,054 --------- 92 ---- 15,154
2010 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,157 ------ 8,502 ---- 17,659
Total ---- 24,573 -- 16,569 -- 11,387 -- 28,930 ------ 9,299 ---- 90,758


CHINA ---- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1 -- CY Total
2005 -------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------ 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ---------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------ 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ---------- 3 ----- 5,903
2008 ---------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 666 -------- 109 ----- 4,055
2009 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 2,169 ---------- 9 ----- 2,180
2010 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,016 -------- 883 ----- 1,899
Total ----- 6,846 --- 3,328 --- 2,112 --- 4,052 ------ 1,004 ---- 17,342


Ch & In. - FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1 -- CY Total
2005 -------- 579 ------ 35 ------- 5 ------- 1 ---------- 0 ------- 620
2006 ----- 14,514 ----- 147 ------ 70 ------ 14 ---------- 1 ---- 14,746
2007 ----- 16,326 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 --------- 28 ---- 28,949
2008 ---------- 0 --- 9,464 -- 12,273 --- 4,368 -------- 788 ---- 26,893
2009 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------ 10 -- 17,223 -------- 101 ---- 17,334
2010 ---------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 10,173 ------ 9,385 ---- 19,558
Total ---- 31,419 -- 19,897 -- 13,499 -- 32,982 ----- 10,303 --- 108,100

Hope that is what you wanted.

[Spectator]

Here's the breakdown for Approved cases:

Country/Grp - 2011 Q1 -- 2011 Q2 -- 2011 H1 -- 2010 H1
CHINA --------- 1,006 ---- 1,109 - -- 2,115 ---- 2,142
INDIA --------- 9,275 ---- 8,555 --- 17,830 --- 12,969
MEXICO ---------- 709 ------ 661 -- - 1,370 ---- 1,644
PHILIPPINES ----- 745 ------ 501 - -- 1,246 ---- 1,762
ROW ----------- 6,577 ---- 6,066 --- 12,643 --- 16,437
Grand Total -- 18,312 --- 16,892 --- 35,204 --- 34,954

Total approvals are similar to last year, but India represents a bigger %.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Don't you think that's very strong demand for ROW+M+P EB2?

As you said earlier .. I would be more cautious than optimistic.

Here's the breakdown for Approved cases:

Country/Grp - 2011 Q1 -- 2011 Q2 -- 2011 H1 -- 2010 H1
CHINA --------- 1,006 ---- 1,109 - -- 2,115 ---- 2,142
INDIA --------- 9,275 ---- 8,555 --- 17,830 --- 12,969
MEXICO ---------- 709 ------ 661 -- - 1,370 ---- 1,644
PHILIPPINES ----- 745 ------ 501 - -- 1,246 ---- 1,762
ROW ----------- 6,577 ---- 6,066 --- 12,643 --- 16,437
Grand Total -- 18,312 --- 16,892 --- 35,204 --- 34,954

Total approvals are similar to last year, but India represents a bigger %.

[Spectator]

Spec

Don't you think that's very strong demand for ROW+M+P EB2?

As you said earlier .. I would be more cautious than optimistic.

Q,

Since you ask, frankly it worries me - a lot.

Knowing that there is a lag time from PERM approval to I-140 and I-485 approval, here is the situation if we took PERM approvals for the last half of FY2010 and the first half of FY2011.

County/Grp - 2010 H2 -- 2011 H1 - Rolling Yr
CHINA -------- 1,910 ---- 2,115------- 4,025
INDIA ------- 15,961 --- 17,830------ 33,791
MEXICO ------- 1,662 ---- 1,370 ------ 3,032
PHILIPPINES -- 1,543 ---- 1,246------- 2,789
ROW --------- 14,207 --- 12,643------ 26,850
TOTAL ------- 35,283 --- 35,204------ 70,487

ROW-M-P ----- 17,412--- 15,259 ------ 32,671

It only gets worse if the lag is made 9 months.

County/Grp - Q2-4 2010 -- Q1 2011 -- Rolling Yr
ROW-M-P ------- 30,751 ---- 8,031 ------ 38,782

At the moment, I can't understand why Trackitt would not reflect such high numbers. Maybe I am missing something.

[qesehmk]

Spec
Trackitt is in line with this trend in its PERM tracker.
Teddy keeps looking at the 485 tracker which shows YoY reduction in approvals. Teddy correct me if i am wrong.

I am feeling that with this trend EB2 ROW will yield the same numbers as last year (do you remember what that was?).

So if there were to be any upside to last year it must come from EB1. Of that 12K almost 6-7K will go towards covering hte quota reduction this year. But that still leaves 5K extra compared to last years SOFAD. Last year total NET SOFAD to EB2IC was 27K? Is that right? So this year it will be 33K ... which barely brings it to Mar 2007. Again .... I may be off by a month here and there.

Q,
At the moment, I can't understand why Trackitt would not reflect such high numbers. Maybe I am missing something.

[Spectator]

Spec
Trackitt is in line with this trend in its PERM tracker.
Teddy keeps looking at the 485 tracker which shows YoY reduction in approvals. Teddy correct me if i am wrong.

I am feeling that with this trend EB2 ROW will yield the same numbers as last year (do you remember what that was?).

So if there were to be any upside to last year it must come from EB1. Of that 12K almost 6-7K will go towards covering hte quota reduction this year. But that still leaves 5K extra compared to last years SOFAD. Last year total NET SOFAD to EB2IC was 27K? Is that right? So this year it will be 33K ... which barely brings it to Mar 2007. Again .... I may be off by a month here and there.

Spillover to IC last year was 20,434.
7% was 3,016, so SOFAD was 26,466

Last year :
ROW = 24,427
Mexico = 817
Philippines = 2,162
Total = 27,406

ROW-M-P allocation was 43,088-6,032 = 37,056 so FA from ROW-M-P was 9,650, made up of:

ROW - 6,597
Mexico - 2,199
Philippines - 854
Total - 9,650

This year, of course, 7% is 2,803 and the ROW-M-P allocation is 34,434.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec.

So lets hope ROW consumption this year for EB2 stays in line with last year or less PLUS EB1 provides the upside that CO has indicated is there.

Those two together will push us around the border of Q1/Q2.

Spillover to IC last year was 20,434.
7% was 3,016, so SOFAD was 26,466

Last year :
ROW = 24,427
Mexico = 817
Philippines = 2,162
Total = 27,406

ROW-M-P allocation was 43,088-6,032 = 37,056 so FA from ROW-M-P was 9,650, made up of:

ROW - 6,597
Mexico - 2,199
Philippines - 854
Total - 9,650

This year, of course, 7% is 2,803 and the ROW-M-P allocation is 34,434.

[gcwait2007]

Q/ Spec & Others,

So the SOFAD summation on conservative basis is as follows:

EB1 will provide minimum 12K

EB2 ROW-M-P will provide 34,434 - 27,406 =7028 ~ 7K

EB5 will provide 7854-1880 = 5974 ~ 6K

Total SOFAD on conservative basis = 25K.

I am not really happy to calculate this way

There are upgrades and then PWMB.

However I am prepared to accept whatever I cannot change and destiny happens...

[qesehmk]

Here is 1 thing that may make you a bit happier. There is almost 6K EB2IC quota missing from your numbers. So the SOFAD will be 30-31K.

Q/ Spec & Others,

So the SOFAD summation on conservative basis is as follows:

EB1 will provide minimum 12K

EB2 ROW-M-P will provide 34,434 - 27,406 =7028 ~ 7K

EB5 will provide 7854-1880 = 5974 ~ 6K

Total SOFAD on conservative basis = 25K.

I am not really happy to calculate this way

There are upgrades and then PWMB.

However I am prepared to accept whatever I cannot change and destiny happens...

[soggadu]

Here is 1 thing that may make you a bit happier. There is almost 6K EB2IC quota missing from your numbers. So the SOFAD will be 30-31K.

Guru's,

Why are the predictions so gloomy....

I think EB1 is going to give us around 24K (optimistic) and around 20K realistic SOFAD right...

And from specs numbers there is a decrease of 4K for EB2 ROW from last year so that means 9K + 4K = 13K from Eb2 ROW

EB4/5 will be same/better than last year which adds another 7-8K
total is around 20+13+7= 40K spill over right.... oh ya 6K from IC which makes it even sweet 46K ....

[anuran]

That is it, soggadu. I am really betting on EB1 to be >20k. We will get a 35k SO. I know Q and other are being conservative especially after seeing the perm data. But that is only going to affect after May'07. Therefore we will make it to April'07. Initially I wanted it to be August'07. Well April is fair enough and it is a girl's name.

[soggadu]

That is it, soggadu. I am really betting on EB1 to be >20k. We will get a 35k SO. I know Q and other are being conservative especially after seeing the perm data. But that is only going to affect after May'07. Therefore we will make it to April'07. Initially I wanted it to be August'07. Well April is fair enough and it is a girl's name.

thats so true... when u compared april with girl... i remembered a friend of mine emailed me when huricane rita was hitting houston( it was just after katrina..i used to live there then) that... dude run from houston, when they say rita is coming...dont stay there thinking a new girl is visiting town... it was funny at that time during the choatic journey of 13 hrs from houston to austin ( 140 odd miles)....

anyway... i positively feel that the dates are going to hit Dec 07 and then retrogress... now dont jump on me... its my feeling and i know i dont hv numbers to prove... hope for the best and leave the rest... live life king size... hope we all have a great friday....

[Spectator]

For the sale of completeness, here is the analysis of the PWD data based on the minimum education and experience required.


Min Education ----------------- No. ---- % --- % Education
EB2
Doctorate(PhD) -------------- 1,828 --- 3.94% ---- 5.56%
Master's ------------------- 19,254 -- 41.54% --- 58.56%
Bachelor's + 5 -------------- 9,935 -- 21.43% --- 30.22%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) - 1,862 --- 4.02% ---- 5.66%
EB2Total ------------------- 32,879 -- 70.93% -- 100.00%

EB3
Bachelor's ------------------ 8,742 -- 18.86% --- 64.89%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) --- 162 --- 0.35% ---- 1.20%
Associate's ------------------- 636 --- 1.37% ---- 4.72%
High School/GED --------------- 714 --- 1.54% ---- 5.30%
None ------------------------ 3,219 --- 6.94% --- 23.89%
EB3 Total ------------------ 13,473 -- 29.07% -- 100.00%

Grand Total---------------- 46,352 - 100.00%

I don't think it tells us anything new. The overall % split between EB2 and EB3 has remained about the same over the last year.

As we have discussed earlier, different Countries have different individual EB2/EB3 splits, ranging from probably India having most EB2 to Mexico having least. Country data is not part of the PWD data.

Since we don't know these, the utility of the data is limited.

[anuran]

soggadu: I am not sure about retrogression in an already retrogressed category. But there is a good chance that CIS might be surprised by a huge influx of applicants, that the dates might remain static for a long time. By definition, remaining static is also retrogression because time stops for none.

[kd2008]

Another thing to remember about PERM Q2 2011 data is that there were no approvals from March in that data. DOL has just not begun to process March applications after a hiatus of nearly 7 weeks. If you look at trackitt, the number of applications jump massively in March. Sorry make it so dreadful. But this is just the reality.

[Spectator]

Another thing to remember about PERM Q2 2011 data is that there were no approvals from March in that data. DOL has just not begun to process March applications after a hiatus of nearly 7 weeks. If you look at trackitt, the number of applications jump massively in March. Sorry make it so dreadful. But this is just the reality.

kd2008,

That is a good point, so I checked and you are correct. To put some figures to your thoughts, the following are Certifications in Q2 only. December 2010 received a further 965 Certifications in Q1 for a total of exactly 5,000. There is always something of a lag, but it does appear to be somewhat larger this time.


PD ------------ No. ---- %
Dec 2010 ---- 4,035 -- 61.38%
Jan 2011 ---- 4,029 -- 56.68%
Feb 2011 ---- 2,988 -- 42.04%
Mar 2011 ------- 91 --- 1.28%
Grand Total - 7,108 - 100.00%

Edit: Having checked back further, it appears that the number of December 2010 applications Certified in Q1 was the exception, rather than the rule. It probably reflects just how quickly PERM was being approved then. As processing times have returned to something more normal (although still fairly quick), the norm has been resumed, where very few last month submissions are also Certified in the same quarter.

[veni001]

kd2008,

That is a good point, so I checked and you are correct. To put some figures to your thoughts, the following are Certifications in Q2 only. December 2010 received a further 965 Certifications in Q1 for a total of exactly 5,000. There is always something of a lag, but it does appear to be somewhat larger this time.


PD ------------ No. ---- %
Dec 2010 ---- 4,035 -- 61.38%
Jan 2011 ---- 4,029 -- 56.68%
Feb 2011 ---- 2,988 -- 42.04%
Mar 2011 ------- 91 --- 1.28%
Grand Total - 7,108 - 100.00%

Edit: Having checked back further, it appears that the number of December 2010 applications Certified in Q1 was the exception, rather than the rule. It probably reflects just how quickly PERM was being approved then. As processing times have returned to something more normal (although still fairly quick), the norm has been resumed, where very few last month submissions are also Certified in the same quarter.

Spec,
Not sure why it is different here is my breakdown from FY 2011 Q2 Data?

- Month -- ROW(2&3) ---EBI(2&3) ---EBC(2&3) --Monthly Total-- i140 Receipts
Oct-10 ----1,940 ------2,136 ---------231 ---------4,307 -------7,442
Nov-10 ----2,796 ------3,045 ---------350 ---------6,191 -------7,839
Dec-10 ----3,316 ------4,118 ---------423 ---------7,857 -------5,161
Jan-11 ----2,761 ------3,333 ---------447 ---------6,541 -------6,056
Feb-11 ----2,546 ------3,268 ---------383 ---------6,197 -------6,859
Mar-11 ----1,921 ------1,954 ---------279 ---------4,154 -------6,672(Estimated)
Total ----15,280 -----17,854 -------2,113 --------35,274 ------40,029

P.S: I have updated table in my previous post.

[gcwait2007]

Here is 1 thing that may make you a bit happier. There is almost 6K EB2IC quota missing from your numbers. So the SOFAD will be 30-31K.

Thank you, Q.


Today's wisdom: Data is like mashed potato. If you make flat of mashed potato, it is called Burger. If you make globe of it, it is called Bonda

In tamil language: Thatti potta vadai, orutti potta bonda

[veni001]

Spec,
Not sure why it is different here is my breakdown from FY 2011 Q2 Data?
-------
-------

Spec,kd2008,
Didn't read it correct first time, your post is based on PD Month and mine is monthly adjudications!

[gcwait2007]

Q/ Spec & Others,

So the SOFAD summation on conservative basis is as follows:

EB1 will provide minimum 12K

EB2 ROW-M-P will provide 34,434 - 27,406 =7028 ~ 7K

EB5 will provide 7854-1880 = 5974 ~ 6K

Total SOFAD on conservative basis = 25K.

I am not really happy to calculate this way

There are upgrades and then PWMB.

However I am prepared to accept whatever I cannot change and destiny happens...

Guru's,

Why are the predictions so gloomy....

I think EB1 is going to give us around 24K (optimistic) and around 20K realistic SOFAD right...

And from specs numbers there is a decrease of 4K for EB2 ROW from last year so that means 9K + 4K = 13K from Eb2 ROW

EB4/5 will be same/better than last year which adds another 7-8K
total is around 20+13+7= 40K spill over right.... oh ya 6K from IC which makes it even sweet 46K ....

Every thing is in mind.

I just expressed the unconscious fears in my mind at that time.

Probably I was not in good mood at that time.

Sorry about that...

Thanks,
gcw07