EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Spec regarding your observation about IVAMS data ... pls remember it excludes backlogged countries. So the data is not quite useful.

Q,

I don't quite understand that comment.

The IVAMS data is available for all groupings: ROW, China, India, Mexico, Philippines and Dominican Republic. You just need to scroll down the document for the individual reports.

I am not in the US right now and don't have access to my data at the moment, nor am I logging in very much.

Regardless, I think it would only confirm the figures rather than change them (plus it is a pain to import them via OCR from the PDF!).

Nice to see you back.

[qesehmk]

Spec, Thanks. I had only read the heading!! Thanks. IVAM data still has serious flaw. It only talks about "Documentarily Qualified" candidates. Secondly it has 138K cases whereas 485 inventory has 114K and CP inventory has 103K. So where are the 79K cases? Are those not yet "Documentarily Qualified" cases?

I was so surprised to see how closely the IVAMS data matches with the model we have on first page of the thread? However the fact that 79K cases can't be accounted for in IVAMS is not comforting.

Q,

The IVAMS data is available for all groupings: ROW, China, India, Mexico, Philippines and Dominican Republic. You just need to scroll down the document for the individual reports.

[qesehmk]

Teddy, you are right. Trackitt is not good for EB1 analysis. For EB2 however it is very good. And I suppose for EB3 as well.

As per porting ... people may not update their trackitt case entirely. They can simply change EB3 to EB2. However as we go ahead.. 4-5 months later we will have a good hang as per how big porting is. But the truth is porting will hold EB2 down. And no complaints about that. Just that it is that way.

Thanks Q; I researched little bit further into this. I probably added an additional filter to say that the filing date is in 2009 and 2010. This leaves me with 7 cases so the remaining ones are folks who had a delayed approval due to RFE's or other reasons. Now if we dwell further into these 7 cases 3 of them are for dependants some with pretty old PD's. There is however 1 case which shows approved as EB3 but is EB2 (PD 2003 it’s in the comments. Now if we extrapolate this to say 6 it will still fit onto the 20% range so your old estimate looks good. Also good to note that after the NVC analysis your prediction for EB2 moved ahead by a month. I do agree that we should keep a close watch on PD porting; recently I read a case wherein the I140 was approved in 2 days. Also note that there are a significant number of Eb2 ROW approvals on Trackitt while very few EB1's still early days though, however I feel that that Trackitt EB1 representation is not good.

[Pundit Arjun]

Q,
I read the Thread header (the first post) and it did explain a lot of things that I was not aware of earlier.
My Priority date is October 10th, 2009[EB2-I]. Looking at the post header (where we believe that EB2-I will be at Mar-2007 by Sept 2011) and the october 2010 pending 485 inventory, it looks like that there will be only about 11000 pending 485 applications (with 4-5K for Porting).

Hence can i assume that I will be able to file my 485 by Sept2012 (or) When do you think I can expect to be greened or atleast get EAD?

Thanks in advance,
Arjun

[qesehmk]

Pundit,
Welcome to forum. I think although your date seems long. You should be able to get GC in less than 3 years. The reason being that the demand is not that high post 07 for all of EB2. The risk although is one that of EB3 porting. If those people start converting in droves then its going to be quite some wait for you. As of now the chances are high that you get a GC in 3 years. EAD should be another 1 or 2 years. First window of opportunity Jun-Sep 2011 Second one is one year later.

Q,
I read the Thread header (the first post) and it did explain a lot of things that I was not aware of earlier.
My Priority date is October 10th, 2009[EB2-I]. Looking at the post header (where we believe that EB2-I will be at Mar-2007 by Sept 2011) and the october 2010 pending 485 inventory, it looks like that there will be only about 11000 pending 485 applications (with 4-5K for Porting).

Hence can i assume that I will be able to file my 485 by Sept2012 (or) When do you think I can expect to be greened or atleast get EAD?

Thanks in advance,
Arjun

[Pundit Arjun]

Thanks for the reply, Q. Have been following you from IV .

On what basis, are you saying that I can expect to get an EAD within the next 1-2 years ? I am not questioning you but am curious to know the possibility.
Is it because of a Bill or hope for any immigration reform ?

Thanks in advance.

[dec_01_2006]

Hey Q,

I have been following your thread for the past 3-4 months on IV before you moved here. I appreciate the way you bring sanity in the otherwise Black Box world of GC processing timelines. My priority date is Dec 1st 2006. There was a small probability of the date becoming in Sept 2010; however that did not happen. On a conservative note what the chances of me getting greened by Sept 2011. Is there a chance I can be greened by July, Aug?

Regards,
S

[qesehmk]

Pundit,

Its ok to question. Otherwise how will we learn? The reason you may be eligible to file for an EAD in 1 (50% probability) or 2 years (99%) is because EB2 pipeline should be either close to being cleared by Sep 2011 or will be cleared by 2012. Besides USCIS needs to work to justify jobs. So they will want to admit new 485 cases. The question is whether they will flood all in or will keep moving the date 3-4 months at a time. Theoretically they can move dates 3-4 months at a time. But that's a risky strategy because if SOFAD comes then USCIS need to have a solid pipeline to apply it against (unless of course they are willing to let visas go waste or spill over to EB3). Thats why most likely they will replenish teh pipeline in wholesale! The question is when will they choose to do it? What is their threshold? If their threshold is 6-10K then it could happen in sep 11. If their threshold is much less then it could happen sep 12. But I don't see any EB2 w PD 2007 Jun or earlier after sep 12.

Thanks for the reply, Q. Have been following you from IV .

On what basis, are you saying that I can expect to get an EAD within the next 1-2 years ? I am not questioning you but am curious to know the possibility.
Is it because of a Bill or hope for any immigration reform ?

Thanks in advance.

[qesehmk]

I think it should be 100% by August.

Hey Q,

I have been following your thread for the past 3-4 months on IV before you moved here. I appreciate the way you bring sanity in the otherwise Black Box world of GC processing timelines. My priority date is Dec 1st 2006. There was a small probability of the date becoming in Sept 2010; however that did not happen. On a conservative note what the chances of me getting greened by Sept 2011. Is there a chance I can be greened by July, Aug?

Regards,
S

[TeddyKoochu]

Pundit,
Welcome to forum. I think although your date seems long. You should be able to get GC in less than 3 years. The reason being that the demand is not that high post 07 for all of EB2. The risk although is one that of EB3 porting. If those people start converting in droves then its going to be quite some wait for you. As of now the chances are high that you get a GC in 3 years. EAD should be another 1 or 2 years. First window of opportunity Jun-Sep 2011 Second one is one year later.

Q / Arjun, Following are my thoughts. Arjun's PD is Oct 2009. Here are some facts that I have read over from some of the places.

- There have been layoffs at the agencies - contractors. The revenue idea though is correct may not fly in the current environment.
- There was some talk of developing a system that could calculate numbers based on I140 filings so that they could move the dates at a predictable manner based on this. This is supposed to go live by 2012.
- IMHO there are very little chances of the entire backlog prior to Jul 2007 being cleared by Sep 2011, we will most likely be confined to the 1st quarter of 2007 assuming no FB, FB can really change the equation.
- There seems to be no sign of quarterly spillover and the current 485 approval processing time is 6 months. So theoretically 50% of those who say file in Jul of a yr may see approvals by Sep, the rest of the half maybe unlucky and may have to wait an extra year.
Now the demand between Jul 2007 and Oct 2009 (Arjun's PD) is atleast going to be 50K (I+C) I assume 50% of this comes from the remainder of 2007 and the rest of it comes from 2008 and 2009.
With 30K SOFAD a year and with everything holding and no visa's going to EB3 ROW by default I believe even EAD is 3 years away i.e. 2013. Hopefully if things are better by that time GC may come sooner rather than the extra year.

[qesehmk]

(Going forward) .... since EB2 ROW backlog is less we can definitely expect to see higher SOFAD this year from EB2 ROW, however 2 factors will just counteract that a) NO FB that means -6500 b) Higher PD porting means -5000.

I agree w both A and B.

Now the demand between Jul 2007 and Oct 2009 (Arjun's PD) is atleast going to be 50K (I+C) I assume 50% of this comes from the remainder of 2007 and the rest of it comes from 2008 and 2009.
With 30K SOFAD a year and with everything holding and no visa's going to EB3 ROW by default I believe even EAD is 3 years away i.e. 2013. Hopefully if things are better by that time GC may come sooner rather than the extra year.

Teddy I think your 50K would be right overall. But ROW is already out of that. So EB2IC is about 33K between 08-10. Add 33K to 45-55K current backlog. That 88K.
That just satisfies to be fulfilled through 30K SOFAD per year.

[formailer]

Hi Friends,

I enjoyed reading the analysis and counter-analysis on IV.
Good to see the effort. I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank you.

How can the analysis be tied to priority dates. Here is the reason I'm asking this question . there are a lot of people who may not be very familiar with the calculation.

My PD is EB2I - dec-1-2006 I assume it will take atleast a year to get to this point. Is my understanding correct

[formailer]

I was looking at pending I-485 report for EB2

I-485
May 1058
June 1629
July 1494
Aug 1644
Sept 1683
Oct 1703
Nov 1691
Dec 1865
EB3 to EB2 5000
Total: 17767

Does this mean that from May - Dec there are 17 K applicant waiting for VISA

[gcseeker]

First of all big thanks to the intiators for moving this thread to a new independent site. This helps immensely for all of those of us stuck in the big wait for GC.

I just wanted to point a recent article straight from the horses mouth itself proving Porting is happening in a very big way. I am pretty sure most of you must have seen this article already.

http://www.laborimmigration.com/2010...les-oppenheim/

"Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month."

"EB-2 India. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a week or so) in the short-term. This is mainly caused by the fact that many EB-3 India applicants (there are approximately 60,000 EB-3 India pending cases) are “porting” their priority dates into the EB-2 India category and are thus taking visa numbers."



I would almost go on a rant against EB3 porting but it would only serve to distract the others from the wonderful calculations and predictions being done here. There will always be others who will cut corners and jump through the lines,it is fine if they are genuine EB3 cases waiting since 2003 ...but often it is something else.

Anywaz I sadly feel EB2 will not move much even by end of next year.

Gcseeker

Q, I think though the figure of 50K matched its coincidental we are saying different things. The Current I/C demand based on the Inventory and demand data is ~ 35K. This is the pre Aug 2007 demand.
Now we have PWMB, Porting and new demand post Aug 2007 for EB2 I/C will be atleast 50K. Most of it will be pre 2008 demand ~ 25K of it 2007 is the big year. I feel that the total figure just for I/C till say Jan 2010 is in the 90K range for EB2 I/C, note most of the people atleast 80% form I/C are filing EB2 these days. With 90K to cross at ~ 30K a year though this could be much more will take 3 years. It may well take people like me (Jul 07) and Leo (Jun 07) who are PWMB's 2 years to even get EAD. SOFAD more than 30K a year without any FB component looks a little tough though is not impossible. Please guide.

[TeddyKoochu]

Month-Year India China PD Porting PWMB CP +
Local Office Total
Monthly Cumulative
Sum
Offset 1800 200 0 0 0 2000 2000
May-06 1058 445 500 100 100 2203 4203
Jun-06 1629 733 500 100 100 3062 7265
Jul-06 1494 620 500 100 100 2814 10079
Aug-06 1644 694 500 100 100 3038 13117
Sep-06 1683 764 500 100 100 3147 16264
Oct-06 1703 745 500 100 100 3148 19412
Nov-06 1691 673 500 100 100 3064 22476
Dec-06 1865 768 500 200 100 3433 25909
Jan-07 1505 666 500 200 100 2971 28880
Feb-07 1431 594 500 200 100 2825 31705
Mar-07 1353 684 500 200 100 2837 34542
Apr-07 1370 624 500 200 100 2794 37336
May-07 1123 524 500 500 100 2747 40083
Jun-07 1307 574 500 1500 100 3981 44064
Jul-07 1518 1754 500 1500 100 5372 49436
Aug-07 202 294 500 1500 100 2596 52032

In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Oct 2010 Inventory, I have assumed a starting offset of 2000 as there were cases which did not see approval last year even though they were current. PD porting I assume that will be added ~500 when that month becomes current from the October inventory. I arrived at 500 as last year the effective porting was ~3K so 500 PM represents a higher rate. PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. The value starts with 100, then goes to 200 then 500 and then 1500 these figures are from my gut feeling but in approximation I believe that they should hold. The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point. Now ~ 20K SOFAD will just take us to Nov 2006 (I deduct 6.5K the FB contribution) for last year. While ~37K SOFAD helps us to clear Apr 2007 refer calculation below with approximations and assumptions.
Some known facts are a) Total SOFAD - 26.5K (AILA Report). b) EB5 - 7.5K From reliable published reports. c) India & China Annual Cap - 6K.
Hence SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 = 26.5 - 7.5 - 6 = 13K.
(Probably 10K came from EB2 ROW and 3.5K came from EB1 this is my guess).
Adjustment for NO FB this Year = -6.5K.
Nett SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 without FB would be 13K - 6.5K = 6.5K
Now lets analyze on Trackitt to see the trend for October.
Year 2010 –
EB1-A – 6 EB1-B – 5 EB1-C – 4 Total - 15
EB2 ROW - 60
Year 2009
EB1-A – 26 EB1-B – 44 EB1-C – 38 Total - 88
EB2 ROW - 110

The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-29625 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 40320 - 6000 - 10000 = 24320.
Now the October trend shows that the consumption is 60 * 24320 / 110 ~ 13K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 13K ~ 21K.
EB5 SOFAD I expect will decline from 7K to 5K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 21 + 5 = 37K.
Ideally with this we should be able to cross April 2007 with this, refer to the extrapolated inventory. I believe EB1 will really hold the key along with any good news on FB.

[qesehmk]

Leo

I would disagree on 90-95% EB3 porting being genuine cases,on the contrary 30-40% might be genuine. USCIS did not bother to close many major loopholes before the fiasco of 2007.

Example .Pre Substituted Labour abuse which was rampant at that time.Many who came fresh off the boat bought pre approved labours with PD dates as old as 2001 in 2007 itself .

Anywaz you are right on one point though. It is an immense source of income for both AILA and USCIS. Porting costs upto 5000-8000 per app.

It is just the way this system is built . EB3 porting is happening big time and will weight down EB2 dates for atleast 2 yrs .

gcseeker, i think the picture is not as good as we would like but certainly not as bad as we fear. The dates will not be held by by 2 years because of porting. Porting last year was 2-4K max. So Next year we could expect it to double at the most. That is equivalent to 2-3 months of EB2I movement.

[qesehmk]

Teddy I agree w your SOFAD. But not sure you are accounting for porting and CP.

Month-Year India China PD Porting PWMB CP +
Local Office Total
Monthly Cumulative
Sum
Offset 1800 200 0 0 0 2000 2000
May-06 1058 445 500 100 100 2203 4203
Jun-06 1629 733 500 100 100 3062 7265
Jul-06 1494 620 500 100 100 2814 10079
Aug-06 1644 694 500 100 100 3038 13117
Sep-06 1683 764 500 100 100 3147 16264
Oct-06 1703 745 500 100 100 3148 19412
Nov-06 1691 673 500 100 100 3064 22476
Dec-06 1865 768 500 200 100 3433 25909
Jan-07 1505 666 500 200 100 2971 28880
Feb-07 1431 594 500 200 100 2825 31705
Mar-07 1353 684 500 200 100 2837 34542
Apr-07 1370 624 500 200 100 2794 37336
May-07 1123 524 500 500 100 2747 40083
Jun-07 1307 574 500 1500 100 3981 44064
Jul-07 1518 1754 500 1500 100 5372 49436
Aug-07 202 294 500 1500 100 2596 52032

In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Oct 2010 Inventory, I have assumed a starting offset of 2000 as there were cases which did not see approval last year even though they were current. PD porting I assume that will be added ~500 when that month becomes current from the October inventory. I arrived at 500 as last year the effective porting was ~3K so 500 PM represents a higher rate. PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. The value starts with 100, then goes to 200 then 500 and then 1500 these figures are from my gut feeling but in approximation I believe that they should hold. The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point. Now ~ 20K SOFAD will just take us to Nov 2006 (I deduct 6.5K the FB contribution) for last year. While ~37K SOFAD helps us to clear Apr 2007 refer calculation below with approximations and assumptions.
Some known facts are a) Total SOFAD - 26.5K (AILA Report). b) EB5 - 7.5K From reliable published reports. c) India & China Annual Cap - 6K.
Hence SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 = 26.5 - 7.5 - 6 = 13K.
(Probably 10K came from EB2 ROW and 3.5K came from EB1 this is my guess).
Adjustment for NO FB this Year = -6.5K.
Nett SOFAD from EB2 ROW and EB1 without FB would be 13K - 6.5K = 6.5K
Now lets analyze on Trackitt to see the trend for October.
Year 2010 –
EB1-A – 6 EB1-B – 5 EB1-C – 4 Total - 15
EB2 ROW - 60
Year 2009
EB1-A – 26 EB1-B – 44 EB1-C – 38 Total - 88
EB2 ROW - 110

The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-29625 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 40320 - 6000 - 10000 = 24320.
Now the October trend shows that the consumption is 60 * 24320 / 110 ~ 13K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 13K ~ 21K.
EB5 SOFAD I expect will decline from 7K to 5K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 21 + 5 = 37K.
Ideally with this we should be able to cross April 2007 with this, refer to the extrapolated inventory. I believe EB1 will really hold the key along with any good news on FB.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy I agree w your SOFAD. But not sure you are accounting for porting and CP.

Q, I have assumed porting @500 PM and CP @100 PM refer to the table. Now if we are actually able to move from May 2006 to Apr 2007 this would make new effective porting 6000 (Not in inventory and brand new) and CP 1200 (Kind of in line with the earlier discussions) for the year. Looks like EB1 will hold the key but on Trackitt there seems to be a huge decline in EB1 partly the volume is not so high the Oct - Oct compare for 2009 and 2010 shows a 6 fold decrease, however in my calculations I have only suggested a 25% decrease to remain conservative this is only 1/24th, I feel certain that there will be a decrease though. The Trackitt data may not be great but I certainly believe that the decrease will be there and will be largely in EB1C, the research based EB1A and B won't be impacted that much.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Why are you not assuming CP at 15% (approx 6K)?

Q, I have assumed porting @500 PM and CP @100 PM refer to the table. Now if we are actually able to move from May 2006 to Apr 2007 this would make new effective porting 6000 (Not in inventory and brand new) and CP 1200 (Kind of in line with the earlier discussions) for the year. Looks like EB1 will hold the key but on Trackitt there seems to be a huge decline in EB1 partly the volume is not so high the Oct - Oct compare for 2009 and 2010 shows a 6 fold decrease, however in my calculations I have only suggested a 25% decrease to remain conservative this is only 1/24th, I feel certain that there will be a decrease though. The Trackitt data may not be great but I certainly believe that the decrease will be there and will be largely in EB1C, the research based EB1A and B won't be impacted that much.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Why are you not assuming CP at 15% (approx 6K)?

Refer post # 102 by our good friend spectator & post # 98, I remember your assumption was 6K.

For EB2-I the normal CP run rate is around 1%, so the 2,996 NVC cases represents 299,600 total cases.
The CP may be overall higher for EB3 due to 245I issue and that may have brought it to 15% in some years. ON IV there was a poll which should 500 approvals and only 3 were CP, CP folks maybe less likely to track though. I feel that CP should really be very less for EB2 I/C like 1200 Per year, 6K may be too high.

[qesehmk]

Agree. Especially true now that ROW is all clear so the only CP that is there is mostly IC.

Refer post # 102 by our good friend spectator & post # 98, I remember your assumption was 6K.

For EB2-I the normal CP run rate is around 1%, so the 2,996 NVC cases represents 299,600 total cases.
The CP may be overall higher for EB3 due to 245I issue and that may have brought it to 15% in some years. ON IV there was a poll which should 500 approvals and only 3 were CP, CP folks maybe less likely to track though. I feel that CP should really be very less for EB2 I/C like 1200 Per year, 6K may be too high.

[qesehmk]

Guys its been one month we launched this site. We have 230 members as of yesterday! As we have said many times before .... the purpose of this wokr we are doing here is really to help people understand REALISTICALLY how much time they need to wait before they can get a GC - so that they can plan their lives better. That's all what we are doing here. Hope this is helping at least some of you. Good luck and best wishes!

[Pundit Arjun]

Hi Q,

Glad to be one of the 230 members. Appreciate the work you and other members are doing. Helps a ton.
Good luck to all the members and best wishes.

~ Pundit

[bieber]

Q

i registered couple of weeks ago but never posted, thank u for the site
always followed the thread in immigrationvoice, you/teddy and others did awesome job.

[casantino]

Hi,

I joined a few weeks ago and i must say i came to the right place. This is a fantastic thread. I would recommend including the potential impact of immigration reform initiatives discussed in DC, such as dream act, CIR etc. Also, would appreciate if someone could provide the estimated difference between I-485 filed till July 2007 and I-485 filed after that per year. I am assuming a sharp drop in filings in 2008 and 2009 due to the slow economy.

Thanks.