EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.

Q,
Agree, even if they move dates in the last month(sept) of FY they can use-up all SOFAD!

[veni001]

Shumack

I agree w Veni. In addition to what he (sorry if wrong :-) ) said, I would also add following: Since the preadj number is so high, the chance that any visas will be wasted is ZERO.

Q,
You are correct with this one too.

[qesehmk]

LoL !!! You never know!

Q,
You are correct with this one too.

[veni001]

Only two EB2I approvals on the "other" site since April 01, 2011.

[nuvikas]

Only two EB2I approvals on the "other" site since April 01, 2011.

What other site? Q started this forum because there were restrictions in immigrationvoice.org to refer other sites. There are no such restrictions here. Please disclose the source.

[nayekal]

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.

[veni001]

What other site? Q started this forum because there were restrictions in immigrationvoice.org to refer other sites. There are no such restrictions here. Please disclose the source.

Nuvikas,
I am referring to trackitt.

[qesehmk]

Nayekal

I see it only as a rumour and don't see facts and analysis behind what is being said here. So we probably should ignore it.

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.

Nuvikas,
I am referring to trackitt.

All ... yep ! We don't just tolerate references but we encourage them. It is important that credit to the source of information must be attributed in the right manner.

[Gclongwait]

04/12/2011: Importance of Forthcoming Release of EB-485 Inventory Statistics in April 2011 Relating to Use of 12,000 EB-2 Spill-Over Numbers

* There was an informal analysis of the EB-2 inventory by an immigration attorney, Jay Solomon. According to his analysis, there are approximately 17,400 EB-2 cases that have either been filed and expected to be filed and most of these cases are assumedly filed during the July 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco period, out of the which about 13,200 numbers were filed by Indian nationals according to his report. If this analysis is correct, those who will use the spill-over EB-2 visa numbers within this fiscal year are those with priority dates of 2006 and not beyond. Additionally, the analysis also shows that approximately 75% of the spill-over numbers may be used by the Indian EB-2s. Should the foregoing information is correct, the EB-2 visa numbers for India and China may not move beyond 2006 within this fiscal year which ends on September 30, 2011, four months from May 2011 Visa Bulletin. Very discouraging data, indeed.
* The soon-to-be released April 2011 EB-485 inventory statistics are important in that the data will show a clear picture of the future for these agonizing Indian EB-2 professionals. Please stay tuned.

I couldn't understand what this lawyer is talking about, but if this is true, then it looks really bad for EB2 folks for Jan 2007 and beyond.
If it is some thing featured in http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html then it is some thing, we cannot take it easy.

Sorry, did not understand the big deal about this. They seem to be assuming that 12000 will be the total spillover for the fiscal year. If thats the case then they are probably right but we know this is not true. Its probably going to be 30000+.

[raj888]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.c...74/index5.html

[veni001]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.c...74/index5.html

Looks like lot of unknown unknowns!! limiting VISA Spillover and Fall Across?

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Welcome. Good post.

This explains in very easy terms why SOFAD is primarily applied in Q4 and why we see significant date movements in Q4 (only).

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.c...74/index5.html

[leo07]

I think CIS+DOS together have lot less unknowns now than a year ago.Pressure/lobbying from AILA to hold-on to EB2 movements until last quarter, combined with some 'unknown' w.r.t upgrades is the cause for sluggish EB2 movements.

DOS wants to go very conservatively so as to avoid any potential law-suits or infamous publicity for not allocating a well deserved EB2-ROW or EB3-EB2 upgrade a visa, by aggressively moving dates.

I do believe the numbers are still the same, may be a grand more on the upgrades side, but the dates will move nevertheless by last quarter.

Looks like lot of unknown unknowns!! limiting VISA Spillover and Fall Across?

[anuran]

IN addition Ron's views can also be construed as there is going to be very little movement of dates in June bulletin. I am optimistically looking at between 2 to 7 weeks. Would be glad if they do another 7.

[leo07]

Q, I don't think that upper-limit applies to spillovers. If that's the case there's no real definition of quarterly Spillover, which they say they do all the time.( we all know they don't ). my point is more on the lingo of quarterly spill-over. If that definition/lingo exists, it means the limit doesn't?

Thanks. Welcome. Good post.

This explains in very easy terms why SOFAD is primarily applied in Q4 and why we see significant date movements in Q4 (only).

[qesehmk]

Agree that spillovers don't take place. However, spillovers can still happen within the 30% limit (if they chose to do it). Essentially one could (theoretically) applied spillover till you hit 30% ceiling.

p.s. - I do not know whether SPILLOVERs are mandatory or nice-to-haves from legal perspective. Would be interesting if anybody can dig the information.

Q, I don't think that upper-limit applies to spillovers. If that's the case there's no real definition of quarterly Spillover, which they say they do all the time.( we all know they don't ). my point is more on the lingo of quarterly spill-over. If that definition/lingo exists, it means the limit doesn't?

[donvar]

Q

Pretty good catch .Yup definetly the dates would have retrogressed .
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It might not continue to be the same if EB2 moves rapidly. USCIS seems to be testing the waters to get an idea for this.

Not necessarily that since the dates have not retrogressed, porting cases are less than or equal to India's annual quota. They may not have retrogressed the dates and left it like that hoping that 12K will remove the need to move the dates back. Retrogressing the dates reflect badly on their performance.

In the normal cases spillover was done in the last quarter, but now they talked about it in June means that
1) either there are quite lot of porting cases and so they want to do a mid year spillover (12K) to not to retrogress the dates (purely for their performance reason as retrogressing dates reflect badly on them)
OR
2) They are worried that they will not be able to allocate the (12K++ EB1) visas in the last quarter.

Otherwise they would not have talked about mid year (12K) spillover in June. Also their statement "very high porting" means the first case.

I believe porting is in the range of 10,000 K/pa. I am sure Q must have done an analysis on the Perm data to gauge the porting because that it the only way we can get an idea of that, IF WE CAN.

Q

It might be a sign of behavioral psychology where people with EB3 dates close to 2003 seem to believe they will get the gc within a couple of years and do not want to spend the 10,000 for porting.....

My assumption is that more cases from 2006 and beyond simply mean that brisk desi consultancy money for porting business from people who are already with Consultants or came through consultants, people from earlier years are reluctant to port as they are settled down, they know it will take them years to get GC even with their 2003 or 2004 PDs.

[donvar]

Q

I have not followed your analysis thoroughly but cannot we get an general idea about the porting from the Perm data for last year. Something like surge in EB2 India applications in the last year.
I will just say EB2 India only because genuine porting (people changing the Job for EB2 position) is very less. Well of course people can port for a future job as well.

[qesehmk]

Don

A number of people on this forum have done good calculations and come to conclusion that porting is between 4-6K in total (i.e. for all possible dates). You can find it in the prior pages (but i admit its a pain to go back 46 pages!!).

And yes that analysis is based on trackitt and labor data.

Q

I have not followed your analysis thoroughly but cannot we get an general idea about the porting from the Perm data for last year. Something like surge in EB2 India applications in the last year.
I will just say EB2 India only because genuine porting (people changing the Job for EB2 position) is very less. Well of course people can port for a future job as well.

[veni001]

Not necessarily that since the dates have not retrogressed, porting cases are less than or equal to India's annual quota. They may not have retrogressed the dates and left it like that hoping that 12K will remove the need to move the dates back. Retrogressing the dates reflect badly on their performance.

In the normal cases spillover was done in the last quarter, but now they talked about it in June means that
1) either there are quite lot of porting cases and so they want to do a mid year spillover (12K) to not to retrogress the dates (purely for their performance reason as retrogressing dates reflect badly on them)
OR
2) They are worried that they will not be able to allocate the (12K++ EB1) visas in the last quarter.

Otherwise they would not have talked about mid year (12K) spillover in June. Also their statement "very high porting" means the first case.

I believe porting is in the range of 10,000 K/pa. I am sure Q must have done an analysis on the Perm data to gauge the porting because that it the only way we can get an idea of that, IF WE CAN.



My assumption is that more cases from 2006 and beyond simply mean that brisk desi consultancy money for porting business from people who are already with Consultants or came through consultants, people from earlier years are reluctant to port as they are settled down, they know it will take them years to get GC even with their 2003 or 2004 PDs.

donvar,

If you look at PERM trending for FY2011 is almost same as FY 2010, based on for FY 2011 Q1 update.

I-140 trending is also same
October 2009 - January 2010 - Total i-140 completions = 23,512
October 2010- January 2011 - Total i-140 completions = 23,117

We know there is substantial decrease in EB1 which means FY2011 may have higher % EB2 i-140 compared to FY 2010. But what % of them are porting is a big question?

As i stated in my earlier post ,unless half of EB2I PERM approvals are porting cases in the last two quarters,12k porting is not a possibility.
(Note:2011 ROW PERM approval numbers are less than or equal to 2010 ROW PERM approval numbers)

[Osaka001]

Hi,
I just calculated PERM approval for India based on PD(year), I dont know how useful it is, but just want to share with you.

PD_Year Total Cumulative_Description
2006 25703 (14K approved in '06 + 11K in '07 + 108 in '08 + 50 in '09 + 11 in '10)
2007 23011 (12719 approved in '07 + 8335 in '08 + 927 in '09 + 1005 in '10)
2008 22885 (8K apporved in '08 + 10K in '09 + 4381 in '10)
2009 15146 (15K in '10)
2010 17659 (9K in '10 + 8K in '11 Q1)

How ever this would not give us, How many EB2 or EB3 numbers, and also how many are porting cases or new cases?.
If they are all new cases, as every one knows , there is more concentration in '06, '07 and '08.
If most of them are porting cases with PD earlier than '06 then most of them already greened/ or going to green.

[soggadu]

a question/discussion to/for Q and all senior members....

IMO even a small % of spillover is also not yet applied... because when spillover occurs India and china need to be on same cut off date which is not seen in May bulletin...

So are we in for a big move (18 months last year) this time too?

Why i ask this... my pd is in Oct 2007...

[veni001]

a question/discussion to/for Q and all senior members....

IMO even a small % of spillover is also not yet applied... because when spillover occurs India and china need to be on same cut off date which is not seen in May bulletin...

So are we in for a big move (18 months last year) this time too?

Why i ask this... my pd is in Oct 2007...

Soggadu,
May or May not, 2005 had very less filings compared to 2006 or 2007 so any forward movement depends on total SOFAD available by July 2011.

[anuran]

Soggadu,
I agree with veni001's assessment. Late2006 to mid2007 per mensum EB2 I-485 filing density is very high. CIS needs not only a decent spillover number but also quite a bit of will power to wade through the pending applications. Positive aspects - many of them are preadjudicated. Negatives: Apart from the density, DoS states that upgrading/porting applications might throw a wrench in CIS's processing speed. But estimated spillovers will force them to work fast or CIS may waste visas at the end of the FY. DoS no like waste.

PS: I have a graph of pending application at papyh.tumblr.com

[ifaith]

"they are constrained by the limits on the maximum number of visas they can issue during any one fiscal quarter.

There is a flat prohibition on issuing more than 30% of the total number of visas in the quota in any of the first three fiscal quarters. There is no limit on the fourth quarter. "

http://www.immigration-information.c...74/index5.html

Hi Raj
Did you see Ron's comment on the same link
"""
Re: EB2 visa availability
The USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with creating cutoff dates or publishing the Visa Bulletin. That is the sole province of the State Department. I suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."""

What does he means by " suspect that we will see much more movement in the fourth quarter (July - September)."
Can anyone comment on this.

Thanks