EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Q,

I actually agree to a certain extent.

pch asked about the FY2010 vs, FY2011 comparison, so I provided the figures.

If approvals were linear, it would be extremely useful. However they are not. The lumpy nature of approvals leads to wide error margins and with 6 months still to go, it encompasses everything from increased approvals to reduced approvals.

At this point, such an approach has limited value, especially as the situations pertaining to each year may be different (as you pointed out).

The Q2 PERM figures should be available shortly. They "may" provide some additional information and insight into what is going to happen this year. If nothing else, they provide a much larger number base.

[qesehmk]

Spec

You are right. Thats why it can't be taken to the bank immediately.
But somehow I think the probability of another ROW EB2 surge is relatively low. And the probability of that surge turning into approvals is lower.
Because the labors will then have to work their way up into 140 and then 485 and everything that goes with it.

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.

Q,

I actually agree to a certain extent.

pch asked about the FY2010 vs, FY2011 comparison, so I provided the figures.

If approvals were linear, it would be extremely useful. However they are not. The lumpy nature of approvals leads to wide error margins and with 6 months still to go, it encompasses everything from increased approvals to reduced approvals.

At this point, such an approach has limited value, especially as the situations pertaining to each year may be different (as you pointed out).

The Q2 PERM figures should be available shortly. They "may" provide some additional information and insight into what is going to happen this year. If nothing else, they provide a much larger number base.

[zenmaster]

Guys check this out : RonGothcher Forum Link
(read the 4th post)
Ron's firm received fee bill(Consular Process NVC) for someone with priority date of Sep 2007 !!!

Nice hints of whats in store next 4 months !!!

[Spectator]

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.

Q,

Not as soon as I had initially thought.

I downloaded the Q1 file on Feb 15, which was 6 weeks after the end of Q1. So I guess the Q2 figures won't be available until something like May 15.

Prevailing Wage Data was a couple of weeks later.

[pch053]

Q & Spec,
Thanks for the detailed analysis on EB2-ROW; with the data available, this is probably the best we can do now. I think it will be reasonably safe to assume in all our calculations that EB2-ROW will be in and around the vicinity of EB2-ROW usage from last year with an allowance of 10% 15% (either more or less); this will probably translate to 3K - 4K visas.

[alex99]

Sushterman Law Firm Update on EB2 VISA AVAILABILTY FOR MAY:
EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

[soggadu]

Guys,

My PD is EB2 India Oct 22 2007. We are planning for having a kid and i am wondering if it is a better idea to get done with any vaccines along with medical report. Also, do we need to get any vaccination done for applying for 485? Please let me know...

Thanks

Sogg

[veni001]

Sushterman Law Firm Update on EB2 VISA AVAILABILTY FOR MAY:
EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

Definitely we can expect significant PD movement in May based on the information and source, but not years based on the inventory and preadjudicated cases!

[veni001]

Spec

You are right. Thats why it can't be taken to the bank immediately.
But somehow I think the probability of another ROW EB2 surge is relatively low. And the probability of that surge turning into approvals is lower.
Because the labors will then have to work their way up into 140 and then 485 and everything that goes with it.

When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.

Q,
I agree some extent to your comment but i believe all ROW labors approved and eligible for EB2 on or before June 30, 2011 will have a chance to use numbers from FY 2011.

[TeddyKoochu]

veni,

Remember there is still ROW EB2 spillover (may be 9K) available over and above that 12K. So the dates will move quite past Sep 06.

Q I believe we will have higher spillover from EB2 ROW this year the Trackitt trend shows that utilization is down to 60% of last year and Trackitt is fairly good about EB2 ROW.

Spec I will put my modified predictions soon; I feel that there is a very good chance of us hitting Jul - Aug 2007 this year if the May VB news is true.

[pch053]

This is the posting from Shusterman's website and he seems to be optimistic too about EB2-I/C PD movement:

EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!

[TeddyKoochu]

I know Teddy has been very busy recently.

I thought it might be useful to republish his last published table, since it is now so far back in the thread.

I hope he doesn't mind. Given the accelerated timescale, Teddy may well be revising it slightly. I look forward to the latest version.

Spec this is a public table its all yours to use.

[TeddyKoochu]

We had discussed Kazarian case a few weeks back. I think that the Kazarian case is the reason why these is such a significant scrutiny and 50% drop in approvals. What's encouraging is that the drop is confirmed from two sources - one is CO and the other is trackitt. The match is so well that it is quite credible.

I am fairly convinced that the 12K is not only pure EB1 but it is in fact not fulll year number.

The 50% drop when applied to EB1 full year quota would be 20K. So if EB1 alone will give 20K then this is how total SOFAD could reach:

8K (EB5)+20K(EB1) + 8K EB2ROW + 6K EB2IC - 4K porting = 38K. That's almost enough to clear the backlog through Jul 2007. Will update the model over weekend and post. But this will bring an end to the misery of a lot of EB2 folks .... those who have filed 485 and those who haven't.

The worst case scenario seems to be that EB5 will again see a rise and EB1 picks up speed. The first probably has a risk of 4-5K max. The second one has a risk of max 8K (given that 12K is already in the bag). The combined risk wouldn't be more than 10K and hence will easily reach the dates into Jan 07. Stay tuned for an update to the model over weekend.

Q I agree with your assessment I bleive that EB2 ROW will give us more SOFAD this year. TheTrackitt trend shows a decline to 60% of last year. If the May VB news is true then the Jul - Aug 2007 line will be crossed

[veni001]

Q I agree with your assessment I bleive that EB2 ROW will give us more SOFAD this year. TheTrackitt trend shows a decline to 60% of last year. If the May VB news is true then the Jul - Aug 2007 line will be crossed

Teddy,
Looks like the source of information is only referring to 12k EB1 spill over will be applied in May VB for EB2. Is it wise to assume DOS&USCIS do the same from EB2ROW and EB5 in May? Assuming our estimates are some what near reality then DOS/USCIS should advance EB2IC PD into 2007 to give enough time to process cases so that the numbers will not go waste at the end of the year?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Looks like the source of information is only referring to 12k EB1 spill over will be applied in May VB for EB2. Is it wise to assume DOS&USCIS do the same from EB2ROW and EB5 in May? Assuming our estimates are some what near reality then DOS/USCIS should advance EB2IC PD into 2007 to give enough time to process cases so that the numbers will not go waste at the end of the year?

Traditionally they do that only in Jul, so for now lets assume they are doing only 12K this should put the dates in the Oct - Nov 2006 range.

[bestin]

Thanks Guys..!!!Carry out the excellent work.My attorney mentioned that the May bulletin will move or 1 year until May 2007 and july should be sometime this summer.Lets see how it goes.

[veni001]

Traditionally they do that only in Jul, so for now lets assume they are doing only 12K this should put the dates in the Oct - Nov 2006 range.

Teddy,
Thanks, I am with you.

[qesehmk]

Sogg, Pregnant women are exempt from vaccination as far as 485 filing and related medical goes.

p.s. - However they do have to finally get it done before getting the actual GC. Thanks to Teddy for pointing it out! I do not know if it can be preemtively done. It might be a good idea to talk to a doctor and ask if during pregnancy vaccinations are safe. If they are then in all likelihood you will file pretty soon. If vaccinations are not safe then it might be a good idea to vaccinate before pregnancy and use those records for the post 485-filing medical examination.

Guys,

My PD is EB2 India Oct 22 2007. We are planning for having a kid and i am wondering if it is a better idea to get done with any vaccines along with medical report. Also, do we need to get any vaccination done for applying for 485? Please let me know...

Thanks

Sogg

[bieber]

Q

at some point (most likely this fiscal year) demand data should show zero for EB2IC, It takes atleast 4 months for dependents who missed last time and porting whoever will apply to make it into the Demand Data. Is this correct? Since there are only 4 bulletins left in this fiscal, technically whatever inventory we have for EB2IC right now is the maximum demand that can be possible.

When that happens, Can DOS actually set a date other than C?

[qesehmk]

Q,
I agree some extent to your comment but i believe all ROW labors approved and eligible for EB2 on or before June 30, 2011 will have a chance to use numbers from FY 2011.

The average time to approval for 485 for ROW EB2 is 138 days i.e. 4.5 months. So not far from what you are suggesting. Right now its about 6 months left. So if there is no surge in next 2 months .. then EB2 ROW will probably consume 20% less compared to last year and yield 12K FA.

Thanks Guys..!!!Carry out the excellent work.My attorney mentioned that the May bulletin will move or 1 year until May 2007 and july should be sometime this summer.Lets see how it goes.

Many sources seem to suggest that May will move by years. But I must say that USCIS tends to move dates in Jun Jul. So may be lets not have very high hopes on date movements in May itself.


Teddy ... good to hear from you. Welcome back!

[qesehmk]

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

Q

at some point (most likely this fiscal year) demand data should show zero for EB2IC, It takes atleast 4 months for dependents who missed last time and porting whoever will apply to make it into the Demand Data. Is this correct? Since there are only 4 bulletins left in this fiscal, technically whatever inventory we have for EB2IC right now is the maximum demand that can be possible.

When that happens, Can DOS actually set a date other than C?

[krishnav]

Hello All,

This is my first post here. First of all congratulations on the great work you guys have been doing and thanks for all the support with answering the queries.

I had a question about priority dates. My priority date is sept 2007..I am sure its really difficult to be current. So, assuming it doesn't and lets say the dates only go to July 2007, why does USCIS always wait till April/May to move the current dates likes this year (Its been at May 2006 since Sept 2010). If this year was an exception, normally how long does it take for the dates to move from jyly 2007 to sept 2007?

Also, what kind of a chance is there for the PD to go to sept 2007?

Thanks a lot.

[veni001]

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

Since both DOS and USCIS is coordinating together in setting the PD now, i am sure they have a handle on approved i140 by month by country. Also as we have seen in the last couple of years, only time EB2I PD can advance is when FA or SOFAD numbers are available. So it all depends on when they will clear the existing backlog, beginning of FY then there may not be significant movement, 3rd or 4thQ then chances of significant movement!

[leo07]

I think post July-2007, DOS and CIS are coordinating much better than ever before. Yet, they are two gov orgs, so the lag is expected. I agree that they will have to move dates before seeing their usual/nearest inventory levels. This lag could be beneficial for May-June-July 07 applicants, the border-line cases for calendar year 2011. I don't think DOS will move dates to Current for EB2IC. If they do that, it practically chokes the CIS system completely again, not in the best interest of DOS now. My 2 cents

DOS will move teh dates well before that happens. Your question is really by how much they will move the date ... and while a year movement beyond 2007 July is more than enough ... my gut feel is they could make the category current for a month or two to take everybody in and then retrogress it.

I think there are others on this forum who think USCIS will exercise controlled date movement. And I don't deny that. That is certainly a possibility. Its just I think it is more probable that they make everything current for a while before retrogressing it to 2007.

[veni001]

I think post July-2007, DOS and CIS are coordinating much better than ever before. Yet, they are two gov orgs, so the lag is expected. I agree that they will have to move dates before seeing their usual/nearest inventory levels. This lag could be beneficial for May-June-July 07 applicants, the border-line cases for calendar year 2011. I don't think DOS will move dates to Current for EB2IC. If they do that, it practically chokes the CIS system completely again, not in the best interest of DOS now. My 2 cents

Leo,
I agree, this year the chance for moving dates to near or to Aug 2007 is high, with FY 2011 trending so far.