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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #2451
    As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so.
    Q you started talking like CO...trying not to give your exact PD. We need to start a new thread "Q's EB2 PD Predictions (Rather Calculations)"

  2. #2452
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sidd21 View Post
    Hi Q/All Gurus,

    This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

    My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?
    You have to wait one more month; have your docs ready so that you can apply during Aug'11 when your PD will be current.

  3. #2453
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

    Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

    Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.
    Special Thanks to Q & his source. Good luck to all who are current.
    I am current next month. Hopefully I should be greened next month.
    My PD is 01/26/2007


    Cheers.

  4. #2454
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Really...thanks for sharing with us.

  5. #2455
    Yoda
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    There is no commentary on EB2 (for that matter on anything). For the last few bulletins they have been putting in lot of info and caveats.

    I get a feeling that they realized they are going to be able to clear up the backlog and based on the above mentioned 'no commentary' in bulletin - They will make EB2 IC current in August or Sept VB.

    I know i am dreaming... but atleast i will be happy for 1 or 2 months with this possible pipe dream.

    Congratulations to friends who will get greened in next 1 month or so. Please pray for rest of us!!

  6. #2456
    Honest to God .... I have lost track of all my documentation because I am so much more concerned about my career. Although my career is held back and there were errors in GC processing; I do defer everything to the lawyers - not by choice - but by compulsion. I am 99% confident that date is Mar 28th though and 100% confident it is later than 21st March.


    Quote Originally Posted by 03May07 View Post
    Q you started talking like CO...trying not to give your exact PD. We need to start a new thread "Q's EB2 PD Predictions (Rather Calculations)"
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  7. #2457
    Not at this time. Hang in there, you'll get through this cycle.
    Just as FYI and FWIW, Even 08th March 2007 is NOT eligible to file. Only uptil 7th March 2007 are eligible to apply in the month of July 2011.

    Mine is 08th June 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by sidd21 View Post
    Hi Q/All Gurus,

    This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

    My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

  8. #2458
    With Aug bulleting, Q will get his gc and teddy gets to file 485

    kudos to you both buddies

  9. #2459
    Quote Originally Posted by snathan View Post
    Really...thanks for sharing with us.
    don't be harsh on kanmani, he/she didnot read the thread and wanted to share the news, that's so sweet

  10. #2460
    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    don't be harsh on kanmani, he/she didnot read the thread and wanted to share the news, that's so sweet
    I am not harsh...just kidding.

    Bwt...great work guys..
    Last edited by snathan; 06-09-2011 at 04:05 PM.

  11. #2461
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sha_kus View Post
    EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

    This is a big WOW!!!

    Congratulations to those going to be C in July

  12. #2462
    I agree. Without doing any number crunching or reading with clarity (trying to juggle many things right now). .... I believe Jul-Aug 2007 is a very fair possibility and listen carefully now .... if July-Aug becomes a fair possibility then moving the dates by at least a year ahead of that i.e. Jul-Aug 2008 is not at all difficult. So those folks with PDs 2008 stay alert and prepared.... there is a decent "chance" that you may become current "for a brief period of time"

    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    I get a feeling that they realized they are going to be able to clear up the backlog and based on the above mentioned 'no commentary' in bulletin - They will make EB2 IC current in August or Sept VB.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  13. #2463
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

    This is a big WOW!!!

    Congratulations to those going to be C in July
    What is the chance for PD getting into 2008 in this FY

  14. #2464
    Happy to see the visa bulletin with cut off date of 08 March 2007. I hope to be greened soon in the coming month
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 06-09-2011 at 04:16 PM. Reason: typo

  15. #2465
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
    If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

    I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?
    Looks like DOS/USCIS going to use SOFAD from Q1-Q3 in July itself?

  16. #2466
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I agree. Without doing any number crunching or reading with clarity (trying to juggle many things right now). .... I believe Jul-Aug 2007 is a very fair possibility and listen carefully now .... if July-Aug becomes a fair possibility then moving the dates by at least a year ahead of that i.e. Jul-Aug 2008 is not at all difficult. So those folks with PDs 2008 stay alert and prepared.... there is a decent "chance" that you may become current "for a brief period of time"
    Q,
    Agree, interestingly enough, they did not throw any prediction this time in July 2011 Visa Bulletin for the remainder of the year.

  17. #2467
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Looks like DOS/USCIS going to use SOFAD from Q1-Q3 in July itself?
    From oct2006-mar8,2007 the china + India inventory number is 10,500. If that's all they have left for SOFAD why would they use all in July

    just noticed, the inventory between Mar 2007-Aug2007 is interestingly matches close to 10,500

    it it too optimistice to think backlog will be cleared in Aug bulletin and sept is going to give a chance for new filers
    Last edited by bieber; 06-09-2011 at 04:21 PM.

  18. #2468
    My PD is EB2I 14FEB2007 and as per JUL-11 visa bulletin i am current.

    My question Is --> I have got Canada visitor visa on Tuesday 7th Jun and i have plan to go to Vancouver for next weekend 17,18,19 Jun on AP. based on this Jul11 Bulletin i am sure i can go but wanted see if there are any hidden adverse affects if at all.

    Please share your thoughts...

  19. #2469
    I believe temporary visit abroad doesn't discontinue your AOS process. It might be prudent to check with your lawyer since I am not a lawyer!

    Quote Originally Posted by navik_pathak View Post
    My PD is EB2I 14FEB2007 and as per JUL-11 visa bulletin i am current.

    My question Is --> I have got Canada visitor visa on Tuesday 7th Jun and i have plan to go to Vancouver for next weekend 17,18,19 Jun on AP. based on this Jul11 Bulletin i am sure i can go but wanted see if there are any hidden adverse affects if at all.

    Please share your thoughts...
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  20. #2470
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    From oct2006-mar8,2007 the china + India inventory number is 10,500. If that's all they have left for SOFAD why would they use all in July
    bieber,
    I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.
    Last edited by veni001; 06-09-2011 at 04:29 PM.

  21. #2471
    Yoda
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    I would impagine they will have atleast 10K SOFAD for August/Sept VBs. Pending Demand for those two months will be more or less 10K. I have a feeling that they will consume 7K or so to take us June-07 in August VB and leave the rest 3K or so for Sept VB (just in case EB1 and EB2 ROW sees some unexpected approvals).

    In the Sep VB they will utlize the 3K SOFAD and advance the dates by atleast 1 year (worst case) to Current (best case) so that they can build EB2IC pipeline for FY 2012 and further.

    This is just a possibility!

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    bieber,
    I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.

  22. #2472
    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!
    LOL. Mine is March 09, 2007. :shakes fist upstairs:

  23. #2473
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

    This is a big WOW!!!

    Congratulations to those going to be C in July

    A kickass start to the weekend!! Congrats to those who'll be C this month and those who are eligible to file the I-485..
    To those who are waiting.. Keep your chins up and spirits high!! Freedom Express is rolling..
    Let it Roll, Baby Roll!!!

  24. #2474
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    bieber,
    I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.
    Since the cutoff dates are not aligning with begining of the months, I did some guess work for oct 2006(50%) and march 2007(25%)

  25. #2475

    Jul 2011 Bulletin & Ahead

    Inventory difference between 15th Oct 2006 and 8th Mar 2007
    China : 5529 - 2109 = 3420
    India : 15578 - 7206 = 8372

    The total inventory difference is 11792. I would say that the movement is ~ 12K. Remember before the July bulletin the target was 24K in 3 months now 50% is completed. This effectively renders the preadjudicated EB2 I + C demand to 10-12K range.
    The PWMB total from May to Jul is 5K. PWMB for now are insignificant to date movements because they are like virtual demand will come to the fore only when the dates move till that point. Now the way forward as many of you have asked. The August bulletin is going to be extremely critical; we now have 10-12K preadjudicated numbers post 8th Mar 2007. So even if we get 6K in the next 2 bulletins it should be ok. However looks like the next bulletin will also be a long shot and September will be like finishing touches.

    Now we have to be cognizant to the fact that 15 + 12K = 27K SOFAD has been consumed we have crossed last years figures already. So we should keep our optimism a little bit guarded as well as to how much more we can get. I still feel that the preadjudicated numbers will be enough but looks like they will be barely enough so to cover all of them they may move the dates to 01-Aug-2007 or 01-Sep-2007 by the Sep bulletin for sure to get every one of them.

    The gate definitely has to be opened it should either happen in Sep 2011 or Oct 2011 bulletin. The intake should be sufficient to maintain a 40K buffer. If the dates hit 01-Aug-2007 which I believe is 60% sure then the next intake should be till mid 2008. We will be adjusting this based on the Aug bulletin. The critical things are that people who are current should get approved that’s the key to move forward. Good luck to everyone.
    Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 06-09-2011 at 05:21 PM.

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