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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #2401
    veni,

    Thanks. Great job. Just a minor suggestion. When you post anything please also put your conclusion and observations about the data as well. Not all people are savvy enough to understand the data immediately. So it might help everybody if you could put your observations down.

    Just a suggestion ....

    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 & FY 2011 (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA section.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  2. #2402
    guys - i think spillover from eb5 will not be as high as previous years. it will still be about 6000 but not 8-9k. in grand scheme of things, doesn't change our views too much, but wanted to highlight. i read an article how the eb5 program is being used by foreign investors to make investments in the real estate sector (through developers) - so its actually much easier than coming here and trying to start your own business from scratch. in 2010 fiscal, they received 1900 applications but in the first 6 months of fiscal 2011, they've received 1927 applications.

  3. #2403
    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    guys - i think spillover from eb5 will not be as high as previous years. it will still be about 6000 but not 8-9k. in grand scheme of things, doesn't change our views too much, but wanted to highlight. i read an article how the eb5 program is being used by foreign investors to make investments in the real estate sector (through developers) - so its actually much easier than coming here and trying to start your own business from scratch. in 2010 fiscal, they received 1900 applications but in the first 6 months of fiscal 2011, they've received 1927 applications.
    what is the source for your info regarding 1900 applications?. I think they just streamlined the eb5 process as it was not attracting too many investors.
    Last edited by neospeed; 06-09-2011 at 09:24 AM.

  4. #2404
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    That's so true - we do get colored by our own PD.

    As per any movement beyond Aug 2007 ... I don't deny the possibility exists. However I firmly believe any such movement won't be sustainable i.e. will be retrogressed in a couple of months after those people are able to file 485s.
    Even to hear this kind of words is quite encouraging, i am not sure if my priority date will be current for atleast 1 month( March '2008) in this fiscal year, but my confidence level at work/home improves with this sought of posts .
    1) I am not sure if uscis really does not want to take more than 30-40k application for next year( assuming atmost 10k application will be left till June'07).
    2) I pray to God USCIS fall short of funds and allow another 50k application to file their EAD's

    Any I am certain dates will move to atleast June'2007 in this fiscal year and will be very happy to KICK OUT people in those dates out of our Q .

    Does any one have numbers to see how many labors were approved from June'2007 to dec'2007 and also 2008, 2009, 2010?

  5. #2405
    Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.
    Last edited by vishnu; 06-09-2011 at 09:40 AM.

  6. #2406
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    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.
    vishnu,
    Are we talking about 1927 primary applications or total (including derivatives)?

  7. #2407
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    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    2007 - 85k certified ( I did not filter by visa class)
    out of which 28k are certified in 2006( i am not sure why they have this data in 2007)
    So there are around 58k certified in 2006. And out of which till feb end there are around 15k application
    with potential prority date in 2006( I know many eb3 are approved in only month but i am elimination eb3 for this
    case).

    In 2007 July a lot of people have applied for I485 means their labors have been already certified.
    in the data till Jun 29 - there are around 36k labors certified.
    from June 29 to dec 07 there are around 20k labors certifed for all countries and all visa classes

    I am not sure what is ratio of eb2:eb3 in 2007 but these numbers are quite huge
    guys, please refer to FACTS AND DATA section. All calculations are already there.

  8. #2408
    Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(

  9. #2409
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    guys, please refer to FACTS AND DATA section. All calculations are already there.
    Sorry for my posts. I have deleted my posts. Any way in the FACTS AND DATA section there is raw data and i am sure some body have discussed already about that data and some people might not like further discussion on prediction, Thanks of letting me know. I will just reply if any one starts post on this.
    Last edited by grnwtg; 06-09-2011 at 10:30 AM.

  10. #2410
    i am sure suninphx only meant to let you know that the data already exists. All of us can alwasy discuss the data and put forth our view.

    And no need to be sorry. In fact, thank you for participating.

    Quote Originally Posted by grnwtg View Post
    Sorry for my posts. I have deleted my posts. Any way in the FACTS AND DATA section there is raw data and i am sure some body have discussed already about that data and some people might not like further discussion on prediction, Thanks of letting me know. I will just reply if any one starts post on this.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  11. #2411
    sorry Veni - does not say.

  12. #2412
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 & FY 2011 (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA section.
    Thanks Veni. This format gives more clarity, how the backlog is being reduced.
    march 2010: eb2 I: 37,450
    June 2011 : eb2 I: 20,350

    It appears backlog got reduced around 17k to 20k , as far the data is available.

    I hope the figure drops to zero by the end of this quarter and they start taking new batch of applications.

  13. #2413
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    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    sorry Veni - does not say.
    vishnu,
    Assuming it as the total and 70% approval rate you have mentioned, we are talking about 2k demand for FY2011
    Last edited by veni001; 06-09-2011 at 11:23 AM. Reason: typo

  14. #2414
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    Quote Originally Posted by neospeed View Post
    Thanks Veni. This format gives more clarity, how the backlog is being reduced.
    march 2010: eb2 I: 37,450
    June 2011 : eb2 I: 20,350

    It appears backlog got reduced around 17k to 20k , as far the data is available.

    I hope the figure drops to zero by the end of this quarter and they start taking new batch of applications.
    neospeed,
    Demand data shows only documentarily qualified applicants from the pending list.

    "Documentarily qualified applicants are those individuals who have obtained all documents required to meet the formal visa application requirements as specified by their consular office, and, for those applicants, the consular office has completed the necessary processing procedures."

  15. #2415
    Can we have all FACTS AND DATA in excel or in google docs so we can play with better. Thank you.

  16. #2416
    Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(
    As we know "The later the better" as far as the bulletins are concerned, I don't mind waiting until wednesday or beyond

  17. #2417
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    i am sure suninphx only meant to let you know that the data already exists. All of us can alwasy discuss the data and put forth our view.

    And no need to be sorry. In fact, thank you for participating.
    correct- meant exactly that. Never meant to offence anyone. Just a pointer.

  18. #2418
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    vishnu,
    Assuming it as the total and 70% approval rate you have mentioned, we are talking about 2k demand for FY2011
    I think it was meant 1927 applications for the first 6 months, which effectively means ~3.9 - 4K applications for the entire year and hence 6K spillover from EB5. Please correct me though if my interpretation is not correct.

  19. #2419
    yes - it should translate into 3.9 - 4k for the year, but we don't know if it includes dependents and what the approval rate would be (historically has been around 70%).

  20. #2420
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    If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

  21. #2421
    Quote Originally Posted by mpurna77 View Post
    Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(
    -->Can someone explain why if the bulletin is not out on Friday, it wont be out till Wednesday? Why cant it be out on Monday or Tuesday?

  22. #2422
    Quote Originally Posted by pravara View Post
    -->Can someone explain why if the bulletin is not out on Friday, it wont be out till Wednesday? Why cant it be out on Monday or Tuesday?
    I read our GC-Guru Q's post #2454 mentioning about that. I am thinking Q's source updated Q.

  23. #2423
    Quote Originally Posted by 03May07 View Post
    I read our GC-Guru Q's post #2454 mentioning about that. I am thinking Q's source updated Q.
    No In June VB they waited for 2 days to grab demand data. so Q mentioning same for this bulletin too.

  24. #2424
    Usually its friday of first full week or wednesday the next week. Just an observation. I am not aware whether DoS has published this as a schedule somewhere.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  25. #2425
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    neospeed,
    Demand data shows only documentarily qualified applicants from the pending list.

    "Documentarily qualified applicants are those individuals who have obtained all documents required to meet the formal visa application requirements as specified by their consular office, and, for those applicants, the consular office has completed the necessary processing procedures."
    Hello Veni,

    You mean to say the all the above demand is pre adjudicated demand,And there is some other demand which is not counted in the demand data?. Anyways if dos is relying on this data to move the dates, that's all we need to consider right?.

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