EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.

So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!

[veni001]

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

[veni001]

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCT approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

[veni001]

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCTOBER approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

[veni001]

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release!

[nuvikas]

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page LOL

[veni001]

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page LOL

About this time last year i remember predicting for 200th page for EB2 prediction thread on IV

[bieber]

Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

[qesehmk]

I agree that we have to do it sometime & may be soon. Not sure when. The performance of the site seems good. May be we could spawn another thread when it deteriorates?

Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

[grnwtg]

03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release!

OK let us request DOS to make everybody current on the eve of 100th Page ...

[qesehmk]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

[srini1976]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Thanks to Q and Q's source. BTW did he tell you when the July VB will be released?

[shaumack]

Thanks Q. Great News. Time to make Doctor's appointment. LOL

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

[Spectator]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Q,

Thanks for the update.

The VB moved 3 and a half months in the June VB. If it moved the same in the July VB (as happy) then it would move to 01FEB07 (that would use around 8.5k extra visas).

If people will be "happier", that suggests a bigger movement than even that.

Since we don't know the % split for July/August/September it doesn't necessarily tell us where the year will end, but it is very encouraging.

[mpurna77]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Thank you 'Q'. Great News.. I will be current then :-)

[bieber]

Q, great news

Hope your friend will get gc soon and keep giving us good news

[srinivasj]

if it croesses Jan 07..I will be current too..Great news Q...thanks..we will pray for your source too...

[bieber]

not to read toomuch in between lines, but happier>happy so definitely more than 3.5 months movement can be expected

[mpurna77]

In Trackitt we didn't see any approvals for last two days. what's going on. is TSC/NSC stopped approving...

[gcwait2007]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

This news is very much fit for 100th page. Keeping fingers crossed since PD is very close

[skpanda]

This is good news... I will not be current (PD in 2010) but I am happy for guys who will be current and pray that you get your GC (and freedom) very soon!!

Good Luck!!

[mpurna77]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

[pravara]

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

-->There is nothing wrong on keeping an open secret Let them find it themselves. More power to Q forum

[qesehmk]

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.