Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character..Originally Posted by bieber
Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character..
Are you sure? How about Palin/Trump ticket!!!!
Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character..
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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As Veni told
"Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)
I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?"
In that case if USCIS/DOS want to utilize 18K at once, in the July VB we gonna see EB2I/C - APR 2007 (6months) last year it is 8 months?
Ohh boy.. Palin/Trump ticket would provide enough funny material for the media to last 2 presidential election cycles..But it is as likely to happen as the DoS making all EB categories "C" because:
A. The Donald and his supersized ego would refuse to play second fiddle to her highness..
B. My experience with watching reality shows tells me that when two stars collide there can never be peace.
C. Both the "Bachelor" and the "Bachelorette" are experiencing declining popularity..
Let me try to clear some of the confusion.
- ~ 24K additional spillover in the last quarter will clear almost the entire backlog - pwmb. Potentially this can bring the dates very close to 01-Aug-2007.
- Everyone has slightly different perception of how much SOFAD we may see in the last quarter but it is mostly less than 24K. It really varies from 16-24K. Based on that the dates may stabilize between 01-Mar-2007 to 01-Aug-2007.A realistic date may probably be 15-APR-2007.
- If last year is a precedent then all the spillover happened only in the last quarter. This year atleast 9k from the 12K EB1 spillover promised at the time of the May bulletin has been applied. In my opinion we should not attribute any percentages to what will be applied when it is entirely discretionary.
- Coming to the 8k what is being hypothesized is that if we have to see 24K spillover in the last quarter it will either be even 8K in the 3 bulletins or higher in the Jul and Aug bulletins. So if the dates have to reach 01-Aug-2007 we should have atleast 8k movement in the Jul bulletin meaning dates advancing to atleast 01-Feb-2007 to keep the hopes alive.
Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?
Thanks!
Is there a correlation between the PD movements in End of Fiscal Year Visa Bulletins and the data published in the USCIS visa bulletin inventory? The reason I ask this, is that it could answer questions about how much does the DoS relies on the data published by the USCIS.
The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong). But this year, the scenario is different as the USCIS does not have any established numbers.If there is any analysis/data about the correlation between EOY movements and inventory stats, could you please let me know?
hi all... quick question... i read some where that most of the approvals were done in first two weeks of the month and then the speed of approvals dies down... is this correct historically for any category?
Thats quite logical since the ability to allocate visa will exhaust itself quite quickly when the cases are preadj. However there is not a whole lot of historicaly precedent to having tons of preadj cases. To difficult to say whether this is correct historically.
For last few months certainly that seems to be teh case.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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ChampU,
The Demand Data is published by DOS not USCIS.
It contains "documentarily qualified" applicants that DOS is aware of. It therefore contains CP cases, but not necessarily all the cases reported in the USCIS Inventory.
Neither is it it absolutely clear at which point CP cases themselves are considered qualified to be included in the report - it is not spelt out specifically. It must be quite late in the process, since the description says they are reported at consular posts, rather than from the NVC (possibly after the interview date has been assigned by NVC and the paperwork shipped to the consulate).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Last year the movement was 7+7+6 from the Jul+Aug+Sep bulletins. Unfortunately the Jul & Aug bulletins were through leaner stretches and for the Jul bulletin China was not a factor, in September the EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals were also higher seems like a very sincere attempt was made to approve any of those cases as well. You are correct in identifying that there is a large stockpile of Eb2 ROW and EB1 Applications and if USCIS decides to concentrate on them in the last quarter it will reduce our SOFAD numbers. Another point to note is that most of these applications are concentrated in the months prior to the last 4-5 months this could be a) Concurrent filings coupled with slow I140 approvals b) Stricter scrutiny in general. Additionally these numbers are a little higher this time than the earlier inevntories. I hope nothing nothing unusual happens on these and we are able to get our SOFAD. For us being able to reach the 01-Aug-2007 mark the Jul bulletin is defintely a very critical litmus test we have to reach Feb 2007 in the bulletin otherwise there is virtually no chance. Good luck to all for the Jul VB. The approvals rate has been a good for the June VB this augurs well for us.
In that case i see a lot more spilover from EB2 ROWMP and EB1 than we are predicting/projecting from July... I say this keeping in mind that Eb2 I/C cases will take priority in the last quarter not because of any other reason but because they are the most retrogressed... This is good for this year but bad for next year spilover... any comments??
Technically, if demand data shows zero DOS should make the date current. If DOS moves dates as per demand data till september, there will be a time in fy2012 when demand goes to zero and if it is in Q3/Q4 then CIS will not have sufficient time to process new 485s and visa numbers will either go waste or will be used by EB3.
so, if you are waiting to file 485, what DOS does is kind of irrelevant as long as there is spillover we will get a chance sometime in next fy.
Last edited by bieber; 06-07-2011 at 04:05 PM.
In regard to pending Eb1 10k, may be most of the cases stuck for additional review from long time and piled up for sometime etc. Showing up in the inventory.
I agree that EB2IC will be first in line for SPILLOVER/SOFAD. However the rest I didnt understand. Can you please explain. I didn't really understand the rationale.
p.s. - As per your original question..... as I said, preadj exists only for retrogressed countries and so we are seeing this phenomenon of heavy first 2 weeks followed by a trickle.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
What i meant is that in the last quarter, most of the cases that would get worked on are Eb2 I/C as they are most retrogressed so more time allocated to free the back log...in due process, there will be pending( not every application but considerable number ) inventory for Eb1 and Eb2 row...
No. I wouldn't worry about that. This shouldn't have any effect on next years EB1 and EB2 ROW. If they have eligible EB1 / EB2 ROW this year they will assign visa to them first because their dates are current.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.
Thanks!
If that trend continues, we can expect the bulk of the spillover to be alloted in July and August VB. What happens in September VB would be anyone's guess.. in the range Retrogression -No movement - C..
Thanks Spec!
If the visa number allocation and PD movement is entirely driven by the DoS and the USCIS acts as the funnel for the immigration process, what happens when the established inventory at the USCIS is depleted? And as a matter of policy, what would happen if this situation arises in Q1/Q2 of 2012?
You are correct that the movement in the Sep bulletin was 2 months and a week but it had ~ 6K of EB I/C Traffic, so the movement in terms of numbers was not too bad we were passing through a dense zone.
Yes, I am waiting to file 485. With a PD of 02/2008, I might need a mid-sized spillover to reach that goal.
If you notice, most of my questions/comments/queries are more about what happen in FY 2012 than what would happen in July.
As someone had pointed out, in this process all our thoughts/worries and hopes, revolve around our PDs.
There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A possible distinct precedent is that last year for a family based category they advanced the dates by 2 years (DID NOT MAKE IT CURRENT) and then retrogessed.
Many theories/possibilities are floating around:
1. DOS will make the dates current to build the pipeline.
2. DOS will follow the family example from last year. Advance by 1+ years to have enough applications for FY 2012. Retrogess in Q1 FY 2012.
3. DOS will advance dates in a controlled manner (2/3 months during Q1/Q2 FY2012) and once they enough applications will retrogess.
We will only know in future which option they will go with. Option 1 above may be highly unlikely since DOS/USCIS may not want to repeat the July 2007 fiasco.
Good Luck!
S
Nice summary SKpanda. I think #2 is more likely. #1 is next & #3 is least likely.
The reason being USCIS and DOS do not have such fine operations to move dates in a fine manner such as #3. So that leaves #1 & #2. #1 is a bit extreme. So #2 is more likely.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
tanu_75,Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will tryVery good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.
"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."
Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.
USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.
So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!
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