EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Yep! They are quite rare. But exist nonetheless. No need to consider them separately.

Q,

Also, these anamolies are nearly negligible in number. There are also arguments such as cross-chargeability, etc., which lead to these genuine approvals. Nevertheles, anamolies such as approvals outside of current priority date is perhaps less than 0.001%

[bieber]

Perhaps you meant, all "pre-adjudicated" backlog. If the case has not been pre-adjudicated, it takes about 3 months.

ofcourse, I don't think PWMB and new portings will be approved this fy.

Keeping in mind this is only 6th calendar day of the month and Oct10th PD getting approved appears very efficient effort from CIS.

[TeluguBidda]

ofcourse, I don't think PWMB and new portings will be approved this fy.

Keeping in mind this is only 6th calendar day of the month and Oct10th PD getting approved appears very efficient effort from CIS.

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.

[soggadu]

I am using the Trackitt % from last year. I adjusted EB2-I to account for CO's statement that the limit was reached at the end of April, but I was within a few visa numbers anyway.

The EB2-I number is pretty accurate I think. China isn't very well represented, so the error margin is wider for them.

PS I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).

Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011

[Spectator]

Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011

Didn't get eaten by a bear - done (or was doing it as you posted).

[qesehmk]

Spec You have aroused our curiousity. You must disclose this information in public interest :-)

I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).

Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011

sogaddu ... please check the SOFAD PROJECTIONS thread within FACTS and DATA section. I have already updated this info a few days back.
p.s. - If Spec doesn't respond within 48 hours lets start a thread with suggested obituries for Spec's headstone. Here is mine in advance for Spec - "He was a good guy ... until he filed his labor."

[qesehmk]

Hey you beat me!

Didn't get eaten by a bear - done (or was doing it as you posted).

[TeluguBidda]

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.

Well, Feb 2007 seems to be unlikely. After doing calculations based on data from Q, Spec, Yourself and others, I feel like they might push it to Dec 2006 (or, at the most, Jan 2007). Based on their pessimistic tone / note in June visa bulletin, it appears like there will be 1.5 to 2.5 months move.

[TeddyKoochu]

Well, Feb 2007 seems to be unlikely. After doing calculations based on data from Q, Spec, Yourself and others, I feel like they might push it to Dec 2006 (or, at the most, Jan 2007). Based on their pessimistic tone / note in June visa bulletin, it appears like there will be 1.5 to 2.5 months move.

01-FEB-2007 is what Iam hoping so that we stay on Track for 01-AUG-2007 in September. But this date represents a progression of around 8K numbers its not all that hard. 01-JAN-2007 looks almost like a certainty though. The VB projections unfortunately have changed very drastically in some cases take for example porting from the May - Jun bulletin. We should only looks at them for high level guidance, they reevaluate the situation every month. Lets hope for the best.

[qesehmk]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?

01-FEB-2007 is what Iam hoping so that we stay on Track for 01-AUG-2007 in September. But this date represents a progression of around 8K numbers its not all that hard. 01-JAN-2007 looks almost like a certainty though. The VB projections unfortunately have changed very drastically in some cases take for example porting from the May - Jun bulletin. We should only looks at them for high level guidance, they reevaluate the situation every month. Lets hope for the best.

[tanu_75]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?

Q, wasn't the backlog 34k not 43k. If I look at the demand data used for prep of Oct 2010 VB, the backlog for EB2(mostly IC) is 34,325.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?

Q we can come pretty close to it if we see another 24K a month @8k for the next 3 months. The PWMB's will be like virtual demand they may not count and will be a buffer at best. I think the 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) that you budgeted is primarily PWMB. However the Jul bulletin really will be a litmus test for it if it falls short of 01-Feb-2007 there is no chance then. Now coming to how another 24K is possible a) 8K from EB5 is fairly certain b) 3K from the 12K EB1 is pending and maybe another 5K can be accumulated in the coming months but it is an overstretch c) EB2 ROW I feel that 6-7K is realistic, stretching to 8K maybe hard.

[qesehmk]

Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.

Q, wasn't the backlog 34k not 43k. If I look at the demand data used for prep of Oct 2010 VB, the backlog for EB2(mostly IC) is 34,325.

Q we can come pretty close to it if we see another 24K a month @8k for the next 3 months. The PWMB's will be like virtual demand they may not count and will be a buffer at best. I think the 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) that you budgeted is primarily PWMB. However the Jul bulletin really will be a litmus test for it if it falls short of 01-Feb-2007 there is no chance then. Now coming to how another 24K is possible a) 8K from EB5 is fairly certain b) 3K from the 12K EB1 is pending and maybe another 5K can be accumulated in the coming months but it is an overstretch c) EB2 ROW I feel that 6-7K is realistic, stretching to 8K maybe hard.

Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

[bieber]

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.

good to know, thanks

[bieber]

Q

sometimes I get the feeling you just test others by doing mistakes on purpose

just kidding bro, you better be here after next month (I'm sure you will get your gc in next 30 days)

[qesehmk]

LoL!! I used to think that way ... but after 10 years of marriage I have started admitting my mistakes

Q

sometimes I get the feeling you just test others by doing mistakes on purpose

just kidding bro, you better be here after next month (I'm sure you will get your gc in next 30 days)

[tanu_75]

Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.




Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

Just thinking out loud here. I think if we assume that they are moving dates too late in the game for approvals and they don't want to waste visas, the PWMB probably won't be accounted for in this year, no? if this is true, then as a conservative estimate we can still get around 12k (eb1) + 6k(quota) + 6k (eb2) + 5k(eb5) = 29k . so conservatively we should move to around mar/apr 2007 (by end of year). then they are left with only 2-5k from eb2 backlog and maybe around 6k more from pwmb so around 8-10k. So then it's perception game in DOS whether they think they should advance the dates now or wait till later. I feel they move dates by a year or so beyond the max approval date (mar/apr 2007), so mar/apr 2008 by sep 2011 knowing that

1. demand is falling post july 2007 through 2008 before building up a little more in 2009 (as per PERM data)
2. they need to have enough time to build the preadj cases to move them off shelf next jun/jul when this opens up again, knowing that they better give time to USCIS otherwise it'll be chaos again next year and visas will be inevitably wasted if opened late.
3. they need to have a pre-adj pipeline of around 25k cases.

[pch053]

I think we are all in agreement and its the most logical conclusion that the PDs will advance to the vicinity of April'07 - July'07 by Sep bulletin. The thing we are unsure is that how USCIS will advance the PDs from then onwards. The options are: i) advance by a year in the Sep bulletin and then retrogress from Oct, ii) advance the dates gradually next year, though they will have enough PWMB cases to adjudicate even without advancing for first 6 - 7 months, iii) advance dates around next May or so such that there will be enough time to adjudicate cases without wasting visas, iv) any other option that I have missed.

I think July's bulletin will give us an idea which way we are headed. If I remember correctly from last year, most of the forward movement happened during July and Aug bulletins and the PDs moved only 2 months for the Sep bulletin. Not sure whether same trend will be followed though for this year. Are we expecting the July bulletin this coming Friday?

Thanks!

[suninphx]

Looking forward for dates to move Jul/aug 2007. That will take out one unknown factor (so called PWMB) factor out of equation. I feel PWMB number is slightly hyped.

[qesehmk]

Are we expecting the July bulletin this coming Friday?

Yes.

Looking forward for dates to move Jul/aug 2007. That will take out one unknown factor (so called PWMB) factor out of equation. I feel PWMB number is slightly hyped.

suniphx that conclusion can be reached after the dates are past May-Jun 2007 at the least AND 485 inventory is published. Most of the PWMBs are bet Jan-Jul 2007 and the dates are yet to go there.

p.s. - I do not call anybody after Jul 2007 as a PWMB since their PD is post July 2007 fiasco. Then it just becomes the normal demand.

[suninphx]

Yes.


suniphx that conclusion can be reached after the dates are past May-Jun 2007 at the least AND 485 inventory is published. Most of the PWMBs are bet Jan-Jul 2007 and the dates are yet to go there.

p.s. - I do not call anybody after Jul 2007 as a PWMB since their PD is post July 2007 fiasco. Then it just becomes the normal demand.

Q, exactly the point. Hence looking for dates to move to Jul 2007 and ofcourse inventory published.

[veni001]

Just thinking out loud here. I think if we assume that they are moving dates too late in the game for approvals and they don't want to waste visas, the PWMB probably won't be accounted for in this year, no? if this is true, then as a conservative estimate we can still get around 12k (eb1) + 6k(quota) + 6k (eb2) + 5k(eb5) = 29k . so conservatively we should move to around mar/apr 2007 (by end of year). then they are left with only 2-5k from eb2 backlog and maybe around 6k more from pwmb so around 8-10k. So then it's perception game in DOS whether they think they should advance the dates now or wait till later. I feel they move dates by a year or so beyond the max approval date (mar/apr 2007), so mar/apr 2008 by sep 2011 knowing that

1. demand is falling post july 2007 through 2008 before building up a little more in 2009 (as per PERM data)
2. they need to have enough time to build the preadj cases to move them off shelf next jun/jul when this opens up again, knowing that they better give time to USCIS otherwise it'll be chaos again next year and visas will be inevitably wasted if opened late.
3. they need to have a pre-adj pipeline of around 25k cases.

tanu_75,
Which is not true please see PERM Matrix in FACTS AND DATA Section.

[veni001]

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.

Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.


Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

[suninphx]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

Veni001 has a very valid point.