Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?
Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",
I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.
My Situation is this:
I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .
My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.
Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?
regards,
SLOWWIN
slowwin, yours is a porting case (although a bit special since its NIW). But porting so far is not racing ahead nor PWMBs are roaring out of the gate. You are one of the lucky few who managed to convince your employer to file EB2 in this economic environment. So hold your breath. GC for you is just around the corner.
In short there is no such hidden demand anymore.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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slowwin,
Patience is a virtue.
I tend to agree with the interesting analysis here http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...and-quick.html
Further Porting demand within the dates likely to be Current and approvable is likely to be not more than 1.5k.
In fact, the total Porting demand looks like it will be slightly lower than originally predicted and factored into the calculations already.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Q.
My query was based on the assumption that Doctors, Scientists, University Professors etc would go the NIW route(in my anecdotal experience multiple filings for EB1 and EB2 NIW are common).
But apparently not. Thanks for the clarification.
slowwin
Q, if you are considering the IC quota for portings+PWMB then the spillover must be enough to clear the backlog, so why the prediction is not July/Aug2007
I believe that your case should see a faster approval than PWMB's because your 485 is already filed, so once interfiling is completed it would move to the EB2 queue. All the best, Optimistically in Jul and definitely by Aug bulletin you should be current.
My PD is end of July'2008.
Any prediction for when my PD will be current.
Gurus please comment.
Regardless of economy, its still a hassle and a "kaching" to take any legal action for the employer on behalf of employee. Thats the reason we don't see many employers withdrawing I-140. There just isn't enough incentive unless the employee has done something so terrible that the manager wants to pay to hurt the employee. I do not think there is any legal obligation on employer to request cancellation of an existing application if the employee leaves in between.
Basically the 32-36 spillover is for full year. So if you look at oct 2010 inventory (and add 2-3K CP) then that's how far that spillover can take you. Right? Or am I missing something. Pls let me know.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I assumed CP cases are part of inventory and looked at Jan numbers, my mistake
you may get greencard in mar-sep 2013, when you get a chance to file I485 is anybody's guess, pick a random date in between
No worries. I have made the same mistake in the past. Don't know why!!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks guys, for all the calculations and number crunching. It really is very helpful.
Please have a look at this http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...and-quick.html
He has upped the dates quite significantly based on the June inventory but we haven't done so here. I was wondering what you guys think.
Thanks again!!!
Looking at current scenario, i am not sure about green card but there is very good possibility that you will get EAD by sep'2012 with current trend. If dates move to may'07 to june'07 by sep'11, i do not see more than 50k demand between june'07 and july'08. By God's Grace ( touch wood) if uscis want to more fee and reserve numbers, you and I might get EAD my march'2012 but this is entirely based on our luck and uscis fund gathering with win-win situation for both uscis and applicants.
And to get green card itself it might be anywhere between june'2012 to sep'13.
I stopped reading trackitt after some exhaustive posts but After seeing this neat forums i started reading all the posts from various posters. This is very interesting to see how people have different views with same data, some people here are expecting only feb'07 by sep'11 some are projecting july'08 and some other are projecting dates to become current for a month to accomodate more applicants for next year.
From my point of view, looking at the cp mails to 2008 candidates, there is a decent chance for priority dates to reach June/July'08.
CP mails are sent one year in advance, generally. After doing my own analysis and reading meaningless posts on other websites, I have come to the conclusion that a one-stop for an aspiring GC applicant is this site. Heartfelt thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.
It is nearly impossible that dates will move beyond July 2007, we just have to look at pending #s until that date.
Q,
Do you have any updates from your respectful contact please, whose predictions came darn close during June bulletin? It would be interesting to know his/her July predictions for EB-2I.
I think i will check around mid next week. Hopefully he will talk to CO by then. Will post ASAP.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Bidda,
On what basis are you saying this.... Until now 11k slipover is used out of 33k estimated ... That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k... Let's say even of cis doesn't have anymore slipover to apply for cases > July 07... It still has to move forward to generate cases to work on...
Also cis/dos is not going to work on pwmb and porting cases in the last quarter as they won't have enuf time to finish formalities and assign numbers... People > July 07 hang on tight.... We are going to get. a chance to apply for ead soon... Don't get discouraged..
Sorry what i meant was July 2007 not July 2008. But i have a feeling that by 1st quarter of 2012, people who got priority date till May -july 2008 will get a chance to apply for EAD and then dates will retrogress. And if uscis want more application it might even make it current for a month.
Can any one tell if spill over will start in July Bulletin or August.
Last edited by grnwtg; 06-01-2011 at 08:49 AM.
grnwtg this year the spillover already started in Jun. Normally July is when we would see this. So yes, in July we should see more.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
As clarified by few knowledegable folks here.. Once July 2007 is hit, if DOS want to advance dates drastically, they will have to do it in Q4 of FY 2011. In Q1 of FY 2012 the supply (around 230 visas per month) will be less than demand and hence dates cannot be advanced by months/years.
S
You reiterated what I said earlier by quoting, "That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k". I said in my post that dates may not progress beyond July 2007. Both of us were off by 1 month. If you factor in people with FY 2007 priority dates who could not apply during July 2007 fiasco, it will create enough cases for a complete consumption of available visas for this year.
Sorry but I did not want to discourage anyone. We have be cautiously optimistic and more importantly, always realistic.
The interesting thing here is that the demand is spread across several months. Lets assume there are 22K of Spill over left.
The question is how will they know that at what point the demand is met.
Say in June '11 they move it till Feb 07, and find there is still 12K available....
then in July '11 they move it to May 07 and find there is still 4K available....
Come Sept '11 they wouldnt know how many more to take in to meet the left over supply...
Bear in mind they have to log in the documents and reconcile supply and demand in 1 month and I doubt they are that efficient.
Last edited by natvyas; 06-01-2011 at 12:08 PM.
After typing the message I realized that they already have cases submitted....so they know the 90% of demand.
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