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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #1976
    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.
    This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.

  2. #1977
    Yoda
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    Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

    I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

    However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

    Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

    One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

    What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

    Thanks!
    S
    Last edited by skpanda; 05-24-2011 at 02:42 PM. Reason: Included a possible scenario

  3. #1978
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.
    Terrific Job all the gurus. I have been following this thread to educate myself regarding one of the important things in my life AKA GC.
    While we are on this topic, my PD is FEB 2008 and I got an email yesterday from NVC to pay the AOS fees. I checked with my attorney and she said it is because we did leave the option open for CP in case we had to use it while filing I-140. I am not sure what to make out of this as VB date is in OCT 2006, almost 1.5 years to from FEB 2008.

  4. #1979
    Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

    Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

    Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??

  5. #1980
    Quote Originally Posted by ChampU View Post
    Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

    Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

    Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??
    Almost everyone has been predicting that the dates should reach atleast April 2007. You can refer to the facts and data section and also post # 1 from qesehmk for details.

  6. #1981
    FAQ on the Dept of State website say that NVC asks for payment when the date is current or they think it will be in next SEVERAL months.... would assume that several means around a year I guess...
    http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigra...ml#beneficiary
    Last edited by vishnu; 05-24-2011 at 02:58 PM.

  7. #1982
    Quote Originally Posted by leo07 View Post
    100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
    So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

    Best!!
    Leo, I was wearing the same shoes as you did back then....After Masters, first 5 years on H1 - 2 fulltime positions - Life was easy...near the end of H1 got processing done with desi shop.
    I agree 100% with your suggestion to MS grads, If someone gave me the suggestion back then...there would be a 0% chance that I would agree.....
    My Labor was also stuck in Atlanta on 07. Bunch of approvals on trackitt on Aug 15 07, none on Aug 16 and few more+mine on Aug 17 07...will never forget Aug 17!

  8. #1983
    I finished masters in 2005 and waited till 2007 to start GC process..I should have started in 2005 and would have been greened by now..Alas as everyone suggests its never late to start..atleast get GC process going...

  9. #1984
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    Hi Guys,
    Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

  10. #1985
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Yes, you can retain your PD from your earlier approved I140. I am assuming that you haven't submitted your I485 yet (else you could have ported to another similar job using AC21 provisions); in that case, you have to redo your PERM + I140 with your new employer.

  11. #1986
    Quote Originally Posted by cotes_ashish View Post
    Hi Guys,
    Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....
    With a PD which is so close to being current, I would wait until my PD is current or at least Sept. 2011 (whichever is earlier).

  12. #1987
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    Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?

  13. #1988
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    Quote Originally Posted by cotes_ashish View Post
    Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?
    Yes.. you will port your new PERM-I140 to your 2007 PD. In my opinion, if you go this route, your GC-in-hand will be delayed by about 1 year (due to new application).
    All the best!

  14. #1989
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Roughly, this is your scenario: if EB2-I movement is sufficient enough during this year, May'07 PD might be approved by Sep'11; else May'07 PD will be approved sometime during first half of 2012 (also consider that you will need ~4 months from I485 submission). If you join a new job and they start your PERM application right away, then your time line might look like: preparing the PERM application, incl. job ad, etc (4 months); PERM approval (2 - 6 months); I140 approval (15 days w/Premium Processing). So, overall it will take around a year or slightly more than that. In the above scenario, you might also concurrently file for I140 and I485 as it is more likely that your PD will be current by then.

  15. #1990

    Thumbs up I know I'm digressing...

    cotes_ashish, I know I'm digressing from the purpose of this thread. But, I could not resist posting this suggestion for you--Given an option in your situation, I would not venture such a risk at least until I see all of July,Aug & September 2011 bulletins. Since we are so close. I honestly think folks until August 1st 2007 will be able to file for EAD by September 2011.

    Good Luck to all of us.


    Quote Originally Posted by cotes_ashish View Post
    Hi Guys,
    Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

  16. #1991
    Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

  17. #1992
    @soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan... (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

    @Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier

    @ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 .

    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I
    Last edited by haripathhi; 05-24-2011 at 06:44 PM.

  18. #1993
    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I
    Angryclubs: what is the automated line? Do you have the IV links?
    This is great news guys.. hope to file for I485 at least.

  19. #1994
    This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2611476

    NVC Details:
    24-Hour Information
    An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.
    Last edited by angryclubs; 05-24-2011 at 07:11 PM.

  20. #1995
    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2611476

    NVC Details:
    24-Hour Information
    An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

    Thanks for the info.
    I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.

  21. #1996

    Thumbs down

    Quote Originally Posted by ChampU View Post
    Thanks for the info.
    I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.


    Gang of guru's...

    Can we take all this news as a positive sign???? Did it happen anytime in the past that people receive these mails and they get current??

    Please share ur exPeriences guys ..... All the full timers... Ask your respective lawyers what this is all about???
    Last edited by soggadu; 05-24-2011 at 08:14 PM.

  22. #1997

    Lightbulb 200,000 views

    Friends,

    Sometime late today we crossed 200,000 views. I must credit this to numerous people active on this forum who continue to provide valuable pieces of information, churn calculations and provide useful advice to others AND MOST IMPORTANTLY do so in a respectful and friendly manner.

    I think that really is the spirit of this forum. Truly appreciate everybody's support. Earlier it was just one or two or three of us. Now I see quite a few doing their own work and contributing. So can't really name everybody and so I will just rest it at that.

    Thanks and Hope for the best for this year!!

    p.s. - I especially want to thanks 3 folks on this forum who act as administrators in addition to contributing to forums. But since some of them probably want to keep it private, I will not name them. But do want to thank them SPECIAL.
    Last edited by qesehmk; 05-24-2011 at 09:16 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #1998
    Quote Originally Posted by haripathhi View Post
    @soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan... (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

    @Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier

    @ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 .
    dude...i am waiting for the good news as much .... lets hope for the best and leave the rest...

  24. #1999
    Guru veni001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Veni,

    I don't quite agree with those figures.

    SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
    The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
    DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

    It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

    My figures are :

    -FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
    2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
    2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
    2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262

    Spec,
    Thanks for the clarification.

  25. #2000
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    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

    I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

    However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

    Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

    One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

    What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

    Thanks!
    S
    skpanda,
    If USCIS/DOS would like to take have more applications at hand by making EB2I&C current,they can do it at any time! Since USCIS got more visibility into EB2I&C demand and also coordinating with DOS on a regular basis to set the cutoff dates, i don't think this is a possibility!

    Coming to your VISA wastage question, i think as long as they have more VISAs available than pre-adjudicated cases(chances are minimal) on hand in Q4 they could spill those into EB3.

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