EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Sunny.]

And I forgot .....you guys are really doing a tremendous job of analyizing the visa numbers though I would like to see a text field where I could just enter my priority and boom you guys can predict when my dates will be current..... :-)....wishful thinking....:-)

[qesehmk]

Q,
I would be interested in views as to why FY2011 (EB2-ROW) would see a drastic slowdown compared to FY2010.

Spec here is why. Look at following ROW EB2 data from trackit.
485 pending - 228
140 pending - 98
labor pending - 27 (Atlanta 0, chicago 27).

At 1:40 ratio for EB2ROW this is about 14K total.

What does this pipeline tell you? It tells that people who already were in the pipeline are being pushed ahead but new replenishment is low (or fast approvals). Even if they are fast approvals only 57 were approved in last 2 months compared to full year 2010 at 550. So 57 is hardly 10% in 2 months (i.e. 60% in 2011 as compared to 2010). So we will see 40% less EB2 demand in 2011. Couple that with fact that EB2 last year gave us at least 10-15K SOFAD even when there was high demand. So 60% of 25K would be 15K demand (exactly whats in the pipeline). That gives 14K fall across. Add EB1 FD 6K + IC quota 6K. Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.

Now if for some reason EB4/5/1 deliver more then that's upside.

[Spectator]

Spec here is why. Look at following ROW EB2 data from trackit.
485 pending - 228
140 pending - 98
labor pending - 27 (Atlanta 0, chicago 27).

At 1:40 ratio for EB2ROW this is about 14K total.

What does this pipeline tell you? It tells that people who already were in the pipeline are being pushed ahead but new replenishment is low (or fast approvals). Even if they are fast approvals only 57 were approved in last 2 months compared to full year 2010 at 550. So 57 is hardly 10% in 2 months (i.e. 60% in 2011 as compared to 2010). So we will see 40% less EB2 demand in 2011. Couple that with fact that EB2 last year gave us at least 10-15K SOFAD even when there was high demand. So 60% of 25K would be 15K demand (exactly whats in the pipeline). That gives 14K fall across. Add EB1 FD 6K + IC quota 6K. Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.

Now if for some reason EB4/5/1 deliver more then that's upside.

Q,

I tend to look at primary applicants only and the ratio for those is 45.

To date this fiscal year, there are 98 EB2/EB2-NIW I-485 approvals in Trackitt, which equates to 4,475 actual approvals. Prorated, that equates to 24,379 approvals in a full year.

In addition, there are 102 pending I-485 from 2009 to the end of FY2010, which potentially equates to a further 4,658 approvals. If they are approved over the next 2 months, then the prorated approvals for the year becomes 27,399.
Trackitt has never been a good source for PERM data, certainly not for ROW.

The last 2 months of I-485 approvals only represent part of applications that started life in FY2010 or earlier but will be approved in FY2011. None of the approvals to date were submitted in FY2011. There are 8 months worth of applications that will be submitted and approved in FY2011.

SOFAD was higher last year because the ROW approvals contained a proportion of applications submitted in FY2009, when applications were particularly low. They accounted for 4.5k of approvals, whilst FY2010 submitted applications accounted for 20k of the total of 24.5k.

FY2011 does not have that effect, as applications at the end of FY2010 were high, judging by the PERM and USCIS dashboard data.

I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.

As you can see, I am using the same source of data as you, yet reaching an entirely different conclusion.

I just think it is too early to draw meaningful conclusions based on Trackitt data - we are only two months into the FY. After 6 months, possibly.

[qesehmk]

Spec
that's fine. Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.

Regarding primary vs secondary applicants .... that kind of differentiation doesn't help at all. If any it makes it less accurate. Think about it.

Q,

I tend to look at primary applicants only and the ratio for those is 45.

To date this fiscal year, there are 98 EB2/EB2-NIW I-485 approvals in Trackitt, which equates to 4,475 actual approvals. Prorated, that equates to 24,379 approvals in a full year.

In addition, there are 102 pending I-485 from 2009 to the end of FY2010, which potentially equates to a further 4,658 approvals. That would bring the total to 29,037 approvals for the year.

Trackitt has never been a good source for PERM data, certainly not for ROW.

The last 2 months of I-485 approvals only represent part of applications that started life in FY2010 or earlier but will be approved in FY2011. None of the approvals to date were submitted in FY2011. There are 8 months worth of FY2011 applications that can be approved in FY2011.

SOFAD was higher last year because the ROW approvals contained a proportion of applications submitted in FY2009, when applications were particularly low. They accounted for 4.5k of approvals, whilst FY2010 submitted applications accounted for 20k of the total of 24.5k.

FY2011 does not have that effect, as applications at the end of FY2010 were high, judging by the PERM and USCIS dashboard data.

I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.

As you can see, I am using the same source of data as you, yet reaching an entirely different conclusion.

I just think it is too early to draw meaningful conclusions based on Trackitt data - we are only two months into the FY. After 6 months, possibly.

[qesehmk]

sunny welcome to blog. What you suggest is on my to-do-list but may be 6 months from now. Sorry.

And I forgot .....you guys are really doing a tremendous job of analyizing the visa numbers though I would like to see a text field where I could just enter my priority and boom you guys can predict when my dates will be current..... :-)....wishful thinking....:-)

[Spectator]

Spec
that's fine. Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.

Regarding primary vs secondary applicants .... that kind of differentiation doesn't help at all. If any it makes it less accurate. Think about it.

Q,

26k SOFAD is my most optimistic figure. If pressed, I think it will be lower than that, probably no more than 20k.

Use of Primary only data from Trackitt makes the calculation far more accurate.

Entry of Dependants on Trackitt is extremely spotty, inconsistent and does not represent the actual 2.1 total ratio for EB2 (i.e 1.1 Dependants per Primary applicant).

As an example, for FY2009, Trackitt for all EB2, shows 1,469 Primary approvals and just 136 Dependant approvals. In fact, there were 22,098 Primary Approvals and 23,454 Dependent approvals for EB2 in FY2009 (DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2009).

By using only Primary data, the proper % of c. 3.22% can be calculated. The same applies to subsets of the data such as ROW.

If you take Primary and Dependant data from Trackitt, you can not be sure of the % factor to use, since entry of Dependant data is not consistent. Only Primary cases are reliable.

[bieber]

Q,
regardless of certified/certified+expired confusion, do u see the dates moving to June2007 by Jul-Sep 2011?
I think the confusion is only about what happens for future applications

[bieber]

is there any mistake in Ron's numbers? FY2009 really gave only 10,000 EB2I approvals?

[leo07]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525

December 2010 Demand Data:


January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850

[leo07]

EB2I could grab only 25 visas with PD's in 2006, out of possible 300. Does it mean that the remaining 275 were consumed by EB3-EB2 upgrades?

[qesehmk]

That's a good logical conclusion.

EB2I could grab only 25 visas with PD's in 2006, out of possible 300. Does it mean that the remaining 275 were consumed by EB3-EB2 upgrades?

[leo07]

This is both gloomy and bright at the same time...
gloomy: EB3-EB2 upgrades consumed 275 off 300 visas
bright : They consumed only 275. Leaving some hope. If they were to consume all, we'd never know the end of line. I'm sure it's too early to assume the end of Eb3-EB2 upgrade.

In the worst case, however is that the 25 that we assumed direct EB2, are in fact really upgrades, but from a 2006 bucket

[qesehmk]

pls note ... this data doesn't represent all of 485 backlog. This is probably 90% of total 485 backlog. This data is all documentarily qualified candidates that are ready to go green but are waiting for visa availability.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525

December 2010 Demand Data:


January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850

[leo07]

Absolutely. However, we could consider 33,275 * 1.1 as EB2IC demand(present + possible 485's) before 2008 to get to a total EB2 demand for 2011.
Like, with addition of Porting + percentage(x %) of approved PERM apps for a 12 month window

Please feel free to correct me here.

[balac76]

This 33,850 might be applications upto April 2007 since April candidates would have got the labor approval in 4-5 months as per trackitt and would have dont concurrent filing. Since May 2007 count is unknown. Please correct me if my understanding is wrong.

Seniors, any thoughts when 2009 applications will come into picture? 2013 to be conservative?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2:
Before January 1, 2007 = 18,025
Before January 1, 2008 = 33,275
Before January 1, 2010 = 33,525

December 2010 Demand Data:


January 1, 2006 = 100
January 1, 2007 = 18,200
January 1, 2008 = 33,500
January 1, 2010 = 33,850

[qesehmk]

Absolutely. However, we could consider 33,275 * 1.1 as EB2IC demand(present + possible 485's) before 2008 to get to a total EB2 demand for 2011.
Like, with addition of Porting + percentage(x %) of approved PERM apps for a 12 month window

Please feel free to correct me here.

That's fine. Approximation is fine too. As long as people understand that what demand data shows is different from 485 inventory. Funnily demand data should also include in theory the CP demand whereas 485 inventory wouldnt include it.

So in theory demand data could be higher than 485 inventory. But of course it never is.

[qesehmk]

That's why we coined the term PWMB. Its hard to say since what date that is true because for many people it would be different. However what we have established in the past is that that number is 7% of 485 filed in 2007.

As per 2009 ... 2013 sounds reasonable.

This 33,850 might be applications upto April 2007 since April candidates would have got the labor approval in 4-5 months as per trackitt and would have dont concurrent filing. Since May 2007 count is unknown. Please correct me if my understanding is wrong.

Seniors, any thoughts when 2009 applications will come into picture? 2013 to be conservative?

[Spectator]

Thats about 26K. That's not terribly great. But not bad! That should take dates through Feb 07.

I actually have said that c. 26k SOFAD is possible, but I think that it will only allow progress to the end of December 2006 once CP, Porting and PWMB cases are factored in.

Spec
Its interesting that we both are projecting similar SOFAD but coming to different conclusions. I think I am including CP PWMB and porting but I will recheck.

Q,

I've continued to think about why we would arrive at different dates for the same SOFAD figure.

I calculate in a similar, yet different manner to you.

How do you factor in Porting when arriving at a forward projection?

Looking at your spreadsheet, it occurred to me that the 4k Porting cases should (might) be shown as new demand for FY2011, yet IC (mainly India I think) shows zero demand.

That would account for the difference between December 2006 and February 2007, since there are 4,196 USCIS I & C cases for Jan/Feb 2007.

It may be a coincidence. I'm just throwing ideas out for you to consider.

[qesehmk]

Q,

I've continued to think about why we would arrive at different dates for the same SOFAD figure.

I calculate in a similar, yet different manner to you.

How do you factor in Porting when arriving at a forward projection?

Looking at your spreadsheet, it occurred to me that the 4k Porting cases should (might) be shown as new demand for FY2011, yet IC (mainly India I think) shows zero demand.

That would account for the difference between December 2006 and February 2007, since there are 4,196 USCIS I & C cases for Jan/Feb 2007.

It may be a coincidence. I'm just throwing ideas out for you to consider.

No . I have assumed demand inbult into the backlog. Thats the reason the backlog numberss won't exactly match with the ones published by USCIS. I have asssumed pwmb at 7% for entire backlog for each month.

[Spectator]

No . I have assumed demand inbult into the backlog. Thats the reason the backlog numberss won't exactly match with the ones published by USCIS. I have asssumed pwmb at 7% for entire backlog for each month.

Q.

I thought so, otherwise the backlog you use for EB2-IC couldn't be so high.

Let me try to explain why I think it only clears to the end of December 2006.

One figure we can absolutely agree on is the number of EB2-IC application shown in the Oct 1,2010 USCIS Inventory.

That is 11,404 for China and 24,254 for India - a total of 35,658.

In a world where that represented the entire EB2 world, with no approvals outside of that Inventory, SOFAD of 26,000 would move the PD to the end of March 2007, which requires 26,368 visas.

To move to the end of December 2006 requires 20,135 visas and to the end of February 2007 requires 24,331 visas.


However, not every approval affects this USCIS total, since the EB2 universe also includes CP approvals and new approvals in FY2011 due to Porting, PWMB and District Office cases. None of these cases are included in the Oct 1, 2010 totals.

So the USCIS Inventory does not, in reality, reduce by 26,000. My figures allow for 4,000 Porting Cases and 2,227 other cases due to the other reasons - a total of 6,227.

Therefore the USCIS Inventory will actually only reduce by 26,000 - 6,227 = 19,773. That is enough to nearly clear December 2006, but 4,558 too few too clear February 2007.

If you want to look at it using the backlog, then 35,658 + 6,227 = 41,885 (similar to yours).

However the amount of visas required to reach a particular PD has also increased, so it now needs 20,135 + 6,227 = to clear December 2006 and 24,331 + 6,227 = 30,558 to clear February 2007.

I hope that explanation helps you in resolving the discrepancy.

As a PS, I looked back at Teddy's figures. He calculated that to reach the end of :

December 2006 needed 25,909 visas
February 2007 needed 31,705 visas

Month-Year India China PDPorting PWMB CP+LocalOffice Total Monthly Cumulative Sum
Dec-06 1,865 768 500 200 100 3,433 25,909
Feb-07 1,431 594 500 200 100 2,825 31,705

so that is roughly in line with my figures of 26,362 & 30,558 respectively.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I will look into this and respond but unfortunately I am off to a 2 week bus trip. So until then you Teddy and others hold the lines!!

Q.

I thought so, otherwise the backlog you use for EB2-IC couldn't be so high.

Let me try to explain why I think it only clears to the end of December 2006.

One figure we can absolutely agree on is the number of EB2-IC application shown in the Oct 1,2010 USCIS Inventory.

That is 11,404 for China and 24,254 for India - a total of 35,658.

In a world where that represented the entire EB2 world, with no approvals outside of that Inventory, SOFAD of 26,000 would move the PD to the end of March 2007, which requires 26,368 visas.

To move to the end of December 2006 requires 20,135 visas and to the end of February 2007 requires 24,331 visas.


However, not every approval affects this USCIS total, since the EB2 universe also includes CP approvals and new approvals in FY2011 due to Porting, PWMB and District Office cases. None of these cases are included in the Oct 1, 2010 totals.

So the USCIS Inventory does not, in reality, reduce by 26,000. My figures allow for 4,000 Porting Cases and 2,227 other cases due to the other reasons - a total of 6,227.

Therefore the USCIS Inventory will actually only reduce by 26,000 - 6,227 = 19,773. That is enough to nearly clear December 2006, but 4,558 too few too clear February 2007.

If you want to look at it using the backlog, then 35,658 + 6,227 = 41,885 (similar to yours).

However the amount of visas required to reach a particular PD has also increased, so it now needs 20,135 + 6,227 = 26,362 to clear December 2006 and 24,331 + 6,227 = 30,558 to clear February 2007.

I hope that explanation helps you in resolving the discrepancy.

[Spectator]

Spec

I will look into this and respond but unfortunately I am off to a 2 week bus trip. So until then you Teddy and others hold the lines!!

Q,

Pleasure I hope!

Hope you have a great time.

Teddy seems to be away as well.

PS I am starting to understand your Current-Current argument as it affects EB2-ROW. I haven't integrated it into my thinking completely yet and how it relates to the published I-140 data. I am certainly learning a lot about the PERM system. I am finding it quite educational and I still have a lot to learn and understand.

[GlimmerOfHope]

Here is my first post. Well done with the analysis.

Is any of you guys considering a a EB3-ROW to EB2-ROW porting at all in your calculations? If not that number could eat away the spill across in 4th Qtr.

I just see the EB3-EB2 porting included but is it only EB3I-EB2I or row included.

[Spectator]

Here is my first post. Well done with the analysis.

Is any of you guys considering a a EB3-ROW to EB2-ROW porting at all in your calculations? If not that number could eat away the spill across in 4th Qtr.

I just see the EB3-EB2 porting included but is it only EB3I-EB2I or row included.

That is an extremely astute question.

I can only speak personally.

I am allowing 4k TOTAL EB3-EB2 Porting cases from all nationalities.

I think they will be almost entirely Indian cases.

The reason I say that is:

a) EB3-India Cut Off Date is far earlier than EB3-ROW.

EB3-ROW will probably clear the backlog to August 2007 in 2 years, as long as there is not too much "invisible demand", so the pressure to Port is much less. If EB3-ROW Cut Off date moves forward more slowly than expected this year, then maybe the pressure will increase, but it won't affect this year.

b) EB3-ROW is not so heavily concentrated in the Consulting business model as India.

I get the impression that it harder for EB3-ROW to find either existing or new Employers willing to start the process for an EB2 PERM and I-140. Almost all the talk about Porting on other forums such as Trackitt is by EB3-I.

China. as always, remains a complete unknown.

I'm sure Q and Teddy will also give their views when they return.

[parsvnath]

Hi Q, Spec and Teddy

I am a big fan (to be honest) for this thread for facilitating meaningful discussion and keeping people's hope alive wrt GC. I am a new member and have been following this thread from Immigration Voice days. Keep up the good spirit and discussions.

Coming to my question....Is there a meaningful explanation for the below discrepancy for EB2 India 485 report. As you can see below (exlcuing May 2006 where there is a huge difference between may and oct reports which is due to partial approvals from start of the year), the oct report is consistently less in number during Oct report compared to May report except May 2007 and June 2007 where Oct Report is higher than May Report. Excluding May 2006, in net there are 470 fewer cases in oct report compared to May report for EB2 India. if porting is happening, this should be otherway around. Unless i am missing something fundamentally wrong (which i don;t think i am), this seems pretty weird for me.

Oct report May Report
1-May 1058 1398 340
1-Jun 1629 1677 48
1-Jul 1494 1538 44
1-Aug 1644 1662 18
1-Sep 1683 1702 19
1-Oct 1703 1729 26
1-Nov 1691 1746 55
1-Dec 1865 1887 22
Jan-07 1505 1528 23
Feb-07 1431 1447 16
Mar-07 1353 1377 24
Apr-07 1370 1394 24
May-07 1123 1043 -80
Jun-07 1307 1296 -11
Jul-07 1518 1747 229
Aug-07 202 215 13