EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Gclongwait]

7k seems a bit too much. Even if we equally divide 7K between Apr, May, June , July of '07 that would mean we need to add ~1700 for each month, that would mean each of these months would have had nearly 3K or more filings if there were instantaneous Perm approvals.
Not a single month for entire 2006 or mid 2007 has more than 1881 filings (Dec 2006). I don't think anything would move that far from the mean. I think July 2007 would be the max since many people would have hurried up and filed after seeing it go current. From my personal experience I remember that my company's (at that time) lawyers were prioiritizing I-485's over perms.

Before someone corrects me, let me correct myself. 7K would be both India & China. Dividing this as 2K China and 5k India , it would still be more than ~2200 filings per mnth for India. Still way above the norm.

[bieber]

gclongwait

may be Spec's 7k number includes dependents. I mean around 3.4k perms will translate into 7k 485s

[leo07]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.

[Spectator]

To avoid any confusion, 7k is both China and India and does include Dependants at 1.1 additional Dependants per primary I-140 approval.

The number was derived from the % of PERM approvals with Jan-Jul 2007 Priority Dates and the known I-485 backlog.

That % was then applied to the number of PERM with Jan-Jul 2007 PD that were approved after July 2007.

Whilst it is actually 7k for Jan-Jul 2007, the highest concentration is in May-Jul 2007. The actual figures are in posts earlier in this thread.

[TeddyKoochu]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

Leo I did not know that most of the PWMB case generated from Atlanta mine also went there. With regards PWMB's there is a 20% chance that we may get a chance to file for 485 this year but chances of getting GC maybe only if they are able to attach a case number to our cases. Else we may have to wait right till May - Jul 2012 just to file for 485. I think we can only pray, this year for the dates to reach Jul - Aug 2007 this year is a little bit of stretch and diving required at the end its not impossible.

[veni001]

Before someone corrects me, let me correct myself. 7K would be both India & China. Dividing this as 2K China and 5k India , it would still be more than ~2200 filings per month for India. Still way above the norm.

Gclongwait,
2007 got highest number of PERM approvals all across the board!

[hoping4thebest]

I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue .
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect Uscis to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applicaations - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.

Leo I did not know that most of the PWMB case generated from Atlanta mine also went there. With regards PWMB's there is a 20% chance that we may get a chance to file for 485 this year but chances of getting GC maybe only if they are able to attach a case number to our cases. Else we may have to wait right till May - Jul 2012 just to file for 485. I think we can only pray, this year for the dates to reach Jul - Aug 2007 this year is a little bit of stretch and diving required at the end its not impossible.

[leo07]

I really feel bad for you guys.
...i only wish I had not been that idealistic ...

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

[veni001]

I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue .
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect USCIS to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applications - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.

hoping4thebest,
Based on what USCIS/DOS have done last year with F2A, there is always possibility, even this year, for EB2I&C advance by an year before retrogress back to April/May 2007 (assuming our predictions are in-line).

[qesehmk]

I agree w you both. Additionally I also feel that joining companies like Infy TCS Wipro.. is not such a bad idea because they no longer are sweat shops. I sometimes get to interact with these companies since they are current or prospective vendors and what I see is that people my age and experience there are running a shop of 1000 2000 people. These companies are fast moving up the value chain into consulting. So joining them after your US MS/MBA isn't such a bad idea!

I really feel bad for you guys.
I have been in the US for 10 years but delayed starting my GC since I wanted to do it with a good employer of my choice. i only wish I had not been that idealistic and had been visiting forums like this one to understand the retrogression issue .
Now with a PD of Jan' 09, I have a long way to go.

Question - when the PD eventually reaches July-Aug 2007 (which looks like mostly next FY), is it realistic to expect Uscis to at least open the gates to around 6-9 months beyond July 2007 to build the inventory of applicaations - otherwise how exactly can they manage approving applications in an orderly FIFO manner (per INA) considering their I485processing timeline and other factors? This is if they do not make the PD "current" after reaching July-Aug 2007 which I somehow feel the DoS/USCIS does not want to after their Summer of 2007 experience.
Getting GC is a far way along for me so I am at least hoping for some full or partial floodgate opening so I can at least get an EAD/AP. Trying to figure out when we can expect something like that to happen.

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

[vishnu]

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

[pravara]

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

[imechanix]

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

Thanks Leo. That makes sense, my perm was also approved from Atlanta. Hope we get a chance to file I485 this year.

[skpanda]

Same case here...

Been in US for 6 years. Had oppurtunity to file GC in 2006 and 2008 with two different employers (full time positions)... did not file in 2006.. since i was not sure if I wanted to stay in US. In 2008, I was not sure if I would have continued with the same employer for that long.

Now I have a PD of Dec 2010 with a new employer (full time position) and really got serious with GC to get the 7th year extension.

I was not active in these kind of forums and am facing the consequences. I wish I had filed in 2006 and done the PD porting now. Would have had GC in hand by now.

As it appears, I will have to wait atleast until 2014 even to get the EAD. God knows about GC.. may be in 2015 or 2016. Not sure if I want to stay in US that long.. but atleast my PD is locked... just in case...

Anyways... Best of luck to all you folks!
S

--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

[veni001]

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052

[ifaith]

Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?

i must say that soggadu really brought a very good point forward that PWMB can't be prcessed this year. There is no chance for them now.

So that creates an upside of 4K (approx) and make mar-apr 2007 a much more certainty than before. So even if ROW delivers zero. There is a very good possibility that the dates could move into early 2007 regardless of ROW EB2 SOFAD.

[qesehmk]

ifaith, the dates could move in a jerky manner between now and Oct 2011. But after that the date will settle and stay there until Q4 in 2012. As of now my guess is that the dates should move upto Mar-Apr 2007. Now assuming that's what happens. Then while the dates are settled, the PWMBs that have their date current will be processed. However the processing will take its usual time of around 3-9 months after filing 485.

Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?

[Spectator]

vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052

Veni,

I don't quite agree with those figures.

SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

My figures are :

-FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262

[buzzguy]

I am new member here. Q, your comments are very impressive. My PD is around June 2008. What you guys think, when it will become current.
Any chance of happening this year? Or when should I expect some movements?

[soggadu]

I read on trackitt that a guy with PD 2007 June has got mail from NVC to pay $$ for CP... Looks like the dates might move further than our assumptions...

[soggadu]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

[mpurna77]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

.

8-9 months of wait is with present estimate of demand. by dates moving further forward not sure how demand data will be, for sure most of the forums and analysis expect it should move to Apr-May 2007 by FY 2011. we can all expect and better analyze after July VB is released, coz it can give better picture of Spillover.

[shaumack]

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

From the same site that quotes above, it also says

"Please note that NVC sending mail is solely based on the assumption that projected demand would reap in 8-9 months. It does not guarantee that projected demand will be representative of actual demand"

Just adding this for completeness. This can come true as long as USCIS will not see PWMB demand. Once they will see that demand things might slow down little. I just hope that EB2I/C should make as big leap as possible in September 2011.

[ChampU]

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

[gcwait2007]

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.