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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #1726
    Quote Originally Posted by anuran View Post
    There s something fishy about those who claim NVC collected fee from them till Nov. As far as I could gather, one or two reported on imminfo that they got an email requesting fee from NVC and that their PD is in June 2007. That November stuff comes out from some other forum and is as I said 'fishy'...

    Edit: I now see that haripatthi is clarified the same. That is just about it.
    http://mail.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

    I agree it is just mentioned with no formal evidence... We still do have people with PD 07 07 getting the nvc mails... I am pretty sure i read some where a guy got the email for 11 07 but i am not able to find it now...

    Proof for person with Oct 2007 getting nvc email...

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...licants-2.html
    Last edited by soggadu; 05-13-2011 at 03:15 PM.

  2. #1727
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Spec the key in what you are proposing is generate realistic demand required for next one year.

    So what is realistic demand? It certainly isn't 3K for EB2I. (and by the way .... teh demand is always more than 3K. Its really supply we are talking about).

    In my opinion I would remove the need to be current in order to file 485. This way let everybody file 485 and then when they become current they get a GC. USCIS / DOS have perfect visibility and keep collecting cool fees and applicant is happy.

    Now realistically .... I think they would do better to move date by 1 year every year at the least in Sep followed by retrogression. However my advice really be to make everything current in Sep and then retrogress in Oct. But you are right that is such an outrageous thing .. that it almost violates the law rather than bend or go around it.
    Q,

    Yes when I said demand, I meant it in the sense of Demand that DOS could see for the Supply of visas it might have to allocate by the end of the FY. Supply if you like in your terminology. I see the Supply as being the Supply of available visa numbers and Demand being who wants to use them.

    I don't think DOS can be outrageous, but somewhere in or towards the end of 2008 would probably generate 30-40k extra applications.

    I tried to suggest something that was "doable" and that DOS might realistically consider.

    Making it Current would be fantastic, but I think it falls outside those boundaries.

    Forget the income aspect. That mostly goes to USCIS, since 98% of EB-IC cases are AOS and I don't think DOS particularly cares about that.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  3. #1728

    EB2 ROW trackitt pending cases

    There are 173 cases pending in trackitt for EB2 ROW in the I-485 tracker that have been filed after Sept 30, 2010. Only 107 cases have been approved. I would say chances of any spillover are remote in this case.

  4. #1729
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Teddy, Bieber, Q, Veni,

    ---------------------------------
    ---------------------------------

    4) Spillover gets allocated in July to September and the September Cut Off date is advanced sufficiently to generate the next year's Demand, safe in the knowledge that none of the later applications will be ripe for adjudication within the current FY.

    5) Rinse and repeat each year.


    -------------------------------------
    -------------------------------------
    What to you think?

    How would you tackle it?
    Spec,
    Holding the data in hand i would think that is what USCIS must be coordinating with DOS in their monthly updates to set the cutoff dates!

    But in reality looking at May/June VB language regarding VISA availability, they are still in a state of confusion!
    Last edited by veni001; 05-13-2011 at 05:56 PM.

  5. #1730
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    There are 173 cases pending in trackitt for EB2 ROW in the I-485 tracker that have been filed after Sept 30, 2010. Only 107 cases have been approved. I would say chances of any spillover are remote in this case.
    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Spec/ Veni,

    What is your final say on EB2 ROW-M-P spillover to EB2 IC? Thanks.
    gcwait2007,
    I wouldn't bet more then 4.0 k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point!

  6. #1731
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    gcwait2007,
    I wouldn't bet more then 4.0 k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point!
    I am confused with your post. You said 18% decrease by comparing Trackit and then another analysis, over all 10% decrease.

    Last year, it was about 10K Fall Across. Why it would go down considerably, if there is decrease? Thankful if you share your thoughts.

  7. #1732
    Folks, I guess there was some talk about this : http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...o-pay-794-spam

    *If* this is true, I would assume that these guys have a good chance of getting a GC (i.e July-Oct 2007 PD's). So would it be far to expect that if DOS is looking at Oct 2007 for CP, USCIS may ask for some dates beyond Oct 2007 for I-485 as buffer for next year? So 2008 is quite possible? Major extrapolation but wanted to get thoughts on what DOS and USCIS maybe thinking right now.

  8. #1733
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    I am confused with your post. You said 18% decrease by comparing Trackit and then another analysis, over all 10% decrease.

    Last year, it was about 10K Fall Across. Why it would go down considerably, if there is decrease? Thankful if you share your thoughts.
    gcwait2007,
    Here are my reasons to be conservative with ROW-M-P this year...
    1. Yes, YoY ROW PERMs showing about 18% reduction based on 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM
    2. Same-time 2011 PW data show 5% increase in overall EB2 requests.
    3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!
    4. Which means about 3.33k EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs per quarter
    5. About 10.0k EB2ROW-M-P i485s pending as of 10-01-2010
    6. Trackitt shows more than 100% EB2ROW-M-P usage as of May 2011 when compared to FY2010
    Last edited by veni001; 05-14-2011 at 12:01 AM. Reason: typo

  9. #1734
    3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!

    I have to disagree with this. Denial increase in EB1 is too recent for any one to move to EB2. Moreover, Except from India & China, people from rest of the nationals will not have any enthusiasm to go for EB1 instead of EB2 as it is always current for them and this might be the case for many years. Rest of them (from India & China) little if any, moving into EB2 will not impact as they will be at the end of the queue.

  10. #1735
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    gcwait2007,
    Here are my reasons to be conservative with ROW-M-P this year...
    1. Yes, YoY ROW PERMs showing about 18% reduction based on 2001(Q1+Q2) PERM
    2. Same-time 2011 PW data show 5% increase in overall EB2 requests.3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!
    4. Which means about 3.33k EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs per quarter
    5. About 10.0k EB2ROW-M-P i485s pending as of 10-01-2010
    6. Trackitt shows more than 100% EB2ROW-M-P usage as of May 2011 when compared to FY2010
    I am aware that we do not have any other source to determine eb2/eb3 percentage but I have a feeling that we are relying too much on PW data. We would know in few months.
    In any case , keep on great work guys! I almost stopped going to other forums as none of the posts there are backed up with solid data like you guys do here!

  11. #1736
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    Quote Originally Posted by nayekal View Post
    3. EB1 Effect - Otherwise would have filed in EB1 cases are in EB2 now!

    I have to disagree with this. Denial increase in EB1 is too recent for any one to move to EB2. Moreover, Except from India & China, people from rest of the nationals will not have any enthusiasm to go for EB1 instead of EB2 as it is always current for them and this might be the case for many years. Rest of them (from India & China) little if any, moving into EB2 will not impact as they will be at the end of the queue.
    nayekal,
    Please refer to i140 demand data at the following link
    http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...CREDIT-to-VENI
    You will notice that EB1 decrease actually started in FY2010


    Also another misconception is EB1 demand is purely from IND & China.

    See below for EB1 consumption history for India & China for the past 6 yrs , It is averaging about 5.0k per country per year!

    EB1 INDIA i-485 approvals
    2005 -6,336
    2006 - 3,156
    2007 - 2,855
    2008 - 5,326
    2009 - 6,672
    2010 - 6,741
    Total = 31,086

    EB1 CHINA i-485 approvals
    2005 -6,422
    2006 - 3,278
    2007 - 2,982
    2008 - 5,602
    2009 - 4,999
    2010 - 6,741
    Total = 30,024

    5.0k is about 12.5% of EB1 annual quota or 25% combining EB1(I&C), which means Historically 75% EB1 is being utilized by ROW-M-P only!

  12. #1737
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    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    I am aware that we do not have any other source to determine eb2/eb3 percentage but I have a feeling that we are relying too much on PW data. We would know in few months.
    In any case , keep on great work guys! I almost stopped going to other forums as none of the posts there are backed up with solid data like you guys do here!
    suninphx,
    Welcome and thank you!
    PW data is only one variable out of several. I agree it is keeping our prediction conservative.

  13. #1738
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    5.0k is about 12.5% of EB1 annual quota or 25% combining EB1(I&C), which means Historically 75% EB1 is being utilized by ROW-M-P only!
    Veni,

    While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

    gcw07
    Last edited by gcwait2007; 05-14-2011 at 09:02 AM.

  14. #1739
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Veni,

    While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

    gcw07
    gcw07,
    I agree with you, thing started changing since the economy went south!

  15. #1740
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    Eb1-row

    Quote Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
    Veni,

    While I would likely to concur your rationing of 75% EB1 being used by ROW-M-P, they are mostly from EB1C category. I know some guys coming from Mexico or some asian countries, as Senior Chef / Senior Manager of Fresh Food operations of Restaurants for annual salary of 36K and getting GC once they are qualified. They fulfill all the criteria of EB1C otherwise. They have many people reporting to them and they are vested with decision making powers of running the day-to-day business. Of course, the ratio of such people are less. This is one example. They may not be qualified now in EB2 and may end up in EB3 category.

    gcw07
    I don't agree with this statement at all. It is a sweeping generalization.

    The world is far larger than Asia or Mexico.

    Scientists, for example from Europe, Russia and Japan use EB1A & B.

    I too know non Indian or Chinese EB1s, none of whom are EB1C and all are more than qualified for EB2.

    The advantage of EB1 to both the applicant and, for EB1B the employer, is the lack of the expensive and time consuming LC stage.

    Having looked through the AAO appeals decisions for EB1A and EB1B in the past, there is no evidence that ROW do not use those categories quite extensively.

    I would be surprised if the ratio differs much from the overall 20:20:60 ratio.

    Based on known FY2010 figures for EB1, there were 6,340 primary I-140 approvals for EB1A /B.

    Using the above ratio gives 15,850 total primary EB1 I-140 approvals including EB1C.

    For simplicity's sake, let's say they turned into the 41,026 EB1 I-485 approvals.

    In FY2010, EB1-ROW-M-P represented 67.14% of the total EB1 I-485 approvals or 27,544.

    Working back, 40% of those is 11,018 EB1-ROW-M-P EB1A/B I-485 approvals, even if you discount any EB1C applicants having the qualifications/experience to apply under EB2.

    As for Mexico, they represented just 6.66% of the ROW-M-P total for all EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2010.

    It's not a precise calculation, but close enough to make the point.

    Whether, large numbers of failed EB1 applicants are applying under EB2 is an entirely different question. The effects of USCIS sweeping interpretation of Kazarian may not have been evident for long enough to have a significant effect yet.
    Last edited by Spectator; 05-14-2011 at 12:11 PM.
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  16. #1741
    Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni & Other Contributors,

    Thanks for all the great work and keep it up. Your work benefits us, keeps us grounded and not jump into wild suggestions of getting GC at a sooner timeframe and most importantly helps us plan our future ( investments, family needs, career etc.,).

    Glad that Q started this forum and extremely glad that all like minds joined hands and this forum is such a force now. Good luck to you guys who will be greened soon. I like all other viewers visit the forum 2-3 times a day and am confident that soon I ( and other viewers) will be able to contribute as well

    Thanks again folks.

  17. #1742
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    FY2010 DHS Yearbook Statistics

    I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

    Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

    EB1

    EB1A --- 25.17%
    EB1B --- 23.31%
    EB1C --- 51.52%
    Total - 100.00%


    The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

    EB2

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.

    EB3

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.

    The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/...ons/LPR10.shtm

    Table 7 contains the information above.
    Last edited by Spectator; 05-15-2011 at 07:34 AM.
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  18. #1743
    Spec

    Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html



    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

    Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

    EB1

    EB1A --- 25.17%
    EB1B --- 23.31%
    EB1C --- 51.52%
    Total - 100.00%


    The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

    EB2

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.

    EB3

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.

    The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/...ons/LPR10.shtm

    Table 7 contains the information above.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  19. #1744
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Spec

    Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html
    I haven't gone through the DHS report for FB, but the DOS report shows the number of numerically limited visas issued as 226,651.

    Maybe you've missed some in the DHS report.

    The numbers never seem to match exactly and even the DOS report changes over the year. Usually the differences are so small, as to be insignificant.
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  20. #1745
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I noticed the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

    Some interesting statistics that we couldn't get from the DOS report.

    EB1

    EB1A --- 25.17%
    EB1B --- 23.31%
    EB1C --- 51.52%

    Total - 100.00%


    The EB1C % of the total is reduced from FY2009, when it was 59.10%.

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 was 1.40. i.e. each I-140 approval results in 2.40 I-485 approvals.

    EB2

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.06.


    EB3

    The Dependant / Primary ratio for EB2 was 1.37.


    The overall Dependant / Primary ratio for EB1 - EB3 was 1.25.

    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm
    http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/...ons/LPR10.shtm

    Table 7 contains the information above.
    Spec,
    This is very good information, we noticed that factor should be less than what we are using between PERM/i-140 to i485.
    Since these are average numbers, will be different for different countries!

  21. #1746
    Check it out. The difference is not insignificant.
    If true, what it means is DoS issues visas at limit for FB. But DHS only used 214.5K towards FB.

    As a consequence DoS should incresae the EB 2011 limit by 10.5K. (of course that ain't gonna happen unless a pressure group brings this to notice).

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I haven't gone through the DHS report for FB, but the DOS report shows the number of numerically limited visas issued as 226,651.

    Maybe you've missed some in the DHS report.

    The numbers never seem to match exactly and even the DOS report changes over the year. Usually the differences are so small, as to be insignificant.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #1747
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    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    Spec,
    This is very good information, we noticed that factor should be less than what we are using between PERM/i-140 to i485.
    Since these are average numbers, will be different for different countries!
    Veni,

    You will notice that I have always used 2.1 as a ratio for EB2. The numbers have remained stable for many years.

    Whilst it is true that different Countries almost certainly have different ratios within a Preference Category, I don't think we should second guess the number without some solid justification. I don't think we have reached that point.

    IMO, the Differences between the Preference Categories are what we might expect.

    For EB1, the time taken to gain the necessary reputation and expertise, or work their way up the organization, means the applicants are likely to be older and more likely to be married and have children.

    In EB2, with Masters as the minimum requirement, it is likely that there are more younger people with less time out of University.

    In EB3, where everybody is retrogressed and have to wait a considerable time, the likelihood is that applicants are older when the application is approved.
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  23. #1748
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Hi
    I have a doubt in Facts and Data forum.

    Is the Perm data given in the table includes the withdrawn / Denied too?
    I calculated for Priority date 2009 India approvals and i have a slightly diff number . I filtered w& D datas .
    Thanks
    The PERM Data includes Certified and Certified-Expired, but excludes Denied and Withdrawn.

    The reasons for including Certified-Expired has been discussed at length in previous posts.
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  24. #1749
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Thank you . This forum has too much of valuable information .

    Thanks to Sangiano who introduced it to me
    If the difference is small, then I wouldn't worry about it. If it is larger, let me know the numbers you have and exactly what they represent (important) and I will check.
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  25. #1750
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    Lightbulb i140 to i485 Ratios (2006-2010) from DHS Year Books

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Veni,

    You will notice that I have always used 2.1 as a ratio for EB2. The numbers have remained stable for many years.

    Yes, we are pretty much on track here.


    Whilst it is true that different Countries almost certainly have different ratios within a Preference Category, I don't think we should second guess the number without some solid justification. I don't think we have reached that point.

    IMO, the Differences between the Preference Categories are what we might expect.

    For EB1, the time taken to gain the necessary reputation and expertise, or work their way up the organization, means the applicants are likely to be older and more likely to be married and have children.

    In EB2, with Masters as the minimum requirement, it is likely that there are more younger people with less time out of University.


    Yes, you can notice that from the table below!

    In EB3, where everybody is retrogressed and have to wait a considerable time, the likelihood is that applicants are older when the application is approved.
    Spec,
    I quickly compiled the table below from DHS FY statistics.

    -EB1 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
    2006 ---15,070 ---10,440 ---11,450 ---36,960 --- 2.45
    2007 ---10,967 ----7,836 ----7,894 ---26,697 --- 2.43
    2008 ---15,184 ---11,514 ----9,980 ---36,698 --- 2.42
    2009 ---16,806 ---12,685 ---11,433 ---40,924 --- 2.44
    2010 ---17,117 ---12,941 ---10,997 ---41,055 --- 2.40
    Avg.----75,114 ---55,416 ---51,754 --182,314 --- 2.43

    -EB2 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
    2006 ---10,604 ----7,204 ----4,103 ---21,911 --- 2.07
    2007 ---22,303 ---13,955 ----7,802 ---44,060 --- 1.98
    2008 ---34,535 ---23,686 ---11,824 ---70,046 --- 2.03
    2009 ---22,098 ---15,884 ----7,570 ---45,552 --- 2.06
    2010 ---26,131 ---19,723 ----8,092 ---53,946 --- 2.06
    Avg.---115,671 ---80,452 ---39,392 --235,515 --- 2.04

    -EB3 -- Primary - Spouse - Children - Total --- Ratio
    2006 ---40,929 ---23,606 ---25,573 ---89,908 --- 2.21
    2007 ---36,539 ---24,336 ---23,336 ---84,814 --- 2.32
    2008 ---20,584 ---14,208 ---14,208 ---48,887 --- 2.38
    2009 ---18,359 ---11,327 ---10,968 ---40,654 --- 2.21
    2010 ---16,714 ---12,621 ---10,340 ---39,675 --- 2.37
    Avg.---132,925 ---86,098 ---84,915 --303,938 --- 2.29

    Q,
    Add another thread, " i140 to i485 Ratios" under FACTS AND DATA and post above table for future reference.
    Last edited by veni001; 05-15-2011 at 02:44 PM. Reason: Table formatting

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