EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Spec i love your detail, analysis and impassionate arguments. I dont see anything that I can really disagree w. As you said, the year book will provide great insight into where the numbers went.

the only place I would differ if at all, would be about backlog reduction. The numbers you quote for 09 and 10 for I140 could also mean that the backlog was already cleared in 2009 and 2010 remained that way. One could argue that in 2010 all these PERM approvals contributed to increase in I140 receipts and approvals. So as you can see USCIS has tried everything it can to beef up EB2-ROW. So in 2011 there is no way other than giving away significant SOFAD to EB2IC. However unfortunately FB spillover is missing and sothe numbers won't be huge.

Thanks for your analysis. You really have a great way of looking at things just like Teddy.

It was also noticeable last FY that the number of EB1C approvals on Trackitt dropped dramatically. That might have reflected reality, but given that EB1C candidates were getting a lot of flak on the forum, it may also have just reflected fewer people adding their cases. The answer to that question will come with the publication of the Visa Statistics for FY2010 and the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.


I am aware of the drop in PERM approvals in recent years and the question of backlog reduction that may have been happening in previous years. I don't pretend to have a very good understanding of these factors.

I think the increased speed of PERM approval will offset some of this.

I also have a nagging doubt about the level of backlog reduction there was last year. It comes about through looking at the I-140 figures from the USCIS dashboard.

The figures I have for FY2008 are incomplete, but the totals for the final quarter are 18,109 receipts and 44,620 completions, suggesting that backlog reduction was in progress.

In FY2009, USCIS received 57,010 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 155,482.

That suggests that there was backlog reduction.

In FY2010, USCIS received 77,280 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 73,705.

That is not only a huge increase of I-140 receipts on FY2009, but it also suggests that there was no or little backlog reduction.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks Q, even I felt it was a typo but just wrote a long story instead . Thanks for your kind words as always and keeping our hopes and expectations realistic and alive.

Thanks Spec for your kind words. Lets discuss EB1 & EB2, I believe you are also EB2 India our situation unfortunately is like jackals and scavengers who will have the left over’s and that too we can have it only in Jul - Sep, if the lions and tigers eat everything we are doomed. All we can do is keep our spirits high as Q keeps saying just keep doing what you are doing and plan your life.
Agree with your comments on EB1 & EB2. I had done a percentage compare of EB1C 2009 V/S 2010 noticed a drop to 1/3rd. I believe that EB1 gave us ~ 5K SOFAD in 2010 while in 2009 it had consumed not only its own cap but bit into EB5. Now when we compare 2010 and 2011 on Trackitt unfortunately early days and with the miniscule representation the drop is 5-6 fold. I believe that EB1C actual fall may not be that drastic it will stabilize at some level, if it goes to even 1/2 of last year we may see EB1 giving 15K SOFAD which could boost the situation. Iam sure though that we may see atleast 10K SOFAD coming from EB1.
With regards EB2 ROW I believe 2010 saw the approvals for 2007, 2008 and 50% of 2009 cases. Perm approvals are coming within a month and EB2 ROW folks can go for concurrent filing so the end to end timing may well be just 6 months now. I agree with you that Trackitt data for EB2 ROW is pretty good. Around 2007 if somebody filed for I140 typically it used to take a year to two that is why maybe you would notice huge numbers in 2008 and 2009. Iam surprised though that the 2009 figures are that high though but it must be early 2009 mainly. Things in 2010 are so streamlined that folks are getting approvals in 2 days. Now coming to EB2 ROW decline refer to post # 142 I believe that Eb2 ROW might fall to 50% of last year the primary reason is that we are dealing with only 1 year of perm I140 rather than 2.5 Yrs last yr so 20K SOFAD from here looks just fine. Now Eb5 is being aggressively advertised this gave 7K last year it might well come down to 5K. All in all the SOFAD will go up to 36-37K. If ~ 6K goes towards catering to PD porting ~ 30K goes towards forward movement so Feb – Apr 2007 is very much in sight. Please critique / comment.

[Spectator]

Teddy and Q,

One day, I will compose a post that is concise and to the point. One day.

I'll hold fire on EB1. I really want to see what happened to EB1C last year.

For EB2, remember that Mexico and Philippines do have approvals as well. They have been around 3k a year combined, but will probably drop somewhat.

Other than that I think the problem is more a philosophical one that I own entirely.

Teddy, I don't doubt your logic at all. You've probably realised that I give great weight to historic data and trends and I don't think I can change that.

EB2-ROW has shown itself to be incredibly resilient to changing factors and has had quite stable approval figures.

The demographics of the approvals are probably somewhat different to India and much less reliant on the IT sector and consulting model which has been hit harder than most.

I cannot, at this stage, subscribe to such a huge drop in approvals, despite the very good argument for it. That is my problem.

I admit that has a large degree of "gut feeling" in it.

Approvals in Trackitt are often quite "lumpy" and I think it is probably too early to extrapolate them.

For instance, currently there are 91 primary EB2-ROW approvals (after correcting for country of chargeability) in 54 days. Prorated that would give around 28k approvals for the year using last year's derived %.

Q, I understand what you are saying about the I-140 data. I need to think about it a bit more. If backlog reduction was essentially completed in FY2009, then doesn't that imply that the majority of the 24k I-485 ROW approvals were the result of new PERM / I-140 / I485 filings from FY2010 itself. If so, why would it be any different in FY2011?

That is a genuine question, not a rhetorical one. As I have stated previously I don't feel entirely comfortable in that domain.

That brings me to a last point (honestly!). At some point, we might expect filings to increase as the economy comes out of recession. That will inevitably affect the demand from EB2-ROW and EB1C if it has been affected.

Do you guys have an opinion as to when that will happen? I have a suspicion that we have already reached or passed the low point as it affects EB immigration. That would inevitably reduce potential SOFAD in coming years.

I truly enjoy the discussion and how different approaches merge together.

[qesehmk]

Spec

For the first part of your question below - the EB2-ROW demand until this year is an artificially boosted demand through clearance of I-140 and PERM backlogs. Now that those queues are more or less empty ... any new demand in EB2ROW will be flowing through all 3 steps in the same year. Traditionally that number at max is 17K (pls see historical normal average). Now the current situation is far from normal and thats why I would imagine that EB2ROW probably would only need 8-12K in 2011. We should expect reasonable fall-across from EB2ROW.

On the second question - when should we expect to see EB demand go up, well my gut feel is that the level of NEW EB filings is inversely proportional to "TRUE TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT" in the US. It would be unbelievably difficult for labor dept to approve any new foreign labor or for USCIS to approve any new I-140 even if it is based on EB1.

Personally I do not see any significant change in 2011 compared to 2010 or 2009. Pls remember just to keep pace with the increasing population the job pool has to go up by 1%. So if it doesn't then effectively it is adding 1% decrease in the total unemployment every year.


So what does this mean for EB? It means a sooner end to their misery than otherwise wouldve been possible.

Q, I understand what you are saying about the I-140 data. I need to think about it a bit more. If backlog reduction was essentially completed in FY2009, then doesn't that imply that the majority of the 24k I-485 ROW approvals were the result of new PERM / I-140 / I485 filings from FY2010 itself. If so, why would it be any different in FY2011?

....

That brings me to a last point (honestly!). At some point, we might expect filings to increase as the economy comes out of recession. That will inevitably affect the demand from EB2-ROW and EB1C if it has been affected.

Do you guys have an opinion as to when that will happen? I have a suspicion that we have already reached or passed the low point as it affects EB immigration. That would inevitably reduce potential SOFAD in coming years.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec let’s put it another way we all agree that except for EB1-A and EB1-B all are hit by the recession. So EB2 is definitely going to be hit and 2009 was a really bad year with regards unemployment. FY 2010 saw the approval of 2007, 2008 and 50% 2009 cases. Remember 2007 and early 2008 was still good time. FY 2011 should see the rest of 2009 and 2010 maybe more than 50% because of the high pace of things. So practically the EB2 ROW demand in 2010 could well be half of what we have seen last year. The Trackitt ratio of 245 v/s 129 also kind of confirms this trend when we compare similar times in 2010 and 2011. I do agree with you that SOFAD will probably peak at a certain time and it probably cannot be higher than a certain number however 2011 is different in 2010 primarily in the sense that the backlogs in EB2 ROW are much less now everything is literally current. Had the perm and I140 processes not been speeded up last year we would have had atleast 10K of extra SOFAD. Q is right in his observations all out efforts and exceptional efforts were made to approve every possible case and then only EB2 I/C got SOFAD in the last quarter. Like you I also believe that EB1-C will decline further this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Referring to Trackitt following is the trend Comparing Oct - Nov 2009 and 2010.
EB2 ROW 2009 - 155
EB2 ROW 2010 - 88
EB1 2010 - 12 + 14 + 13
EB1 2009 - 35 + 66 + 50

We can kind of see that for both EB2 ROW and EB1 the approvals are down significantly which is good news though its still early days. For the upcoming bulletin I believe that EB3-I will reach Feb 15th 2002, however EB2-I may not move at all sadly because the 750 new numbers are insufficient to cause significant forward movement. However if EB2-I moves by a small duration than it would mean that PD porting is less than 3000 per annum for sure which would be great news as the current prediction budgets 6K for that. Expecting quarterly spillover is a little unrealistic going by past history however if see big movement it can be attributed only to quarterly spillover.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Teddy. I would imagine that in last year the backlog in 485 as well as the extra clearance of 140 and labor has flushed out ROW pipeline through and through.

So this year it will be mostly NEW demand from this year itself starting from labor through 485. I think thats why those numbers are down for EB2ROW.

EB1 is interesting but I would wait until few more months before we bank it.

Referring to Trackitt following is the trend Comparing Oct - Nov 2009 and 2010.
EB2 ROW 2009 - 155
EB2 ROW 2010 - 88
EB1 2010 - 12 + 14 + 13
EB1 2009 - 35 + 66 + 50

We can kind of see that for both EB2 ROW and EB1 the approvals are down significantly which is good news though its still early days. For the upcoming bulletin I believe that EB3-I will reach Feb 15th 2002, however EB2-I may not move at all sadly because the 750 new numbers are insufficient to cause significant forward movement. However if EB2-I moves by a small duration than it would mean that PD porting is less than 3000 per annum for sure which would be great news as the current prediction budgets 6K for that. Expecting quarterly spillover is a little unrealistic going by past history however if see big movement it can be attributed only to quarterly spillover.

[leo07]

What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?

[TeddyKoochu]

What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?

This looks pretty realistic to me, however factors keep changing. But if we go be the percentage reduction approach the drop is pretty significant. atleast the EB2 ROW data is reliable if not EB1. Q can we say so definitively in say 2 more months for now even about EB1?

Thanks Teddy. I would imagine that in last year the backlog in 485 as well as the extra clearance of 140 and labor has flushed out ROW pipeline through and through.

So this year it will be mostly NEW demand from this year itself starting from labor through 485. I think thats why those numbers are down for EB2ROW.

EB1 is interesting but I would wait until few more months before we bank it.

Hypothetical question to you, if EB1 also drops to 50% do you think that there is a chance of the dates crossing Jul 07. IMHO there is a 10% chance of it happening. Assuming that happens everybody whose 485 is filed will likely be approved and the PWMB's like me and Leo will get our chance to file for 485. I can imagine not having FB is a big hit if that was there than the chances were good, however in 2010 the FB component was added mid year so it may still be a little early to throw in the towel on that.

[qesehmk]

What's the closest/safest multiple 20-21?
to get to a true number like: 155* 21 + 88 *21 = 5103?

For EB2I it is about 25. For EB2C it would be much higher given that they don't use trackitt as much. ROW use of trackitt is better. So its ok to use 25 for EB2ROW.

For EB1 though the margin of error would be quite high. And so a better approach - as Teddy suggested - would be to use % reduction.

This looks pretty realistic to me, however factors keep changing. But if we go be the percentage reduction approach the drop is pretty significant. atleast the EB2 ROW data is reliable if not EB1. Q can we say so definitively in say 2 more months for now even about EB1?

Hypothetical question to you, if EB1 also drops to 50% do you think that there is a chance of the dates crossing Jul 07. IMHO there is a 10% chance of it happening. Assuming that happens everybody whose 485 is filed will likely be approved and the PWMB's like me and Leo will get our chance to file for 485. I can imagine not having FB is a big hit if that was there than the chances were good, however in 2010 the FB component was added mid year so it may still be a little early to throw in the towel on that.

Teddy, in 2 months yes %red approach for EB1 would work better because by that time Q1 spillover will have been applied (if at all) for EB1!
If 50% EB 1 drop is confirmed then EB2IC backlog through may 07 will be cleared. Jun-Jul has 6K combined! But as far as EB2IC dates being currrent I think the chance they will be made current (if EB YoY 50% reduction is true) is quite high.

[TeddyKoochu]

For EB2I it is about 25. For EB2C it would be much higher given that they don't use trackitt as much. ROW use of trackitt is better. So its ok to use 25 for EB2ROW.

For EB1 though the margin of error would be quite high. And so a better approach - as Teddy suggested - would be to use % reduction.



Teddy, in 2 months yes %red approach for EB1 would work better because by that time Q1 spillover will have been applied (if at all) for EB1!
If 50% EB 1 drop is confirmed then EB2IC backlog through may 07 will be cleared. Jun-Jul has 6K combined! But as far as EB2IC dates being currrent I think the chance they will be made current (if EB YoY 50% reduction is true) is quite high.

Thanks Q, the % reduction approach for predictions and calculations is something I picked up from you and our good friend GCP, thanks to both of you for that. Thanks for the answer to the hypothetical question It helps to keep my hopes alive for this year. Let’s wait, watch and see what happens. Is there any news about the DOS annual report being published maybe that may have something on FB Spillover, other than that based on other inputs / news this component won't be there this year.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q, the % reduction approach for predictions and calculations is something I picked up from you and our good friend GCP, thanks to both of you for that. Thanks for the answer to the hypothetical question It helps to keep my hopes alive for this year. Let’s wait, watch and see what happens. Is there any news about the DOS annual report being published maybe that may have something on FB Spillover, other than that based on other inputs / news this component won't be there this year.

Sure! I just found out that NVC inventory is out. When plugged into the model it shows 30.5K sofad. Which means dates should move to April 2007 for EB2IC. If EB1 usage is 50% (to be confirmed in next 2-3 months) then the dates becoming current is really high.

[leo07]

Q, Great if EB1 drops by 50%, in all cases Eb2 ROW must see a significant drop from trackitt data? Also, all these analysis is geared for CIS's current processing rate. If DREAM comes through, not sure CIS will be able to allot same number of resources for EB. I sympathize with DREAM aspirants, just not this year I have waited for 1/3 of my life already, really!

Teddy, Thanks for the multiple. Hope & pray we get through this year.

[leo07]

Similar perspective from Ron, of course with no dates as to when the EB2 will start moving:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html

[Spectator]

Similar perspective from Ron, of course with no dates as to when the EB2 will start moving:
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html

From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.

The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.

Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.

The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.

If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.

The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.

Ron says:

The answer lies in the large numbers of India EB3 cases that have been and continue to be upgraded to EB2 classification. If there were no upgrade cases, the India EB2 cutoff date would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012.

A complete and utter load of hogwash!

Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.

[Spectator]

ROW as I see looked at was: ALL-IC

OK. I look at ROW as ALL - ICMP

M & P have their own approvals in addition to my definition of ROW. In general, they contribute around 3k to SOFAD in EB2.

[qesehmk]

Spec, take it easy. People sometimes make genuine mistakes, sometimes they genuinely want to make mistakes. We should keep focused on what we are doing. We should be proud that we were the first to say predict significant EB2 movement and we have been the first to mention that significant movement will only happen Jul-Sep. If we keep objective focus we will continue to provide good information. But lets not criticize others.

From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.

The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.

Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.

The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.

If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.

The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.

Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.

[Spectator]

Spec, take it easy. People sometimes make genuine mistakes, sometimes they genuinely want to make mistakes. We should keep focused on what we are doing. We should be proud that we were the first to say predict significant EB2 movement and we have been the first to mention that significant movement will only happen Jul-Sep. If we keep objective focus we will continue to provide good information. But lets not criticize others.

Q,

If you don't believe it is warranted, then fair enough.

However, unlike us, Ron is an Immigration Attorney. He has a special place in many peoples hearts and his opinions carry great weight in the community.

His article implies a lack of knowledge about the visa allocation system, which I know is not the case.

More likely, it has been posted without sufficient thought or research. Unlike a previous article, at least this is an opinion that won't cause any harm to the immigrant journey for anybody.

I think it is relevant to post a criticism, with justifications, since I don't believe this forum will be forecasting that EB2-I Cut Off dates "would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012".

I will not mention the subject again.

[leo07]

I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.

IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?

Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.

No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.

From a quick read, I can't even begin to describe what an awful article that is.

The visas issued to EB2-I in the period since May 2009 don't even correspond to those allocated in FY2008 and FY2009.

Since May 2009, visas issued are somewhat less than 10,106 in FY2009 plus those allocated in FY2010, thought to be c.20,000. Visas allocated in FY2008 have nothing to do with it.

The reduction is entirely consistent with the visa numbers issued, CP cases PWMB and Porting.

If factors change, such that SOFAD drops dramatically, then it will affect further forward movement in EB2-I.

The reason that the Cut Off date won't move forward until the Summer is because until then, EB2-I is limited to the prorated amount of 2,803 visas. Only in the final quarter do the VO start to allocate "otherwise unused visas". Porting might stop some or any movement until then, but any significant movement doesn't take place until Q4 anyway.

Ron says:

A complete and utter load of hogwash!

Ron has published some very odd and factually incorrect statements recently. It is most unlike him.

[Spectator]

I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.

IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?

Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.

No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.

Leo,

I totally agree with your post, except for one point.

Ron is implicitly talking about SOFAD, since he is making a prediction as to where Cut Off dates may move by mid 2012. His comment is saying that not only will the IC backlog to August 2007 be cleared by mid 2012, but so will the IC backlog from September 2007 to late 2010/early 2011 as well. It is just not possible with one year's spillover (or even 2 years IMO). That is the issue I have. Just look at the number of approved PERMs for 2008-2010 (57k for India alone). That translates into a huge backlog in EB2, regardless of the EB2:EB3 split used.

Porting or no Porting, the Cut off dates weren't going to move very quickly, with only 250 visas available per month.

I REALLY won't mention it again.

[qesehmk]

Spec I respect you tremendously. So actually I was out of the line to tell you what you should or shouldn't criticize. I think the statement you quoted from Ron is ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY wrong. We are on the same page about that.

The reality of EB3 upgrades is that they are between 3-5K per year. That's about it. It is not easy to switch job when economy is doing bad. And then have somebody sponsor your GC ... that's too much to ask. So EB2IC folks be peaceful on that matter. EB3 is not going to eat your lunch. This year ROW demand will be less compared to previous year and that will give EB2IC a boost and likely clear until Jun 2007.

As per why somebody would project EB3-2 conversions ? Well if that somebody is an attorney.... go figure!!!

Q,

If you don't believe it is warranted, then fair enough.

However, unlike us, Ron is an Immigration Attorney. He has a special place in many peoples hearts and his opinions carry great weight in the community.

His article implies a lack of knowledge about the visa allocation system, which I know is not the case.

More likely, it has been posted without sufficient thought or research. Unlike a previous article, at least this is an opinion that won't cause any harm to the immigrant journey for anybody.

I think it is relevant to post a criticism, with justifications, since I don't believe this forum will be forecasting that EB2-I Cut Off dates "would likely move forward to the point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012".

I will not mention the subject again.

I wouldn't call it a hogwash. It's a different perspective than yours.

IMHO, Ron was not as detailed as you were in your calculations. I'm sure Ron acknowledges the SOFAD, I have seen his earlier posts. But, in this instance, he was specifically referring to EB3->Eb2 upgrades as being the single reason for EB2 dates not progressing these days. Which, I think is correct. SOFAD will not come into effect until July anyways, it's too early to talk about it now(from his perspective)?

Also, we must know that his articles doesn't have to be as detailed and are geared mostly towards lesser(EB immigration)educated. The way I look at it as a Math grad student, commenting on a primary school math teacher on his tutoring techniques.

No offense implied. Just, expressing my view here. ( No, Ron is not paying me for this) Sorry for digressing the thread, this will be my last post on this particular Ron's matter.

[qesehmk]

Spec, actually cut off dates would move (albeit very slowly) if there were no porting. But because there is porting that is offseting those 250 visa per month the dates won't be moving until SOFAD comes. Right?

Porting or no Porting, the Cut off dates weren't going to move very quickly, with only 250 visas available per month.

[Spectator]

So actually I was out of the line to tell you what you should or shouldn't criticize.

Q,

The respect is mutual. As moderator of this forum, you have every right to comment and suggest, if you believe the comments overstep the mark. I totally respect that and please continue to do so.

I can be ..err.. rather passionate at times and by contrast you always seem so level headed. Maybe I need reigning in at times.....

I admit, perhaps I might deliberately phrase things to provoke discussion from time to time......

The reality of EB3 upgrades is that they are between 3-5K per year. That's about it. It is not easy to switch job when economy is doing bad. And then have somebody sponsor your GC ... that's too much to ask. So EB2IC folks be peaceful on that matter. EB3 is not going to eat your lunch.

I totally agree that Porting is portrayed as some kind of bogeyman at times - it isn't a view I personally subscribe to. In fact I agree with Porting. As you say, it's no easy task. Given that EB2 currently essentially consumes all spillover, Porting cases only reduce the gain slightly.

This year ROW demand will be less compared to previous year and that will give EB2IC a boost and likely clear until Jun 2007.

Until there is evidence to the contrary, I have to disagree.

The low estimate for EB2-ROW was predicated on the decreasing PERM approvals in FY2008 and FY2009.

The assumption was that level would continue through FY2010 and into FY2011. It was extremely reasonable, given the state of the economy.

The PERM figures for FY2010 suggest that assumption no longer holds true.

Unless there is a substantial slowdown in approvals in FY2011, then the estimate must rise IMO.

Is that possible? Of course it is. A large increase in supervised recruitment or auditing of PERMS would certainly have that effect. Or an increase in processing times for PERM/I-140/I485.

Is it probable? An entirely different question.

I would be interested in views as to why FY2011 would see a drastic slowdown compared to FY2010.

I suspect that only the passage of time will yield an answer.

[Spectator]

Spec, actually cut off dates would move (albeit very slowly) if there were no porting. But because there is porting that is offseting those 250 visa per month the dates won't be moving until SOFAD comes. Right?

That is entirely possible, maybe probable. It is what I would expect.

If there was any movement, it might imply that there were fewer than 250 Porting cases approved that month.

But, we are talking about the Visa Office, so who knows.

I certainly don't expect the dates to retrogress, even if Porting is much higher than 250 per month. The VO must be well aware that spillover will cover the difference, so they will treat it in a similar way to their approach to EB1.

PS Yay! I've lost the Junior moniker.

[Sunny.]

This could be out of context to what you ppl are discussing but thought I will post it anyhow as I see it on trackitt and thought it could be of some use(and give some hope) for all the ppl waiting on the EB2 GC line.

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...2-backlog.html