Can you tell e this... Does Q4 perm filings get approved in the last quarter?? I guess not....Then during the extrapolation, we can reduce that number right...so it would be 18k + 3.5k = 21.5k .... So lo more spillover right....Originally Posted by veni001
soggadu,
Agree Q4 PERM cases may not get a VISA assigned in that FY, When we are talking about spillover we have to take the overall effect. SO for FY2011 EB2 ROW-M-P demand calculations we need data for Q1,Q2 & Q3 PERM + pending applications at USCIS as of 10-01-2010. So it will be 21.5k+9.9k = 31.4k
Last edited by veni001; 05-12-2011 at 09:59 PM. Reason: 2010 ROW-M-P pending inventory update
veni
plus you only showed us just a few posts back that EB2/3 mix for 2010 vs 2011 is more in favor of EB2 in 2011. That is a -ve impact.
So that -18% probably is a wash when you consider this EB2/3 mix factor.
But even then ROW should yield 7.5K (if consumption of 2011 equals consumption of 2010). I think we will take that! Right?
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I wouldn't worry about PW data at all. Nearly all companies want lowest wages for highest qualifications - they want PW data to document this, especially for EB2. So there will be instances of shopping around a bit. I would go with October 2010 pending inventory + PERM filings for Q1, Q2, estimated Q3 and figure out the spillover.
Me thinks Eb2-ROW will end up with 26K to 28K usage. What do you think guys?
I am still hesitant to bank anything more than 4k from ROW-M-P until Q3 PERM Data is available (probably we will of Sept bulletin by then) I am counting on an average 10.0k EB2 qualified ROW PERMs for the first three quarters + EB2ROW-M-P i485 pending (9.9k) as of 10-01-2010.
Last edited by veni001; 05-12-2011 at 10:01 PM.
kd2008,
Spec's analysis is based on minimum job requirements, not based on salary!
Yes veni, I know. What I meant was companies will ask attorneys to file multiple PW requests until they get a favorable wage outcome, especially so if it an Eb2 case. Hence increase in PW numbers can be ignored. Only the actual PERM filings be taken into account.
Do you think in calculating available SOFAD we should also try to keep some buffer of about 2-2.5K (some number) visas that DOS will prefer not to use for determining cut-off dates for September bulletin? Just in case they want to keep enough padding to absorb the demand due to unknown upgrade demand. This way next fiscal year they will not end up using 2800 visas before April. I do not know but DOS never plays by book and always keeps learning from their past mistakes. Just a thought.I am still hesitant to bank anything more than 4k from ROW-M-P until Q3 PERM Data is available (probably we will of Sept bulletin by then
Just a reminder for those that don't know.
I am keeping a running total of EB2-I approvals.
I update the figures for Trackitt approvals in the FACTS and DATA section 2-3 times a day. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections
The last post date doesn't change, because it is an edit, so it isn't very obvious.
Some people might find it interesting to follow the progress.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
kd2008,
That could be true, that is why we are trying to gather data from all possible directions/sources to come to a common understanding.
More or less E2 ROW-M-P is in the range of 45% - 55% of ROW-M-P PERM certifications.
Spec
You may want to use "announcements" when you make that kind of change. Just edit the existing announcement or simply create new one.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
How do we know if USCIS/DOL have used all visa numbers for this year by end of the year (September)?
Any news on the latest I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics that is published on uscis.gov website? Last it was published on Jan 5th, 2011. I read somewhere they are going to keep publishing it every 3 months.
btw, appreciate all the contributors to this blog for their work.
shaumack,
Let's look at the language from June VB closely...
"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit. "
It is clear that EB2I absorbed all 2,800 quota in the first 7 months! If we look at 10-01-2010 inventory, 01-05-2011 inventory there isn't much change (they might have added few district office cases). So on an average they approved about 400 EB2I porting cases per month.
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability. "
As we can see porting demand is averaging about 400 per month for the first two quarters of FY2011(could have been higher in the first two months). When DOS/USCIS say heavy demand of porting it is only few hundreds(or less than 1% of EB3I pending between May 2002 and May 2006)
Combining Q1&Q2 PERM data for FY2011 did not show any drastic increase in filings, and DOS indicated, at least for the last few weeks, the "porting" demand is minimal. Even if we assume DOS/USCIS aggressive numbers (400 per month) for the remainder of the year( July-Sept) it will only be about 1 -1.5k which is a very small number compared to all SOFAD they want to utilize in the final quarter.
Last edited by veni001; 05-13-2011 at 01:10 AM.
visagcinfo,
Welcome to the forum.
We can gauge it, at least for this year, based on pending EB-i485 inventory dated 10-01-2010 and PD movement in September 2011 VB.
Guys, unfortunately USCIS is dragging its legs to publish the I-485 inventory report. So EB2-ROW pipeline and usage is still a matter of uncertainty. I was wondering if we can look at the number of pending applications on trackitt. May be that can help us determine upcoming consumption and cross check with PERM data. Knowing you guys, it must have already been done probably. If so, just point me to the post.
Thanks!
Friends for the Jul VB Iam hoping that we will have another 8-9K worth of movement in terms of numbers and the VB will move over to 01-Feb-2007. We all expect good movement in the last quarter, the Jul & Aug bulletin have to move us close enough to make a big bang possible in September.
Teddy,
u believe they move dates beyond Jul07 in september? I think they may be ready to do quarterly spill overs from next fiscal to control the date movement
Teddy, Bieber, Q, Veni,
I think it is extremely interesting what will happen and worthy of discussion, not least because we all probably have our own views.
Let's hope that there are enough applications already to cover SOFAD, because I think it is too late now to generate any more that will be ready to adjudicate, bar porting cases that already have an I-485.
IF I were CO I would consider the following:
1) Move the Cut Off Date in September (or October if the dates don't get close to the end of the known demand) to generate the realistic Demand required for FY2012.
2) Retrogress the dates back in the following month consistent with using the initial limited allocation.
3) In late March, assess whether sufficient Demand has been generated for the year, taking into account the likely number of spare visas. 5/6 months into the year should be long enough to make an educated guess.
Then either:
a) If insufficient Demand appears to have been generated, taking into account how other Countries/Categories are performing and the best estimate of likely spare visas, move the May VB forward to generate the extra Demand required or;
b) If sufficient Demand appears to exist, continue moving the VB in line with the initial allocation.
5/6 months from the first movement allows the actual Demand to realistically appear.
Option (a) allows a further 5 months for additional Demand to be ready for adjudication, if necessary.
Option (b) allows for the eventuality that either more Demand was generated than expected, or that less visas are available than initially thought.
4) Spillover gets allocated in July to September and the September Cut Off date is advanced sufficiently to generate the next year's Demand, safe in the knowledge that none of the later applications will be ripe for adjudication within the current FY.
5) Rinse and repeat each year.
Once the Cut Off Date moves beyond a person's PD and assuming DOS get their estimates/calculations correct, most people could have a reasonable expectation that they would get their approval the next year. That gives a certain stability to the system.
At some point, if it hasn't happened already, USCIS will have to give DOS a breakdown of approved I-140 applications held by USCIS, rather than the NVC, which DOS already have. With this information, DOS calculations could be quite accurate. The unknown variable would be the number of spare visas available in any given year.
I think the above is broadly within the law, but the law was never designed to deal with this eventuality, so it needs to be bent a little bit whatever DOS decide to do.
What to you think?
How would you tackle it?
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec...
IMHO the dates will move towards 2008 and then retrogress as needed...you are right... reason for this is that USCIS has to plan ahead not to waste any numbers, it takes around 6months for each application to go thru and i guess it would be right to get that data before hand rather than during the middle of the year, also it would generate fresh income.
Also, many of us are neglecting the fact that NVC has send emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD. I believe it was not a mistake and they have plans to move the date, hence the word retrogression in current bulletin....
S,
I think the info about the fact that "NVC has sent emails to pay the fee's for 485 applications with people till Nov 07 PD" is not entirely true. Reason being, I believe this was an effort by someone from www.immigrationvoice.org and a few folks thought that the idea was to update their PD. So I wouldn't go by the updates on that list. I hope I am wrong on this one!
Spec the key in what you are proposing is generate realistic demand required for next one year.
So what is realistic demand? It certainly isn't 3K for EB2I. (and by the way .... teh demand is always more than 3K. Its really supply we are talking about).
In my opinion I would remove the need to be current in order to file 485. This way let everybody file 485 and then when they become current they get a GC. USCIS / DOS have perfect visibility and keep collecting cool fees and applicant is happy.
Now realistically .... I think they would do better to move date by 1 year every year at the least in Sep followed by retrogression. However my advice really be to make everything current in Sep and then retrogress in Oct. But you are right that is such an outrageous thing .. that it almost violates the law rather than bend or go around it.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Might be the case.... no concrete evidence
Last edited by soggadu; 05-13-2011 at 03:11 PM.
Spec
To create realistic demand, they have to guess the supply. I think the bottomline is CIS/DOS is whether ok or not with people getting EADs and wait in line. They have to generate more demand than supply to avoid wastage (even going to EB3 is wastage in terms of EB2).
Moving 1 year fixed in every september may be good idea, or eligibility to apply for I485 if visa number is not available should me made time dependent. If one has approved 140 for 2 years and they didnot get chance then there shouldn't be visa number availability clause, they can issue the gc only when number is available anyways. The cutoff date movement will still represent the actual scenario
Spec/ Veni,
What is your final say on EB2 ROW-M-P spillover to EB2 IC? Thanks.
There s something fishy about those who claim NVC collected fee from them till Nov. As far as I could gather, one or two reported on imminfo that they got an email requesting fee from NVC and that their PD is in June 2007. That November stuff comes out from some other forum and is as I said 'fishy'...
Edit: I now see that haripatthi is clarified the same. That is just about it.
Last edited by anuran; 05-13-2011 at 02:09 PM. Reason: Clarification
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