EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Veni

I was referring to 485 inventory. But now I realized the numbers I use have 2.5K in them for PWMB for Oct-06-Aug-07.

The 20K you use I imagine is the DoS demand. Is that right?

Q,
Either way, demand data less EB2I&C movement in JUNE 2011 VB (approx 8K), or from EB-i485 inventory(half of OCT2006 till 01AUG2007) i am getting the same number about 20.0K
No PWMB or porting numbers though!

[gaurav811]

I think there is a fairly accurate conservative estimate on where the EB2I PD will be by September 2011. Can anyone speculative what can be the aggressive estimate ? Please assume that the PD forward movement will result in exact targeted number use and hence there will be no retrogression. Thanks

[gcwait2007]

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

Great work Srinivasj. Appreciate for bringing out...

[gcwait2007]

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

Q,

Your estimations are in a way correct.

DoS had allocated 3K in May 2011 and another 9K in June 2011 VB.

I estimate that there is another 4K expected from EB1, EB2 ROW (except M&P) 5.8K and EB5 another 5.8K. Total estimate is 15.6K. With porting, I guess the dates would reach March 2007. I keep my fingers crossed.

Finally, thanks to you for this wonderful blog site.

[soggadu]

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

[qesehmk]

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

[Spectator]

I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

[veni001]

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

soggadu,
We have to wait for the actual VB to see if DOS/USCIS throw any insight, all in all i would stick with the 32k conservative estimate from Q, so far looks to me that USCIS only applied 12k EB1 fall-down from the first two quarters. I believe USCIS will have another 20K for the final quarter towards EB2I&C backlog.

[vishnu]

Let's forget the calculates for a moment. CO said that 'a minumum' of 12k EB1 unused visas will fall down. They are extremely conservative, so that number will probably be much greater than 12k. The fact they have used the 12k already for fall down, despite 4 months left in the fiscal year (and 3 more visa bulletins), I'm v confident there has to be much more unused visas from EB1. In short, would think 4-8k more visas from EB1 will fall down.

[vishnu]

Visa bulletin predicted (in last bulletin) 1-3 week movement for EB2 India, we got 15. Again hows to highlight there conservative nature and possible upside to all their statements. Appx 20k is reqd to clear July 07 from here. Assume 8k from EB1 + 8k from EB2 ROW + 8k from EB5 and we should get there. These numbers aren't conservative but not overly agressive too.

[anuran]

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

Well 3.5 months is pretty good forward 'strut'. Therefore, this year there is been a movement of 5.5 months in 5 months and 12 days [142 days (2006) in 132 days (2011)]. I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

I know most predictions seem to stall in Mar'07. That is the reason I use the term 'strut' - CIS will dare to move more because double-retrogression by moving the dates a bit back in the future is not bad , but wasting visas would be downright incompetent .

[soggadu]

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

[veni001]

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).

Q,
I think there won't be any jerky movement this year, looks like DOS/USCIS is coordinating well and moving the dates forward in a controlled manner.
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.

[yank]

Link:

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB-2 India: 15 Oct 06

I hope I am correct in reading the bulletin. Please ignore this if this has been already posted.

[veni001]

I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.

[qesehmk]

I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.

Q,
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.

Here is an interesting fact you may want to consider. Last time under GWB when the economy picking up in 2003-4 everything was made current (including EB3! Can you believe it?). The reason IMHO being that as economy starts revving up they DO WANT the high skilled workforce. So now that there are some signs of recovery, I would imagine that if not this season they could repeat that same act (may not be as drastic as making everything current). But the date has to go forward if economy makes progress.

Since this is not data and is a very subjective topic, I wouldn't bet on it. But looked at this way you can see how DOS tries to play GOD.

[Spectator]

Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.

Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.

Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I am quite confident that you are right.

Veni,
My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date.

[veni001]

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

soggadu,
I am hoping DOS will hint something in the actual VB for June2011.
Best case scenario would be move dates by 3-months each(controlled manner) in the next three bulletins. That will take us in to JULY 2007, if they want to test waters then it will be more than that, let's see!

[veni001]

Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.



The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

Spec,
You are correct, I am assuming that EB2C may not have used all of its allocation(some cases may have processing delays) if they did, then YES both must have the same Cut Off date.

[TeddyKoochu]

From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

[qesehmk]

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!

From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!

Yes I see that one now , btw I hope Iam woken up every month for the next 3 months with 3.5 months of movement each time I will be current. All in all this is great news thanks for posting the news about significant movement it has turned out to be true.

[anuran]

Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.

The fact that there is no data does bother me. But remember NVC sent out email asking for the fee from those with PD in June? If they do not move the cutoff to June, hope they put the money in a decent money market account. I do believe there are still more unknowns scuttling the predictions. Cheers.

[bieber]

Eventhough I'm happy for the date movement, it clearly creates doubts about how DOS is predicting with given inventory. Still don't understand why they hinted in May bulletin that there will be no likely movement in June bulletin. It's just so easy for them to inform different scenarios, and I don't know what changed their thinking so much in just 1 week of May.