EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

Thanks Veni!

I do have a question - In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?

However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.

I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.

All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.

I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.

[skpanda]

skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

Thanks... I got the information I was looking for...so there are around 100K people who filed/approved PERM during 2007-2011 (2 quarters). Ofcourse not all of them are EB2, not all of them will file I485 and we have to consider the family factor of 2+.

I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.

Sorry.. may be I was not clear in my question. I wanted to estimate the demand after July 2007 since DOS does not have that information. I have the information.

Thanks to both of you!
S

[veni001]

Duplicate post

[veni001]

Thanks Veni!

I have two questions:

a. In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?
b. Why do you say at the end waiting with PD until DEC 2007. I was hoping to get the demand till say end of 2010 (PD until DEC 2010).

However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.

I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.

All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.

Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure data, and PD based on Calender Year.

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

At least 70.0k out of 86.3k will be EB2, you can do the math now!

[skpanda]

Thanks! Yes.. numbers are not promising...

Wonder why people keep saying.. demand was low during 2008/2009/2010.

skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.

Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure data, and PD based on Calender Year.

EB- INDIA
PD 2007 (after July 2007) - 14.2k
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD 2007 (after July 2007) - 3.2k
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

At least 70.0k out of 86.3k will be EB2, you can do the math now!

[veni001]

Thanks! Yes.. numbers are not promising...

Wonder why people keep saying.. demand was low during 2008/2009/2010.

skpanda,
The reason is people are only looking at PERM approvals by FY and not looking at CY numbers.

Just to give you an Example: 10.3k out of 11.3k EBI PERM certifications in FY 2009 are with PD 2008!

[hsinghjkaur]

Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night

[soggadu]

Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night

Singh ji...tension na lo yaara.... your's will be definitely current...

[qesehmk]

"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.

Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...

Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night

[tanu_75]

"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.

good riddance. as if the suspense wasn't bad enough, the idiot in the consulate sure sent a few to the ER with his own bulletins.

[gcseeker]

Lol Hilarious comment.Thanks for the laugh ..needed that one.

good riddance. as if the suspense wasn't bad enough, the idiot in the consulate sure sent a few to the ER with his own bulletins.

[krishnav]

So, this takes out the option of dates made current then. This is probably the second time in the last 3-4 months that something like this happened.

"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I heard that the Mumbai Consulate is actually closed for building repairs so there is an advisory to folks to take appointments elsewhere. I did however notice that their page was updated for last month. In today’s internet age it would be much better to redirect everyone to the DOS page itself to see the VB and prevent occurrence of such errors this way there is a single point of information. However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better. Good luck to us all.

[qesehmk]

Teddy
Agar yeh sach hain to tumhare munh mein haldiram ki dukan

...However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better.

[veni001]

Friends I heard that the Mumbai Consulate is actually closed for building repairs so there is an advisory to folks to take appointments elsewhere. I did however notice that their page was updated for last month. In today’s internet age it would be much better to redirect everyone to the DOS page itself to see the VB and prevent occurrence of such errors this way there is a single point of information. However there is a belief about the bulletin the later the better. Good luck to us all.

Teddy,
DOS maintains/updates all usconsulate.gov websites!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy
Agar yeh sach hain to tumhare munh mein haldiram ki dukan

Thanks, I think the latest it can get is Friday the 13th. On a lighter note 13th has been my lucky number my PD is late Jul 2007 so if gets current (Which is extremely far fetched) after 4 years all PWMB's will have a reason to be happy.

Teddy,
DOS maintains/updates all usconsulate.gov websites!

That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

[veni001]

Thanks, I think the latest it can get is Friday the 13th. On a lighter note 13th has been my lucky number my PD is late Jul 2007 so if gets current (Which is extremely far fetched) after 4 years all PWMB's will have a reason to be happy.



That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

Teddy,
I Agree!

[skpanda]

Agreed... having a central location is always better and will avoid errors/confusion.

That’s too much of work for them it would have been much simpler to redirect to the URL of the official VB. Its also better for accuracy sake but definitely not good for jobs !

[srinivasj]

visa bulletin never came out later than 11th of each month..so it should come out today..

[usernameone7]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.

**EDIT - This question was for veni001, who posted the Post-July2007 PERM fillings.

[nijor.deha]

Hi All

I am new to this forum.My priority date is June 2008.My wife is also working on H1B and she is nt processed her GC expecting that we will get EAD by 2012.Her H1B is valid till dec 2012.Is expect EAD by 2012 is too optimistic?

Since I am new to this forum I didnt understand may terminology.

Thanks a lot for good work.

[hsinghjkaur]

Q's reliable source mentioned that the VB should be out latest by today. Even though I agree with Teddy that historically the later the better but if it doesn't come out today, then one criteria in Q's news will be wrong which will cool down all the excitement.

I really hope that it is out today and Q's information holds true (even if significant can mean different for different people).

[veni001]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.

PERM Case numbers are assigned based on Julian date they are received at DOL.

Example:
PERM Case# A-08255-86100
This is a 2008 PERM application filed on 255 day of the year with DOL Atlanta office

Check this out
http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/mod...aseNumbers.htm

[Spectator]

Can you tell me which field from the PERM disclosure data are you using to determine the priority date? The only field that has a date value is the Decision date.

The PD is contained within the case number.

Take a typical case number - A-09147-47047

The PD is the 5 digits following A- in Julian Date format.

The first 2 digits are the year, followed by the day of the year (Jan 1 = 001).

So this means the 147th day of 2009, or May 27, 2009.

[veni001]

Hi All

I am new to this forum.My priority date is June 2008.My wife is also working on H1B and she is nt processed her GC expecting that we will get EAD by 2012.Her H1B is valid till dec 2012.Is expect EAD by 2012 is too optimistic?

Since I am new to this forum I didnt understand may terminology.

Thanks a lot for good work.

nijor.deha,

It is always advisable to start PERM process at-least!. Don't count on predictions to come true to rescue your(your spouse) situation!

Please read first page of this thread to know more about the terminology being used on this forum and other similar forums.