Teddy
I think the effectiveness factor you calculated does not address the issue how it solves India concentration specifically in 2011. is there an assumption Trackitt data is actually shifting towards bigger India entries? even in that case the method you used is not solving the problem in my opinion. I'm just curious, didnot mean to say you are just wrong.
may be it's just unknown we can only know after the fact
Teddy,Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I don't think Mr. O translated 12k for the entire year!
In-any-event 27,300 translates to at least 12.5 k i-140 approvals or about 6.25K for the first two quarters of FY 2011.
Please see the PERM and i-140 receipts table for the last two quarters below and add the known EB1 demand as of 10-01-2010 (7.5k)
- Month -- ROW(2&3) ---EBI(2&3) ---EBC(2&3) --Monthly Total-- i140 Receipts
Oct-10 ----1,940 ------2,136 ---------231 ---------4,307 -------7,442
Nov-10 ----2,796 ------3,045 ---------350 ---------6,191 -------7,839
Dec-10 ----3,316 ------4,118 ---------423 ---------7,857 -------5,161
Jan-11 ----2,761 ------3,333 ---------447 ---------6,541 -------6,056
Feb-11 ----2,546 ------3,268 ---------383 ---------6,197 -------6,859
Mar-11 ----1,921 ------1,954 ---------279 ---------4,154 -------6,672 (estimated)
Total ----15,280 -----17,854 -------2,113 --------35,274 ------40,029
From this table FY 2011(Q1+Q2) EB1 i140 Receipts = 40,029 - 35,274 = 4,755
I am not exactly sure on EB1 i-140 success % but even if we take 80% success rate, it will translates to 8.3k demand.
Which means total known EB1 demand as of 04-01-2011 = 7.5k+8.3k= 15.8k
Assume the demand stay similar to first two quarters, add another 8.3k and assume 4k will be pending by 10-01-2011(based on processing time), then EB1 usage for this year will be around 20k?
Last edited by veni001; 05-09-2011 at 03:56 PM. Reason: table
I agree with you cycle time maybe one way of justifying the usage of this factor. Though there are no published statistics of Eb1 cycle timings we do know that at the years end especially in 2010 a very conscious attempt was made to approve every possible EB1 case. Another thing is that if people know that the approval times are less they are less likely to track their cases so lower number of cases on Trackitt are not just lower but they should be suitably extrapolated, Iam using simple linear extrapolation based on historic data that may not be an exact function or variation trend but I feel that’s the best model we can fit things into. Another classic case is Eb1-C as you know these folks are the centre of a lot of anger so they will be less likely to put in their cases. This factor cannot address each of these things individually however at a broad level it is just an attempt to capture the trend.
Guys the effectiveness factor is just an attempt to extrapolate lower postings on Trackitt to an actual number.
Bieber this is how it addresses the fact that mostly its people from India who are putting in their cases, the trend of those historically putting in their cases proportionately should remain the same, so if folks from India are putting in their cases more in 2011 the same story should hold in 2010 and 2009. So by using the ratio of 2009 and 2010 which actually had the same number of approvals we can suitable extrapolate. Iam sure that the country wise distribution trend would be roughly the same.
Veni,
Even just using last year's Trackitt %, there appear to have been 13.8k EB1 approvals to the end of April 2011.
At 20k total for the year, that would mean just 6.2k further approvals in the remaining 5 months of FY2011.
EB1 approvals picked up in March and April, accounting for 6.1k of those 13.8 k approvals.
Whilst I accept that approvals may dip again, I don't see them reducing to a level that would yield just 6.1k approvals for the rest of the year. Even the very low numbers seen for the 5 months October 2010-February 2011 would give nearly 8k additional approvals.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Veni great approach. If I understand it correctly you are assuming that EB1 I40's are the only one that do not have a corresponding perm and based on the difference in the I140 receipts and perms you are computing the EB1 I140's. By extrapolating to all 4 quarters the calculation looks conservative as honestly the last quarter cases maybe borderline. Besides EB1 even EB2 NIW does not require perm however the numbers are small but this makes your calculation even more conservative, in fact this gives credibility that the 12K may well be half year. Your approach leads to a very different outcome it does look flawless.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 05-09-2011 at 04:34 PM.
Teddy,
I agree my approach was very conservative. For a realistic prediction EB1 i-140 success rate will be the determining factor, as we all know USCIS is scrutinizing EB1 to the fullest extent lately.
P.S: Agree EB2-NIW does not require PERM, but the % is very very less when compared to EB1/EB2 numbers.
Veni If I remove the factor from my calculation then the EB1 SOFAD comes pretty close to 20K same as you are calculating maybe adding the factor for EB1 is then too drastic however I feel its just a way to normalize lower numbers. However we can all definitely agree on 1 thing that we will get at least 12K from EB1 this year.
Teddy,
Good, let's hope at least one of our approaches hold good for EB1 for FY 2011.
Veni & Teddy,
Thanks for making me to feel good
I have been praying to Almighty that there should be at least 20K spillover from EB1 to EB2 India.
gcwait2007,Veni & Teddy,
Thanks for making me to feel good
I have been praying to Almighty that there should be at least 20K spillover from EB1 to EB2 India.
Almighty is listing to your prayers
Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007 (20% Chance of 01-AUG-2007)
EB2 India Calculation Details
Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumulative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880
- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3 months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers are consumed.
- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.
- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved + 500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved + 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul. Looks like porting is only happening for India.
- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500 lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the inventory is the baseline.
- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point.
- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K
EB2 ROW Calculation from Trackitt
Whole of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 513 + 63 + 5 + 34 = 615
Whole of FY 2009 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 720 + 80 + 7 + 43 = 850
So 2010 ROW consumption should be (615/850) * (40-5.5) = 25K.
2010 ROW SOFAD = 43.5 - 25 - 6 = 12.5K
Actual 2010 SOFAD from EB2 ROW was 9.5K so we should have a effectiveness factor which is ~ 75%.
Now
7 Months of FY 2011 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 273 + 32 + 2 + 27 = 334
7 Months of FY 2010 ROW EB2 + NIW + MEX + PHL - 310 + 41 + 3 + 21 = 375
Current Rate = 89%.
Now EB2 ROW SOFAD would be
EB2 ROW + M + P consumption 2010 = 43.5 -9.5 -6 = 28K.
EB2 ROW SOFAD this year = 40-5.5- (89/100 * 28) = 9.5K
Multiplying with the effectiveness factor of 75% this would be 7K.
EB1 Calculation from Trackitt
EB1-A + EB1-B + EB1-C
2009 - 98 + 191 + 267 = 556
2010 - 101 + 158 + 123 = 382
The Consumption for EB1 for 2009 and 2010 for EB1 was ~ 41K, in 2009 EB1 got spillover from EB5 of 1K whereas in 2010 the cap was higher and EB1 consumed 41K.
So effectiveness factor = 382 / 556 = 68%.
7 Months of FY 2010 - 74 + 123 + 89 = 286
7 Months of FY 2011 - 36 + 48 + 44 = 128
Now the projected consumption for EB1 is (128/286) * 41.5K ~ 18573.
However we should extrapolate this by the effectiveness factor 18573 * 100 / 68 = 27300.
This gives a projected fall down of 40K - 27.3K ~ 12.5K which is very similar to the 12K figure that has been in the news. If we do not apply the effectiveness factor to EB1 then will receive ~22K from EB1 this can actually help to bring us close to the 01-Aug-2007 mark, however to have a conservative calculatuion lets move forward with 12K.
Now EB5 I believe will remain fairly stable at 8K and the I/C regular cap will provide is with 5.5K as expected.
So the effective SOFAD expected this year is 7+ 12.5 + 8 = 5.5 = 33K.
If we extrapolate the 33K SOFAD onto the table above then the expected PD movement will be around 15th Feb 2007. There maybe some buffer around this date so the range will be between 01-FEB-2007 and 01-APR-2007. There is a 20% chance that the dates may move to 01-AUG 2007 in case EB1 provides some extra spillover i.e. if it is really 12K * 2 = 24K and we disregard PWMB cases Virtual demand which will appear only when the dates move to that point) otherwise crossing this mark looks difficult this year.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 05-09-2011 at 09:42 PM.
gcwait2007 and veni thanks. I just hope our prayers help our dreams come true this year or atleasrt bring us close enogh. The June bulletin if there is say another 2 months movement will really be a litmus test.gcwait2007,
Almighty is listing to your prayers
Hi Teddy
If DOL has to be really conservative then what's the minimum they might want to move the dates in June Bulletin for EB2 India?
I believe that DOS should move the dates atleast by a month.
Breaking news!
Friends,
Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.
Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
Great News!
Which means DOS/USCIS will test the waters similar to what they did last year for FB2A.
Movement for June bulletin means, this year we will see great advancement of dates...
My bet is that by september, cut-off will move somewhere into 2008, and then pull back to 2007 jun/jul in october.
Thanks Q... for the heart-beating news tip
Good Luck to one and all !
Hey Q
Is it okie for you to elaborate on the source
A
Don't worry. It will all be official within a few hours.
Q, That's a great news if it will happen. But I cant believe you could ever get sucked into such a rumor considering your conservative approach as far as I know after following you for last few months. This suggests that your source has to be VERY SOLID to convince you to make such a statement. I look forward to this movement. Let's see and Good Luck to all.
Guys
I wouldn't do it without trusting the source. The person talked directly to CO and gave this info.
I usually dont like to engage in rumours. But this is NOT a rumor. This came directly to me and I have every reason to believe the source. Now whether CO misled the source ... we will see !
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
This is great news! All the best to everybody who will be greened this year!!
Any chance that DOS would make the dates current for EB2 for atleast 1 month before Sept 2011 and Retrogess in Oct 2011? I have a PD in 2010 and would really help me if I could file 485/EAD. I know this is too much to ask but then...i am hopeful...
Thanks Q!!!!
Year will be a good movement for most of us here
I thought that VB is few hours or a day later than the time when demand data for that month is released. I didn't see Demand Data yet so I doubt that VB will be today. My understanding is that it will be tomorrow but thanks for the news Q.
Thanks Q.
Am I glad to be in the right forum / company at the right time !?!
Hope CO has no other aspirations...
-A
PS: ALl the best to everyone who will benefit immediately from this movement.
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