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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

  1. #1401
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    Future PERM Plans

    I came across this document, covering FY2010, which I thought was interesting and didn't seem to have had much attention, even though it isn't extremely new.

    http://www.nafsa.org/uploadedFiles/DOL2010report.pdf

    It is the relevant extract from a much larger document.

    I have reproduced most of it below, but there is a table as well. The emphasis is mine, hopefully to help people pick out some of the more interesting points.

    I hope some people find it interesting.

    Analysis and Future Plans

    Employment and Training Administration

    Statutes, regulations, and administrative requirements establish mandatory timeframes within which OFLC must process certain applications or take given actions. Each foreign labor certification program is administered under a different set of requirements according to its unique role in the labor market.

    For the permanent labor certification program, 37 percent of permanent labor certification program applications were resolved within six months of the initial filing date. When compared to FY 2009, processing times improved substantially due, in large part, to the implementation of a management plan that resulted in the reduction of the backlog of pending permanent cases by approximately 50 percent from 66,885 in September 2009 to less than 35,000 cases in October 2010.

    As part of its FY 2011 Operating Plan, OFLC will continue backlog reduction activities designed to bring processing times in line with established FY 2011 goal of 81 percent.

    A key and long standing challenge within the foreign labor certification programs has been balancing program integrity activities and the impact of those efforts on overall case processing times and the generation of case backlogs. Eligible U.S. employers will continue to have access to foreign workers when qualified domestic workers are not available. However, additional screens and analytical rigor in the foreign labor certification programs helps ensure American jobs are truly open to U.S. workers, that they get those opportunities first as the Congress originally intended, and that job opportunities are made available to foreign workers only when employers can establish need based on a sound labor market test (H-1B excepted).

    Increased integrity activities such as conducting audit investigations and supervised recruitments, which began in 2009, increase the average length of time to resolve a permanent application as these are labor-intensive regulatory processes. However, these two integrity measures also generate the highest number of denials and non-certifications, outcomes which enhance program integrity and contribute to jobs being available to U.S. workers.

    The results of these integrity activities are now being reported and demonstrate that a little more than one half of the resolved permanent applications during FY 2010 selected for integrity review were found in compliance.

    Because the regulations require employers to attest to compliance with program requirements at the time of filing a permanent application, this indicator measures the likelihood that OFLC will certify an employer application following a more thorough investigation of the employer's compliance with program requirements or when U.S. workers may be available for certain requested positions. Greater scrutiny also ensures, as the statute requires, that the hiring of foreign workers occurs subject to all terms and conditions, including wages, which safeguard the employment and economic security of American workers and their families.

    Strategic Goal 1

    OFLC will apply stricter scrutiny to applications. In the future, OFLC will revise the PERM application form – which expires in June 2011 – to both strengthen its integrity (by clarifying program requirements) and seek more detailed justifications in key parts of the form.

    Managers at OFLC headquarters and the national processing center levels will, where feasible, attempt to implement operational strategies to maintain production levels while enhancing audit investigations and other program integrity efforts.

    In FY 2011, the Department intends to propose legislation to establish an employer-paid user fee to partially fund the PERM, H-2A and H-2B programs to: make the programs more responsive to labor market demand; ensure financial resources to process applications timely; and recognize the benefit of the certification is to the employer and not the public.

    Finally, OFLC will initiate a baseline review of its SOPs to confirm they are still accurate and appropriate for the current business process, and will develop a methodology to randomly select a sample of resolved permanent program applications for quality review. Implementation of this quarterly review process will be labor intensive and will require an adequate base level of funding in FY 2011 to achieve the desired performance outcome.

    United States Department of Labor – FY 2010 Annual Performance Report

    NAFSA extracts of OFLC content from DOL report dated 2/11/2011, downloaded from http://www.dol.gov/dol/budget/2012/P...2012-V1-01.pdf
    I'll leave people to draw their own conclusions as to what the statements might mean in reality.
    Last edited by Spectator; 05-05-2011 at 09:49 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  2. #1402
    As per slurs .. I think if you work long enough in H1B ... you will come to realize that it is slavery. Whether you admit it or not is another matter. And while US is the greatest place for proving your potential, unfortunately the immigration system coupled with the anti-immigrant sentiment is holding the immigrants back in particular IC immigrants.

    Yes you can suck it up. But my advice was for especially the EB3ICs who if they choose to can and should make a legal case to file 485 without date being current. Its ok to disagree too. Its a mere advice.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  3. #1403
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    Trackitt Extrapolations

    I just want to return to the subject of Trackitt data and extrapolation briefly.

    Usually we use it to help predict EB2-ROW progress and this is based on the number of Trackitt approvals this FY compared to those in the previous year (where we know how many they represent in the real world).

    Some may recall that I have some concern that the very different number of Trackitt approvals in October 2009 versus October 2010 may skew the figures, since there is a danger that some October approvals may represent cases where the visa allocation has actually been made from the previous FY quota.

    Nonetheless, even using the standard analysis, we have seen EB2-ROW (excl M-P) rise from 61% in October to 98% by the end of April.

    An analysis on the same basis for EB2-I shows that the % at the end of March, compared to last year is just 68% (it's the same at the end of April by the way).

    Given we also know from the VB that EB2-I probably reached the 2,803 limit by the end of March, 68% doesn't seem to fit the known facts.

    To be true, last year EB2-I would have consumed 147% of this year's total by the end of March - 4.1k visas. I think it is fair to say that, at that level, some action or comment might have been seen by DOS last year.

    In fact, last year the Cut Off Date stalled at 01FEB05 until July, when the Spillover was released.

    If the "October effect" is removed or normalized, then EB2-I is a little less than 100% of last year's figure. If true, it would explain why the Cut Off Dates did not advance, since they had reached the annual limit.

    Now, if the above analysis is true for EB2-I, it is also true for EB2-ROW (excl. M-P).

    The 98% from the standard analysis at the end of April becomes 110-115%. That might be considered to be consistent with the increase in PERM certifications.

    I am NOT saying that EB2-ROW will end the year at 110-115% of last years total, only that it may be higher at this point in the year. As USCIS concentrate on EB2-IC approvals, it is quite possible (maybe even probable) that EB2-ROW approvals will slow down, so I don't think all is lost by any means.

    I will continue to monitor the figures month by month.

    I suspect not everybody will agree with my analysis, but I thought it was interesting enough to share. I may be pushing the boundaries too far.

    It is not a viewpoint that I intend to flog to death on the forum. Everybody must decide for themselves whether it has any merit at all.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  4. #1404
    Hey spec ... very well spoken words. I am thinking we should have a trackitt tracker in our FACTS section.

    I will do it before sunday. If somebody wants to do it pls go ahead and post it.

    Here is what I will do:

    EB2 Section
    1- Overall EB2 status YTD and Full Year Projected vs Prior Year & % change & Projected contribution change to SOFAD
    2 - Same as 1 for EB2 IC
    3 - Same as 1 for EB2 ROW MP
    4 - Same as 1 for EB1
    5 - Same as 1 for EB4/5

    I don't think we need EB3 at all given everything is retrogressed.

    Let me know if there is anything else we should be adding in there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    I just want to return to the subject of Trackitt data and extrapolation briefly.

    Usually we use it to help predict EB2-ROW progress and this is based on the number of Trackitt approvals this FY compared to those in the previous year (where we know how many they represent in the real world).

    Some may recall that I have some concern that the very different number of Trackitt approvals in October 2009 versus October 2010 may skew the figures, since there is a danger that some October approvals may represent cases where the visa allocation has actually been made from the previous FY quota.

    Nonetheless, even using the standard analysis, we have seen EB2-ROW (excl M-P) rise from 61% in October to 98% by the end of April.

    An analysis on the same basis for EB2-I shows that the % at the end of March, compared to last year is just 68% (it's the same at the end of April by the way).

    Given we also know from the VB that EB2-I probably reached the 2,803 limit by the end of March, 68% doesn't seem to fit the known facts.

    To be true, last year EB2-I would have consumed 147% of this year's total by the end of March - 4.1k visas. I think it is fair to say that, at that level, some action or comment might have been seen by DOS last year.

    In fact, last year the Cut Off Date stalled at 01FEB05 until July, when the Spillover was released.

    If the "October effect" is removed or normalized, then EB2-I is a little less than 100% of last year's figure. If true, it would explain why the Cut Off Dates did not advance, since they had reached the annual limit.

    Now, if the above analysis is true for EB2-I, it is also true for EB2-ROW (excl. M-P).

    The 98% from the standard analysis at the end of April becomes 110-115%. That might be considered to be consistent with the increase in PERM certifications.

    I am NOT saying that EB2-ROW will end the year at 110-115% of last years total, only that it may be higher at this point in the year. As USCIS concentrate on EB2-IC approvals, it is quite possible (maybe even probable) that EB2-ROW approvals will slow down, so I don't think all is lost by any means.

    I will continue to monitor the figures month by month.

    I suspect not everybody will agree with my analysis, but I thought it was interesting enough to share. I may be pushing the boundaries too far.

    It is not a viewpoint that I intend to flog to death on the forum. Everybody must decide for themselves whether it has any merit at all.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  5. #1405
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    Q,

    Good idea. I would plead with you to split EB2-ROW-M-P into at least EB2-ROW and EB2-MP.

    Coverage of EB2-MP is not very good in Trackitt and has very different % to EB2-ROW.

    I don't actually even track EB2-MP because of that fact and tend to use historical data for them. They only tend to account for about 3k anyway.

    Thanks for considering it. I'll post the figures I have for EB2-I, EB2-ROW (excl MP) and EB2 ALL when the section is added. You can then extract them and delete the post.

    Edited to add that I have the EB1 numbers as well, which I am happy to add.
    Last edited by Spectator; 05-05-2011 at 11:55 AM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  6. #1406
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    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    I don't think we need EB3 at all given everything is retrogressed.
    I agree they probably aren't worth publishing.

    I was thinking they may have an indirect role to play.

    Here's my logic.

    Last year, CO was very conservative with EB3, since he appeared to be worried about hidden demand.

    Eventually he released quite large number in Q4 and Cut Off Dates advanced. This meant that quite a large proportion of EB3 approvals were made during Spillover season. In fact EB3 approvals in Q4 appear to represent 60% of total EB3 approvals for the year.

    Overall approvals at this point in the year (based on Trackitt) are double those of last year.

    Hopefully, this should mean that relatively fewer EB3 approvals need to be made in Q4. The VB talks of steady progress.

    This and maybe lower EB1 numbers, might mean that the overall workload for USCIS in Q4 (spillover season) is actually no higher than it was last year, despite a lot more spillover numbers.

    Within the workload, the % of EB2 approvals will just be much higher.

    I thought that was a rather cheery conclusion.

    As long as there are sufficient applications to process, we probably shouldn't worry too much about USCIS' ability to do so.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #1407
    DOL Released Latest PERM DATA (From OCT-2010 to Mar 2011): It says Q2 data but the mdb file actually contains both Q1 and Q2 figures (OCT 2010 to MAR 2011)

    http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

  8. #1408
    TOTAL (OCT 2010 to MAR 2011) PERM COUNT (Certified and Certified-Expired) : 35,204

    INDIA COUNT : 17,830

    CHINA COUNT : 2115

    So based on the above, Approximate PERM ROW Count(EB2 + EB3) : 15,000 for Six months (OCT 2010 to MAR 2011)

  9. #1409
    Thanks. So if we assume 60% is EB2 ... that's 18K full year demand for EB2 ROW. That translates into full year 36K demand (roughly) for 485. Then there is already 11K ROW inventory. So if USCIS wishes to full throttle on then ROW may yield actually zero SOFAD. Even if we assume that Q4 labor will NOT translate into 485.... that still makes this number 27K+11K = 38K which is more than the quota.


    Quote Originally Posted by alex99 View Post
    TOTAL (OCT 2010 to MAR 2011) PERM COUNT (Certified and Certified-Expired) : 35,204

    INDIA COUNT : 17,830

    CHINA COUNT : 2115

    So based on the above, Approximate PERM ROW Count(EB2 + EB3) : 15,000 for Six months (OCT 2010 to MAR 2011)
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  10. #1410
    gcseeker and others

    I want to participate in the political/economic discussion and how they relate to immigration and govt policy. I think this thread is slowly diverting away and we should open a separate thread.

  11. #1411
    Bieber

    I am glad you did not take my inputs the wrong way .I will be more than happy to participate in a discussion involving the same.I strongly beleive the political/economic side of things is an crucial cog in the wheel of immigration and discussion involving that will also help temper the expectations of some of the applicants.At the very least it will add some more information.

    Also I agree this wonderful thread can get diverted with these posts.Let us start a separate specific thread to discuss these.

    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    gcseeker and others

    I want to participate in the political/economic discussion and how they relate to immigration and govt policy. I think this thread is slowly diverting away and we should open a separate thread.

  12. #1412
    Q

    I hope one or more of ur assumptions will be wrong (i'm sure you want same)

    1. For EB2 Row, 485/Perm ratio is 2:1 (I read somewhere in this thread, it's 1.3)

    2. Every perm will have an approved 140 and 485

    3 . 60% of perms are EB2.

    on a side note, those 17k India perms will atleast turn into 25k I485 inventory, if every year adds this kind of numbers no matter what, the prospects are not encouraging

  13. #1413
    Bieber

    I seriously hope my assumptions are wrong. Would welcome corrections...
    As per opening another thread for soft topics (i.e. not related to hard data) ... anybody is welcome to open any thread. No worries. Needless to say I will participate too.

    Quote Originally Posted by bieber View Post
    Q

    I hope one or more of ur assumptions will be wrong (i'm sure you want same)

    1. For EB2 Row, 485/Perm ratio is 2:1 (I read somewhere in this thread, it's 1.3)

    2. Every perm will have an approved 140 and 485

    3 . 60% of perms are EB2.

    on a side note, those 17k India perms will atleast turn into 25k I485 inventory, if every year adds this kind of numbers no matter what, the prospects are not encouraging
    Last edited by qesehmk; 05-05-2011 at 05:26 PM.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  14. #1414
    With a EB2-I PD of very late Q3 of 2010, I am expecting to be current in Q3 of 2017 at the earliest with the current trend. Who knows after that when it will be for GC. I hope I stick around till then.

  15. #1415
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    bieber:

    Over the last few days, this thread is been involved in an immense undertaking to data-mine the perm data. The outcome reveled a significant setback to EB2 movement in the near future. You have exactly listed some the points that I have been hoping would also turn out be less sharper that it seems to be. Especially the percentage of EB2s in the perm data. I am also hoping the PWMB numbers would turn out to be not as bad as it seems. But I do not think PWMB numbers will be forgiving and my hopes will be in vain. China did have a bit longer current status in July 07 than India and that did permit them to overtake the number of applications filed by India. That only goes to show that there is a lot more EB2I PWMB to come. Hoping for the best.

  16. #1416
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    With a EB2-I PD of very late Q3 of 2010, I am expecting to be current in Q3 of 2017 at the earliest with the current trend. Who knows after that when it will be for GC. I hope I stick around till then.
    Oh dear, just as I was getting ready to bike my way home. Now I am gonna weep all the way to my bed.

  17. #1417
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    Spec (and all)

    I posted the trackitt trends and a simple model based on that trend in the FACTS AND DATA forum. It points to 32K SOFAD in addition to IC quota.

    Take a look and let me know if we need to add / change
    Last edited by qesehmk; 05-05-2011 at 07:28 PM. Reason: removed unnecessary quotes

  18. #1418
    guys... if the sofad is around 32K then we can definitely see the dates move towards Dec 07 and then retrogress back if needed. Also,remember....there were emails from NVC to pay 794$ for 485 CP even for guys with priority date Nov 07... what do you guys say...

  19. #1419
    Quote Originally Posted by admin View Post
    Spec (and all)

    I posted the trackitt trends and a simple model based on that trend in the FACTS AND DATA forum. It points to 32K SOFAD in addition to IC quota.

    Take a look and let me know if we need to add / change
    Either I am drunk and do not understand the 32K conclusion OR I am sober and I find the math wrong: 16 + 0 + 6 + 2 + 7 -4 + 0 + 8 = 35K

    Why is it showing 32K? Posting here because I did not see a reply link in the facts and data subforum.

  20. #1420
    AC only add up the green color. That will give you 32.

    That section doesn't have reply all on purpose. So that we only use it to post factual data and if somebody wants to discuss we can do it here.

    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    Either I am drunk and do not understand the 32K conclusion OR I am sober and I find the math wrong: 16 + 0 + 6 + 2 + 7 -4 + 0 + 8 = 35K

    Why is it showing 32K? Posting here because I did not see a reply link in the facts and data subforum.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  21. #1421
    Thanks for clarifying Q. Makes sense. My BP is rising each day because I find myself on the edge. EB2I PD March7, 2007.

  22. #1422

    Lightbulb

    Keep figers crossed ... mine is mar 27 07

    Quote Originally Posted by angryclubs View Post
    Thanks for clarifying Q. Makes sense. My BP is rising each day because I find myself on the edge. EB2I PD March7, 2007.
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  23. #1423
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    Q,
    You (and people w/Feb/March'07) are almost on a knife edge where it can go either way; hope your PD can squeeze through by the end of Sep'11. My PD is July'07 and I am hoping to be current by Aug-Sep'12.

  24. #1424
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Q,
    You (and people w/Feb/March'07) are almost on a knife edge where it can go either way; hope your PD can squeeze through by the end of Sep'11. My PD is July'07 and I am hoping to be current by Aug-Sep'12.
    My PD is 12/02/2006 (EB2-I) and I heard quite discouraging update from my Attorney. In the past, any updates from my Attorney related to immigration have been spot-on, so really worried. Gosh, this wait sucks !

  25. #1425
    Quote Originally Posted by TeluguBidda View Post
    My PD is 12/02/2006 (EB2-I) and I heard quite discouraging update from my Attorney. In the past, any updates from my Attorney related to immigration have been spot-on, so really worried. Gosh, this wait sucks !
    What updates have your heard?

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