EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Veni

I create a separate category for all supporting data and calculations in a folder called "FACTS AND DATA". Lets put any useful calculations there.

Thanks!

Thanks Q,
If you like you may want to throw the following table next to it!


FY2005- EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----EB4 ---EB5 ---- Total
INDIA ----- 6,336 ---16,687 ---23,399 ----733 -----5 --- 47,160
CHINA ----- 6,422 ----9,346 ----4,998 ----118 ----44 ----20,928
MEXICO -----2,932 ------368 ---12,632 ----739 -----5 ----16,676
PHIL. ------- 596 ----- 510 ---11,129 ----484 -----4 ----12,723
ROW -------50,058 ---16,501 ---69,972 --8,026 ---291 ---144,848
Total -----66,344 -- 43,412 --122,130 -10,100 ---349 ---242,335

FY2006-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
INDIA ----- 3,156 ---3,719 ---3,177 -----610 -------2 ----10,664
CHINA ----- 3,278 ---3,344 ---2,739 ------98 ------63 -----9,522
MEXICO -----1,637 -----293 ---7,735 -----722 -------0 ----10,387
PHIL. --------411 ---- 649 ---4,709 -----467 -------0 -----6,236
ROW -------29,007 --14,420 --44,985 ---7,664 -----437 ----96,513
Total -----37,489 --22,425 --63,345 ---9,561 -----502 ---133,322

FY2007-EBi465
- Country -- EB1 ------ EB2 ----- EB3 -----EB4 ---EB5 ---- Total
INDIA -----2,855 -----6,203 ---17,985 -----357 -----4 ----27,404
CHINA -----2,982 -----6,797 ----3,681 ------45 ----73 ----13,578
MEXICO ----1,109 -------900 ---10,174 -----408 -----0 ----12,183
PHIL. -------271 -----1,608 ----8,710------278 -----0 ----10,589
ROW ------19,590 ----28,892 ---37,115 ---3,706 ---394 ----89,697
Total ----26,807 --- 44,400 ---77,665 ---4,794 ---471 ---154,137

FY2008-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ----Total
INDIA ----- 5,326 --14,806 ---3,745 -----461 ------19 ---24,357
CHINA ----- 5,602 ---6,955 ---2,057 ------93 -----360 ---15,067
MEXICO -----1,456 ---1,347 ---5,325 -----680 ------15 ----8,823
PHIL. --------310 ---2,057 ---6,154 -----418 -------4 ----8,943
ROW -------23,890 --44,934 --29,884 ---6,006 ---1,045 --105,759
Total -----36,584---70,499---47,165 ---7,658 ---1,443 --162,949

FY2009-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ----- EB3 ---- EB4 ----EB5 --- Total
INDIA ----- 6,672 ---10,124 ---2,306 -----771 -----34 ---19,907
CHINA -----4,999 --- -3,046 ---1,077 ------91 --1,828 ---11,041
MEXICO ----2,010 -------922 ---4,566 -----815 ------5 ----8,318
PHIL. ------ 524 -----1,853 ---5,540 -----467 ------1 ----8,385
ROW ------26,774 ----30,123 --26,309 ---7,855 --1,354 ---92,415
Total ----40,979 --- 46,049---39,798 ---9,999 --3,222 --140,047

FY2010-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ---- EB3 ---EB4 ---- EB5 ---Total
INDIA ----- 6,741 ---19,961 ---3,306 ---824 ------62 ---30,624
CHINA ------6,741 ----6,505 ---3,676 ----98 -----772 ---17,792
MEXICO -----1,835 ------817 ---7,740 ---943 ------50 ---11,385
PHIL. ------- 407 ----2,162 ---3,651 ---563 -------3 ----6,786
ROW -------25,302 ---24,427 --24,058 -8,620 -----998 ---83,405
Total -----41,026 ---53,872---42,431 11,048 ---1,885 --150,262

[qesehmk]

Thanks veni. That is 485 data right? I will put it under 485 thread.

Can you summarize and say what this data means please? This way readers don't have to make an effort to understand conclusion.

Spec same with the labor data ... if you would like to summarize your labor data into a conculsion that would be nice.

Thanks Q,
If you like you may want to throw the following table next to it!


FY2005- EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 -- Total
INDIA ----- 6,336 ---16,687 ---23,399 ---733 -----5 --- 47,160
CHINA ----- 6,422 ----9,346 ----4,998 ---118 ----44 ----20,928
MEXICO -----2,932 ------368 ---12,632 ---739 -----5 ----16,676
PHIL. ------- 596 ----- 510 ---11,129 ---484 -----4 ----12,723
ROW -------50,058 ---16,501 ---69,972 -8,026 ---291 ---144,848
Total -----66,344 -- 43,412 --122,130 10,100 ---349 ---242,335

FY2006-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
INDIA ----- 3,156 ---3,719 ---3,177 -----610 -------2 ----10,664
CHINA ----- 3,278 ---3,344 ---2,739 ------98 ------63 -----9,522
MEXICO -----1,637 -----293 ---7,735 -----722 -------0 ----10,387
PHIL. --------411 ---- 649 ---4,709 -----467 -------0 -----6,236
ROW -------29,007 --14,420 --44,985 ---7,664 -----437 ----96,513
Total -----37,489 --22,425 --63,345 ---9,561 -----502 ---133,322

FY2007-EBi465
- Country -- EB1 -- EB2 -- EB3 -- EB4 -- EB5 -- Total
INDIA ----- 2,855 ---6,203 ---17,985 ---357 ---4 ---27,404
CHINA --- 2,982 ---6,797 ---3,681 ---45 ---73 ---13,578
MEXICO ----1,109 -------900 ---10,174 ---408 ---0 ---12,183
PHIL. -------271 -----1,608 ---8,710 ------278 -----0 ----10,589
ROW ------19,590 ----28,892 ---37,115 ---3,706 ---394 ----89,697
Total ----26,807 --- 44,400 ---77,665 ---4,794 ---471 ---154,137

FY2008-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
INDIA ----- 5,326 --14,806 ---3,745 -----461 ------19 ---24,357
CHINA ----- 5,602 ---6,955 ---2,057 ------93 -----360 ---15,067
MEXICO -----1,456 ---1,347 ---5,325 -----680 ------15 ----8,823
PHIL. --------310 ---2,057 ---6,154 -----418 -------4 ----8,943
ROW -------23,890 --44,934 --29,884 ---6,006 ---1,045 --105,759
Total -----36,584---70,499---47,165 ---7,658 ---1,443 --162,949

FY2009-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
INDIA ----- 6,672 ---10,124 ---2,306 -----771 -----34 ---19,907
CHINA -----4,999 --- -3,046 ---1,077 ------91 --1,828 ---11,041
MEXICO ----2,010 -------922 ---4,566 -----815 ------5 ----8,318
PHIL. ------ 524 -----1,853 ---5,540 -----467 ------1 ----8,385
ROW ------26,774 ----30,123 --26,309 ---7,855 --1,354 ---92,415
Total ----40,979 --- 46,049---39,798 ---9,999 --3,222 --140,047

FY2010-EBi485
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ---- EB3 ---EB4 ---- EB5 ---Total
INDIA ----- 6,741 ---19,961 ---3,306 ---824 ------62 ---30,624
CHINA ------6,741 ----6,505 ---3,676 ----98 -----772 ---17,792
MEXICO -----1,835 ------817 ---7,740 ---943 ------50 ---11,385
PHIL. ------- 407 ----2,162 ---3,651 ---563 -------3 ----6,786
ROW -------25,302 ---24,427 --24,058 -8,620 -----998 ---83,405
Total -----41,026 ---53,872---42,431 11,048 ---1,885 --150,262

[Gclongwait]

I just had a question regarding porting. I see the gurus keep assuming that porting will increase every year. Is there any reason to believe that porting in 2011 will be any more than 2010 or 2009 for that matter?

It has been quite clear for atleast 4 years now that EB2 is a tortoise and EB3 is a snail so I would think snail --> tortoise should be nearly the same for atleast the last 2-3 years.

[veni001]

Thanks veni. That is 485 data right? I will put it under 485 thread.

Can you summarize and say what this data means please? This way readers don't have to make an effort to understand conclusion.

Spec same with the labor data ... if you would like to summarize your labor data into a conculsion that would be nice.

Q,
Yes, It is the EB-i485 approval data published by DOS by country for FY2005 - FY2010.

[Spectator]

Thanks veni. That is 485 data right? I will put it under 485 thread.

Can you summarize and say what this data means please? This way readers don't have to make an effort to understand conclusion.

Spec same with the labor data ... if you would like to summarize your labor data into a conculsion that would be nice.

Q, I am not entirely sure what you want.

I have edited my post and put an explanation at the bottom.

Hope that serves your purpose. Let me know if it doesn't and exactly what you are looking for.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thanks. I utilized your latest update and pulled the explanation at top. Check in the sub-forum "FACTS and DATA".

I think having FACTS and DATA separately accessible will keep it clean for people who are looking specifically for them.

Q, I am not entirely sure what you want.

I have edited my post and put an explanation at the bottom.

Hope that serves your purpose. Let me know if it doesn't and exactly what you are looking for.

[vishnu]

The main reason USCIS is not wasting visas anymore (at least we believe they will not) is the fact they have pending inventory which they have pre-adjudicated. Once the current inventory as per demand data gets over (unclear when but the optimist in me stays by September of this year), wouldn't they want to move dates beyond just a month or so. They may not make it current, but I would think Dos would move dates at least 3-6 months to ensure that USCIS have enough inventory to work on to avoid wasting visa numbers. Thoughts gurus?

[Spectator]

The main reason USCIS is not wasting visas anymore (at least we believe they will not) is the fact they have pending inventory which they have pre-adjudicated. Once the current inventory as per demand data gets over (unclear when but the optimist in me stays by September of this year), wouldn't they want to move dates beyond just a month or so. They may not make it current, but I would think Dos would move dates at least 3-6 months to ensure that USCIS have enough inventory to work on to avoid wasting visa numbers. Thoughts gurus?

vishnu,

Yes, that is what DOS would do in my personal opinion, although I don't know how far ahead the dates would move.

However, I think you are being super optimistic in thinking the backlog will be cleared this year, particularly in light of the number of people who still have to file with PDs of Jan-Jul 2007.

If the backlog is not cleared this year, DOS will have the potential luxury of moving the dates very slowly at the start of FY2012, since the 7% (2,803) and no more than 27% in each of the first 3 quarters rules will be in effect at the beginning of the year.

Then sometime in the period May-Jul 2012 DOS can think about moving the dates forward in a controlled manner. The timing and amount of movement might depend on how long DOS believes it will take for new applications to turn into demand for visas.

Although the visibility of future cases from USCIS may be lacking hard numbers from USCIS themselves, DOS are not stupid. They know the breakdown of their own cases at NVC and can probably fairly accurately extrapolate those numbers to arrive at likely USCIS numbers. They can also do the same calculations on likely numbers of future I-485 numbers that have been presented in earlier discussions here.

If they get it wrong, DOS have the option of moving EB3-ROW forward in the last month to consume any spare visas using pre-adjudicated cases. I think this would be a last resort, due to the protests it would cause - but it is an option.

My thoughts anyway.

[qesehmk]

Spec ... I agree that backlog may not get cleared this year.

However as per the DOS having luxury.... I am not so sure. Next year they will again have 20-30K SOFAD. If they wait until May-Jun 2012 to move dates ...they simply won't be able to utilize SOFAD. So teh dates will move ahead at least 9 months prior to SOFAD IF USCIS WERE TO FULLY UTILIZE VISAS WITHIN EB2 CATEEGORY.

I think you are being super optimistic in thinking the backlog will be cleared this year.

If the backlog is not cleared this year, DOS will have the potential luxury of moving the dates very slowly at the start of FY2012, since the 7% (2,803) and no more than 27% in each of the first 3 quarters rules will be in effect at the beginning of the year.

Then sometime in the period May-Jul 2012 DOS can think about moving the dates forward in a controlled manner.

[anuran]

Next year they will again have 20-30K SOFAD. If they wait until May-Jun 2012 to move dates ...they simply won't be able to utilize SOFAD.

But when do they get an exact idea of how much SOFAD there will be? They cannot move cutoff dates based on an arbitrary prediction of SOFAD. Or do they get an exact estimate at the end of the first quarter?

[qesehmk]

That is one of the reason why massive forward movement followed by retrogression is a good idea from USCIS DOS perspective.

It allows them to take in a bunch of applications and then chew over them at their own speed and still not waste visas in case there is significant SOFAD.

To answer your question .... they have a gut feel even at the beginning of the year simply based on the PERM and 140 pipeline. As year progresses .. by end of Q2 they have pretty darn good idea how the year is going to end. However that would be too late and so the movement needs to happen much earlier.

But when do they get an exact idea of how much SOFAD there will be? They cannot move cutoff dates based on an arbitrary prediction of SOFAD. Or do they get an exact estimate at the end of the first quarter?

[Spectator]

Spec ... I agree that backlog may not get cleared this year.

However as per the DOS having luxury.... I am not so sure. Next year they will again have 20-30K SOFAD. If they wait until May-Jun 2012 to move dates ...they simply won't be able to utilize SOFAD. So teh dates will move ahead at least 9 months prior to SOFAD IF USCIS WERE TO FULLY UTILIZE VISAS WITHIN EB2 CATEEGORY.

I agree with anuran.

DOS are constrained by law as to what they can do. Until April, only 54% of visas can be issued and DOS can only move the Cut Off Dates consistent with visas being available. April introduces another potential 27%. That seems the absolute earliest any movement could be made.

Underutilization in other Categories/Countries gives some wiggle room, whilst still staying within the quarterly limits.

However, I think DOS need until at least April (when the May VB Cut Off Dates are set) to judge the trends for all Categories for the year.

That gives 5 full months to adjudicate new applications and is 3 months ahead of Spillover being released. USCIS have to "step up to the plate" and ensure that happens. As I said previously, DOS have a fallback to not waste visas, if USCIS are unable to do so.

It would be a greater "crime" within DOS to advance EB2 IC too far and for other non-limited Countries to be deprived of visas. The conservative nature of DOS suggests they won't let that happen.

At the end of the day, none of us knows what is going to happen. It does make for an interesting discussion though and you may well be correct.

[qesehmk]

That's fine ... lets agree to disagree. Good that there is not a groupthink here.

I particularly would disagree about

Quote
It would be a greater "crime" within DOS to advance EB2 IC too far and for other non-limited Countries to be deprived of visas.
Unquote

The 7% limit coupled with FA FD related rules strictly in order of PD would ensure that other non-limited countries are not deprived of visas.

I agree with anuran.

DOS are constrained by law as to what they can do. Until April, only 54% of visas can be issued and DOS can only move the Cut Off Dates consistent with visas being available. April introduces another potential 27%. That seems the absolute earliest any movement could be made.

Underutilization in other Categories/Countries gives some wiggle room, whilst still staying within the quarterly limits.

However, I think DOS need until at least April (when the May VB Cut Off Dates are set) to judge the trends for all Categories for the year.

That gives 5 full months to adjudicate new applications and is 3 months ahead of Spillover being released. USCIS have to "step up to the plate" and ensure that happens. As I said previously, DOS have a fallback to not waste visas, if USCIS are unable to do so.

It would be a greater "crime" within DOS to advance EB2 IC too far and for other non-limited Countries to be deprived of visas. The conservative nature of DOS suggests they won't let that happen.

At the end of the day, none of us knows what is going to happen. It does make for an interesting discussion though and you may well be correct.

[bieber]

If they don't accept the new I485s beforehand, they will be in a situation where the only choice would be to make the dates current (not some random date). Unless monthly spillover rules are kept in place there is no way USCIS can set a date other than current to know the demand.

it's the time DOS/CIS needs to introduce another date system to accept new 485s ahead (may be an year in advance to cutoff) and move the cutoff dates as per spill over availablity

Spec, just by moving dates aggressively for EB2IC to build the inventory, there would be no harm for non IC countries. you are correct if they issue visas to retrogressed countries by keeping non IC people in line

[bieber]

I'm waiting for filing I485 so I would agree my perspective is biased but I don't think I'm posting with irrational reasoning

[Spectator]

That's fine ... lets agree to disagree. Good that there is not a groupthink here.

I particularly would disagree about

Quote
It would be a greater "crime" within DOS to advance EB2 IC too far and for other non-limited Countries to be deprived of visas.
Unquote

The 7% limit coupled with FA FD related rules strictly in order of PD would ensure that other non-limited countries are not deprived of visas.

I think you slightly misunderstood my post, but let's leave it there.

It is a very contentious issue and we can only speculate how it is going to be handled.

I think we can probably agree that any aggressive forward movement would almost certainly be followed by substantial retrogression (outside of spillover season).

[veni001]

If they don't accept the new I485s beforehand, they will be in a situation where the only choice would be to make the dates current (not some random date). Unless monthly spillover rules are kept in place there is no way USCIS can set a date other than current to know the demand.

it's the time DOS/CIS needs to introduce another date system to accept new 485s ahead (may be an year in advance to cutoff) and move the cutoff dates as per spill over availablity

Spec, just by moving dates aggressively for EB2IC to build the inventory, there would be no harm for non IC countries. you are correct if they issue visas to retrogressed countries by keeping non IC people in line

bieber,
I agree to some extent, But only after EB2I&C PD is moved to July 2007, until then they have enough cases to work with! And also they will be getting new demand(PWMB and porting, almost ~25k) as EB2I&C PD progressing towards 01AUG2007.

If and when DOS makes EB2 PD current(assume July 2012/2013) they will get enough case to work with for another 6 years from that time! ( assuming SOFAD will continue at equal or greater than 2010/11 rate during that 6 years)

[anuran]

it's the time DOS/CIS needs to introduce another date system to accept new 485s ahead (may be an year in advance to cutoff) and move the cutoff dates as per spill over availablity

Since we are not sure about the system, they are already adopting, we cannot suggest that they adopt an alternate system. One thing I see missing is transparency. CIS is not telling us why they moved the date by 2 months in the May bulletin. Just throwing the demand numbers that was used to determine the cutoff dates provides us with no no clues as to why they moved, say 2 months in May bulletin.

[qesehmk]

I think we can probably agree that any aggressive forward movement would almost certainly be followed by substantial retrogression (outside of spillover season).

Yes. I agree on this one.

If they don't accept the new I485s beforehand, they will be in a situation where the only choice would be to make the dates current (not some random date).

Bieber you make a good point here. Agree.
I think that's how the dynamics will work. I do not know about the timing. But in terms of movement .. thats the dynamic.

[anuran]

it's the time DOS/CIS needs to introduce another date system to accept new 485s ahead (may be an year in advance to cutoff) and move the cutoff dates as per spill over availablity

Other than transparency, they can do something else. Exact spillover numbers are known only at the end of the FY. But at the end the FY they have no processing power to utilize off those numbers which may be ~20k or so. Hence they have to do start using partial estimated spillover numbers way before the end of the FY. They have to do that to avoid wasting that 20k. Instead what they can actually do is, FY10 spillover could be carried over to FY11. That way they can utilize the cap for 2011 and the spill from 2010 at the same time and also provide us with better estimates. But I do not drive the policies and procedures at CIS.

[bieber]

veni

i agree with you, not sure how you wanted to connect the blue sentences. I don't see a reason why they would want to choose from jan1st 2008 (end of calendar), oct 1st 2008 (end of fiscal), oct 1st 2009 (known information is 2008/2009 demand is low) other than making current.

I know they can be as unpredicted as possible but here we are just trying to understand their logic/motive behind this.

[kd2008]

If you look at family-based categories, DOS/USCIS were faulted by Ombudsman for not moving dates aggressively and wasting visa numbers - which then spilled over to employment based categories.

So in the last year DOS aggressively moved the dates only to substantially retrogress them later . Esp. F2A - Its Dec 2010 visa bulletin cut off date was Aug. 2010. In May 2011 visa bulletin that date has retrogressed to 08 June 2007.

Something similar to will happen for EB2 retrogressed nations. I think DOS will try to move dates to the point that will give them approx. 30K cases (based on last few years consumption) or so and then retrogress and try to consume them in the following year.

Rest assured, the date movement will be volatile with people getting pissed off that someone else got GC in spite of later PD etc.

[veni001]

veni

i agree with you, not sure how you wanted to connect the blue sentences. I don't see a reason why they would want to choose from jan1st 2008 (end of calendar), oct 1st 2008 (end of fiscal), oct 1st 2009 (known information is 2008/2009 demand is low) other than making current.

I know they can be as unpredicted as possible but here we are just trying to understand their logic/motive behind this.

biber,
I was pointing those two because those statements contradict each other.
I think we need to closely watch what they are doing with FB movement lately.

[veni001]

If you look at family-based categories, DOS/USCIS were faulted by Ombudsman for not moving dates aggressively and wasting visa numbers - which then spilled over to employment based categories.

So in the last year DOS aggressively moved the dates only to substantially retrogress them later . Esp. F2A - Its Dec 2010 visa bulletin cut off date was Aug. 2010. In May 2011 visa bulletin that date has retrogressed to 08 June 2007.

Something similar to will happen for EB2 retrogressed nations. I think DOS will try to move dates to the point that will give them approx. 30K cases (based on last few years consumption) or so and then retrogress and try to consume them in the following year.

Rest assured, the date movement will be volatile with people getting pissed off that someone else got GC in spite of later PD etc.

kd2008,
This is a very good observation, FB is almost always retrogressed and see what they did last year, they did not make it current to see what is out there.
Since USCIS know EB2I&C demand very well now( at least they can look at their i140 receipts/approval data)they can/may implement the same here!

[Spectator]

Some great reponses guys.

I probably presented the most conservative option in the hope that we would have a good discussion. However, it is not an impossible scenario, although maybe unlikely.

I do agree that DOS would probably like to have some known demand pending - the question is how much.

As has been pointed out, DOS did not make various FB Categories Current to stimulate demand. There are also some obvious differences regarding AOS vs CP between FB and EB. CP cases have a substantial dropout rate, particularly in FB where the wait time is so long.

In fact, DOS moved the FB dates forward over a period of 8 months and there were only really 3 months where the movement was substantial.

Possibly one lesson for DOS, was that it takes time for the demand to surface. In reality, they probably moved the dates too far and then had to retrogress dramatically. For FB, there was nowhere else for the visas to go if there was not enough demand generated.

The current EB2 backlog for IC is in the region of 33k.

In eventually moving the Cut Off Dates to July 2007, another 7k demand will be generated by PWMB.

Moving the Cut Off Date to December 2007 will generate another additional 15k demand.

So from today, the EB2 IC demand would be 33 + 7 + 15 = 55k plus porting numbers to December 2007.

After porting, this year will likely consume something like 29-34k of that 55k.

Even at the lower end, 21k + porting numbers is a fairly healthy buffer for DOS.

Therefore, I don't see the dates moving much beyond December 2007, even if DOS want to be quite aggressive.

As Q pointed out, Cut Off Date movement does take time to translate to visa demand, so possibly the movement would have to be relatively early, but I don't believe it will be in this fiscal year.

Feel free to rip it apart.